If you plan to bet the Belmont on Saturday, go for the price. That's the hot tip from Jerry Brown, proprietor of Thoro-Graph, the speed-figure guru whose daily trackings of horse performances are closely studied by owners, trainers and horseplayers.
"This year's crop of 3-year-olds is pretty weak," Brown said Monday. "People say that every year, but this is one time when they are correct. I think late-developing 3-year-olds are going to take control of the division as the year goes on."
It happened last year, when Summer Bird jumped up relatively late in the season to win the Belmont Stakes, then captured the Travers and the Jockey Club Gold Cup before being anointed the 3-year-old of 2009. It could happen again this year, in Brown's view, because the Derby and Preakness winners produced relatively inferior speed numbers.
"Super Saver's Kentucky Derby came up a very weak figure," said Brown. "We take into account ground lost in the running, and Super Saver had a great trip. When you adjust it for that, Super Saver didn't have much of a figure at all."
Brown was more impressed with the Preakness.
"Lookin At Lucky's fig was big, once you build in his ground loss," he said.
Brown calculates that the first four finishers in the Preakness -- Lookin At Lucky, First Dude, Jackson Bend and Yawanna Twist -- all ran a couple of lengths faster than Super Saver in the Derby. "That's very unusual," Brown said.
As usual, Brown has some strong opinions on Saturday's Belmont, especially the likely favorites -- Ice Box, First Dude and Fly Down.
"Ice Box is just OK. He could win it, but he's not a great horse," said Brown. "This Belmont is wide open, the kind of race I'll be looking for a price.
"It's a lot to ask First Dude to come back three weeks after his big effort in the Preakness," Brown said. "The same with Fly Down. He just ran the best race of his life to win the Dwyer by six lengths. I don't think he can necessarily run that well again so soon."
Brown is not in Blue Grass winner Stately Victor's corner, either.
"He looks to me like a grass and synthetic track specialist," he said. "He has yet to show that he can run at this level on dirt.
"I really liked Make Music For Me in the Derby and he ran the best race of his life to get fourth. But even if he runs that well again, I don't think it's good enough to win the Belmont. There's a greater chance he will run worse than he will run better.
"If you ask me, First Dude, Fly Down and Make Music For Me are all candidates to 'bounce' [regress]. It's not that they don't have the ability, I just don't believe they are going to run as well here as they did in their last races, based on their form cycles."
So who does Jerry like?
"I think Uptowncharlybrown is going to run better than his odds suggest," Brown said. "I don't know if he will win, but he's flying completely under the radar.
"His trainer, Kieran McLaughlin, is a plus. He has a history of being able to get horses to run big races when fresh, and 'Charly' is fresh. The Belmont is not a tough race, and this horse is going to be a big price."
As for the future, Brown's big tip is Yawanna Twist, who ran second in the Illinois Derby and fourth in the Preakness.
"He's going to be all right, going forward," Brown enthused. "He's going to sneak in and win one of these big races at a big price, like perhaps the Haskell. He's very underrated."
So Brown thinks the Belmont favorites are vulnerable. He also thinks the eventual 3-year-old star could be in the Belmont field. That's the kind of year it is.
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