Continuing series of Baseball Joes in which Ken predicts which paired team will win more games in 2015 (“projected wins” via FanGraphs) …
Rays (82 projected wins) vs. Marlins (81)
Any case for the Rays starts with their pitching -- and that pitching looks less imposing with left-hander Drew Smyly suffering from shoulder tendinitis, closer Jake McGee down until at least late April as he recovers from arthroscopic elbow surgery, and lefty Matt Moore out until June as he recovers from Tommy John surgery.
It’s a given that the Rays won’t hit; only once during their four straight 90-win seasons from 2010 to ’13 did they finish in the top half of the league in runs scored. The Rays were last in the A.L. in runs last season, and even if they win the Steven Souza-Wil Myers exchange, they’ve still lost their best offensive player, Ben Zobrist. Could get ugly.
The Marlins’ offense is a lot easier to like: the outfield is electric, the Christian Yelich-Dee Gordon combination at the top of the order will be fun, and third baseman Martin Prado provides intangible as well as tangible benefits. The pitching, both starting and relief, is more questionable, but the return of righty Jose Fernandez from Tommy John surgery in June will help take care of that.
My picks: Marlins 84 wins, Rays 75
