Continuing series of Baseball Joes in which Ken predicts which paired team will win more games in 2015 (“projected wins” via FanGraphs) …
Nationals (93) vs. Orioles (79)
No way the spread will be that big, even if the Nationals win 100 games.
The Orioles, as pointed out in the Baseball Prospectus 2015 annual, have outperformed their Pythagorean record -- that is, their performance when measured by runs scored and allowed -- in each of the past four seasons. They again look somewhat dubious on paper, mostly due to a modest rotation. But they’ve consistently figured things out in the Buck Showalter-Dan Duquette era, and I’m picking them to win the division.
Yes, the Nationals look great, their rotation in particular. But two of their three starting outfielders, left fielder Jayson Werth (shoulder) and center fielder Denard Span (core) underwent recent surgeries – and the other outfielder, right fielder Bryce Harper, needs to prove he can stay healthy. Yunel Escobar at second base is another question, and so is the bullpen without Tyler Clippard.
I like the Nats. But they’re not the über-team that some portray.
My pick: Nationals 94 wins, Orioles 91
