ATLANTA -- For the second time in four seasons, the Atlanta Braves turned over two-thirds of their starting outfield during the offseason.
Martin Prado, Michael Bourn and Jason Heyward turned into Heyward, B.J. Upton and Justin Upton during the winter prior to 2013. Two seasons later, Justin Upton and Heyward were shipped off; B.J. Upton is all that remains.
When the Braves take the field on opening day against the Marlins, Upton will be flanked by Nick Markakis in right field, and the winner of next month's left-field position battle (more on that later).
Change in the outfield isn't new for Atlanta, but losing so much pop is. When Prado and Bourn left, the Braves lost just 19 combined home runs. Sending Upton and Heyward to the Padres and Cardinals, respectively, meant the Braves lost 40 dingers.
Before fretting over those long balls, consider that losing the 2012 duo was actually a bigger deal. Prado and Bourn's combine wins above replacement (WAR) was 11.6, a full two runs better than the 9.6 from Upton and Heyward in 2014. Prado and Bourn were both top 20 among MVP finishers, and Bourn an All-Star.
Even after losing that talent from 2012, the Braves finished the next season with 96 wins.
Comparing the 2015 Braves with the 2013 version is like comparing apples to school buses. But don't think Atlanta is going to be in trouble next season just because 66 percent of its outfield is new.
The Braves do, however, have three burning questions as the team packs up and heads to the Grapefruit League for spring training:
In B.J. Upton's eight years with Tampa Bay, he averaged 14.75 home runs and 29 stolen bases per season. He hit .255 and posted a WAR of 15.4.
Over the last two seasons in Atlanta, his batting average was .198, he cost the Braves minus-1.7 WAR, and averaged 10.5 home runs and 16 stolen bases.
To say the Rays got the best years out of Upton is like saying Nirvana was a decent grunge band; both huge and unnecessarily-mentioned understatements.
Can the 30-year-old center fielder turn things around, though?
The Braves' new hitting coach, Kevin Seitzer, spent three days in January working with Upton in Florida. He came away with promising news, per MLB.com.
"I feel really, really good about it, because [Upton] was very open to everything that I suggested," Seitzer said. "We had a really good three days together -- three pretty intense days together. I think he feels pretty good about what I'm going to bring, and I feel good about the adjustments he has made."
Seitzer's adjustments were in the areas of mechanics and approach, in particular hand placement in regard to a lengthy and away-from-his-body swing. Upton spent time with former Brave Chipper Jones early last season on a similar topic.
The results of working with Jones were less than fruitful.
Seitzer will have more time with Upton, and likely a much more hands-on approach. The new hitting coach will have a program ready for Upton once spring training begins. For that regimen to be a success, plate discipline will need to be as big a focus as Upton's swing.
Upton had an amazing 27.8 percent swing rate on pitches outside the strike zone last year. He became a free-swinger late in Tampa years, but early in his career, that figure was at 16.8 percent. To see real change, Upton's swing rate on balls outside the zone must be closer to 20 than 30 percent.
A figure tied with swinging at bad pitches is Upton's overall contact rate. With Tampa Bay he posted a 71.4 percent contact rate. In Atlanta though, that figure has dropped to 64.4 percent.
If Upton can improve his mechanics and approach through working with Seitzer, an increase in numbers like the one he saw last season would be nice.
Upton pushed his batting average up 24 points in 2014 to .208. Another jump like that could look like a .232 average. He also posted a three home run and an eight stolen base improvement. Getting to 15 homers and 28 stolen bases with a .232 average would keep a lot of the boo-birds Upton heard last year at bay.
Considering the Braves' lack of fear-inducing bats in the lineup combined with the fact that Upton hasn't fared well in Atlanta, a 28-point increase to his average with three more home runs and eight more swiped bags might be a stretch.
But even if he split the difference to .220 with 14 homers and 24 stolen bases, wouldn't that placate the naysayers to a certain extent?
To the fan that embraced Heyward's local-kid-makes-it-big story, the switch to Markakis is going to be extreme. But does it have to be?
Don't forget, Markakis was a product of the Atlanta metro area too. He just wasn't drafted by the Braves (Markakis went seventh overall to the Orioles in 2003) like Heyward. And outside of a six-year age difference, there are an abundance of similarities.
Last season Markakis' batting average was five points higher (.276 to .271) while Heyward's OPS was six points better (.735 to .729). Markakis hit three more home runs and both were Gold Glove winners.
Both have also declined at the plate over the last few years. And that decline is far scarier for Markakis and the Braves.
Markakis has fallen from a near-20-20 guy (he had 23 home runs and 18 stolen bases) in 2007 that drove in 112 runs, to a far less punchy, station-to-station base runner. The Braves' new right fielder is definitely on the down slope of his career at 31.
Heyward, while the matter is still in question, has more upside potential at 25, and could play a few more years before he peaks (if he hasn't already). The financials surrounding Heyward are why Atlanta had to make a move, but that's not important to the 2015 version of the Braves.
What's important is that while both players won Gold Gloves last year, the Braves will truly miss Heyward defensively.
Heyward posted a 32 defensive runs saved (DRS) while Markakis' figure was only one. Both have cannon arms, but Heyward made up for his declining bat by saving runs in the field. Markakis isn't going to be that same defensive player.
Markakis will be a downgrade on the base paths too. And for a team that's going to have to scratch and claw to manufacture runs in 2015, this is going to hurt. Markakis' ultimate base running (UBR) grade was minus-2, compared to 1.2 for Heyward. When it came to weighted stolen bases (wSB), Markakis at minus-0.7 was well behind Heyward at 1.8 in 2014.
If you're only counting Gold Gloves and batting average, don't worry too much about Markakis versus Heyward, they'll have similar output in 2015. But if you're really digging into the value a player gives to his team, especially away from the plate, Markakis won't come close to filling Heyward's shoes.
In one of the biggest, truest question marks heading into spring training for the Braves, the left field position may be absolutely up for grabs. And the number of guys competing for the job, or time there, is enormous.
If this were Vegas, the best money would be on Jonny Gomes. But there are other names to consider. Zoilo Almonte, Eric Young Jr., Dian Toscano, Joey Terdoslavich and Todd Cunningham are all going to throw their names in the hat.
Toscano is the relative unknown of the group. His first few weeks at spring training are going to be crucial for the Cuban. And since the Vegas terms have already flowed, Terdoslavich and Cunningham are pretty big long shots.
That leaves Gomes, Almonte and Young, with Gomes having the longest and most accomplished track record.
Gomes, 34, is a career .244 hitter that played a combined 112 games last season for Boston and Oakland. He hit .234 with six home runs and posted a .657 OPS. The problem with Gomes is that he doesn't hit right-handed pitching well.
In 2014, Gomes hit just .165 versus right-handed pitchers and .276 against lefties. The 111-point spread was way out of whack compared to his career 55-point deficiency versus righties. As much of an outlier as it was, last season goes to show that Gomes has to be played in a platoon situation.
Luckily for Atlanta, there are some options.
Almonte only has 149 career plate appearances to go on, but he's hit right-handed pitchers better. His .215 average versus righties is 15 points higher than against southpaws, and every extra-base hit (four doubles and two homers) he's knocked has come against right-handers.
Young only hit .229 last season in 316 plate appearances, but stole 30 bases. That speed is going to give Young some juice come audition time.
He doesn't have a huge disparity in his splits (.261 vs. lefties, .248 vs. right-handers), but because over his career his batting average is 26 points higher than Gomes' versus right-handed pitching, and almost 70 percent of Young's extra-base hits have come against righties, he makes sense in a platoon situation too.
What the Braves' left-field situation might boil down to is which platoon mate does better this spring. Will it be Gomes and Almonte splitting time in 2015, or Gomes and Young?
