MILWAUKEE — With a pitching rotation that barely resembled the one the Milwaukee Brewers started with back in April, no one would've expected the Brewers rotation to be anything more than a starting five confined to the bottom-third of every major pitching statistic.
First, they lost Chris Narveson to injury. Then, Shaun Marcum. Then, Zack Greinke was traded. And while only two original starters remained -- Yovani Gallardo and Randy Wolf -- the rest of the rotation was filled with a spot starting long relief man, a 22nd-round draft pick, and a former first rounder that dealt with a serious injury not too long ago. Needless to say, expectations were low.
But for months, the piecemeal Brewers rotation has more than surpassed its meager expectations. Perhaps the Brewers' brightest new star, Mike Fiers, hadn't even had a bad start until last week in Denver.
It's precisely there though, in the hitter-friendly atmosphere of Coors Field, that the Brewers started what has been a very downward recent slide in the rotation.
The string of bad starts began, rather ironically, after Brewers manager Ron Roenicke spoke on the subject of losing games in the early innings, a habit the Rockies had struggled with all season long. While lamenting the bullpen's struggles this season, Roenicke talked about how much worse it would be if Milwaukee wasn't even in games in the ninth inning, where they had given away so many late wins.
Since that moment, with the exception of two starts by Yovani Gallardo, the four remaining members of the Brewers rotation have had one of their worst stretches of the season. All back-to-back.
In his last two outings, Randy Wolf has now given up 11 earned runs in 12 innings. Rookie wonder boy Fiers has had two rough outings, allowing 12 runs in seven innings. Marco Estrada has given up eight runs in his last nine innings. And Mark Rogers' last outing was similarly tough with five earned runs in just six innings. Combined, the Brewers' starting pitchers have allowed 36 runs in 34 innings pitched. And in that span, Milwaukee is 1-5 in non-Gallardo starts.
This sort of regression is what we expected all along, as young guys like Fiers regress a bit closer to the mean -- even though Fiers' numbers are still Rookie of the Year-like. And while Wolf hasn't necessarily been at his best all season long, the rest of the Brewers' pitchers -- a talented but inexperienced group -- was due for a slight slide.
"I know the early innings there in Colorado weren't good for the three starters," Roenicke said. "I don't know if I'd say they're all struggling, but those early runs, we need to stay away from that. It's hard. When your offense is scoring five, six runs a game and you're really hot, you'll bounce back from it. But that's hard to do game after game. I still like our starters. They're doing a good job."
And he's right. The Brewers starting rotation had very little to do with any non-contention this year -- although it didn't necessarily help matters either. At least Fiers and Rogers will likely bounce back from a brief slump like this.
But as it stands now, and as the last week and a half has proven, the Brewers won't be able to win consistently next year with the starting staff that they have, as it stands. There's likely to be some changes anyway -- it's hard to see a situation where Wolf or even Shaun Marcum are a part of the rotation next season -- but the Brewers are going to need someone to fill the void that Greinke left when he was traded to Anaheim.
For the rest of this season though, they'll get a chance to audition the rest of the bunch. And if they truly do have their eye on the future, the Brewers should be trying as many potential starters out as possible through the end of September. Because next season -- a year that could very easily go one way or the other -- will be very important for the Brewers' trajectory, especially in the rotation.
Applaud the job that the Brewers have done with a makeshift rotation next year, but know that this month and the next are about the future, which means the sooner auditions for a spot next season are opened, the better.
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