North Carolina entered the season as a prohibitive favorite to win the national championship, but early losses at UNLV by 10 points and at Kentucky by a point had the pundits wondering about the Tar Heels.
Then a 33-point loss at Florida State pushed most national folks off Carolina's baby blue bandwagon even further, and a buzzer-beating loss at home to Duke in which UNC blew a 10-point lead with 2:09 left had the experts suggesting UNC was headed nowhere but more disappointment.
Carolina returned all five starters from a team that won the ACC regular season title with a 14-2 league mark and reached the Elite Eight of the NCAA Tournament in 2011, but the chemistry wasn't quite there early this season and well into January. The players' skills changed, notably 6-foot-11 forward John Henson, who had stepped his game away from the basket more from the previous season.
But those losses and a season-ending injury to starting guard Dexter Strickland got the Tar Heels' attention, and they have played exceptionally over the last month, and have secured a No. 1 seed in the NCAA Tournament.
Although Henson injured his left wrist Friday at the ACC Tournament, UNC may not need him until it reaches the Sweet 16. So he has time to heal.
Why they'll get to New Orleans: This team was built to win a national championship. It has all of the components – talent, balance, size, experience, coaching – and it has developed a layer of toughness that is necessary to win it all.
Why they'll flame out early: If Henson can't play, Kendall Marshall gets in foul trouble and the Tar Heels don't shoot well from the perimeter, they could go down in the second round to a team that hits perimeter shots.
Key to their title hopes: Kendall Marshall must avoid injury and foul trouble, as UNC really has no backup capable of handling a Final Four setting. In addition, if Henson gets healthy, Tyler Zeller keeps playing as he has, and Harrison Barnes finds his stroke, the Heels might be the team to beat.
