What will the Bobcats do with the No. 4 overall pick in next month's NBA Draft? This is the second of a five-part series looking at why Charlotte should and why it shouldn't take some of the top prospects available:
2012-13 stats: 16.2 points, 7.5 rebounds, and 2.7 assists
Why Porter?
Didn’t the Bobcats draft Michael Kidd-Gilchrist a year ago? That’s probably what you’re wondering reading this as you roll your eyes at the thought of drafting Porter. Surely, the Bobcats don’t draft a small forward again ... right?
Don’t rule out Otto Porter so quickly, though. General manager Rich Cho said after the draft lottery was announced that his motto’s always been: "Draft for talent, trade for need.” If you believe him, Porter’s clearly in play here. Most draft sites have Porter as the third-best player available, and there’s even been chatter that he’s in play with the Cleveland Cavaliers’ top pick.
It would be foolish to think that any position is not one of need on a team that currently does not have a single top-10 NBA player at his respective position. At this point, everything’s in play. And the Pacers are currently showing the value of having multiple athletic, long wing forwards who can defend.
The scariest part of passing on Porter, though, might be what he could become if his improvement moving forward comes anything close to matching his freshman-to-sophomore leap. His points per game jumped by 6.5 per game and his percentage from deep rose from 22 percent to 42 percent as a sophomore. If that jump shot is here to stay, Porter might be too enticing to pass up for Bobcats management.
He already rebounds at an elite level for a wing, a skill set that translates immediately, and has prototypical size at 6-foot-8 with a 7-foot-1 wingspan. The question with Porter: Is he the budding star about to undergo a Paul George-type improvement spike? Or was he just too big and talented at the college level and is now heading for a return to Earth when faced with similar size and athleticism, much like what Evan Turner's gone through?
Regardless, he’s a winner, taking a Georgetown team that likely wasn’t projected as a top-20 club and didn’t have another future NBA player to a 25-7 record and No. 2 seed in the NCAA tournament. That’s got to be enticing for the Bobcats — Michael Kidd-Gilchrist or not.
Why not Porter?
The debate is always talent over need but a lot of times you can address both by drafting players with position flexibility. Porter doesn’t have that. Neither does Kidd-Gilchrist. They’re both strictly small forwards.
If Cho think Porter’s too good to pass up, he almost has to trade Kidd-Gilchrist. Putting yourself in that situation leaves you with no leverage and they’ll never get the value they need for Kidd-Gilchrist until he proves he can hit the 3-point shot.
There’s a lot to love about Kidd-Gilchrist. He’s a competitive, tough defender and great off the bounce for his size, but his jumper has to improve to at least a level of respectability if he’s ever going to become more than a capable role player. The Bobcats have to take the risk that it will develop under their watch and can’t afford to draft Porter if so. There’s also the unspoken issue lurking in the shadows: Andrew Wiggins and Jabari Parker both will likely be available in the draft next year so why reach when either of those two could fall in your lap a year from now.
On a team with gaping holes at shooting guard, power forward and center heading into free agency, why force the issue here with Porter?
Sure, there’s some who argue that Porter may be the most talented player in the draft, but he doesn’t have the driving ability that you see in elite NBA wings. And he’s only 198 pounds, so he’s going to struggle finishing in traffic for a while.
The Bobcats absolutely can’t afford to draft another role player. This pick needs to be a scorer and Porter’s ability to do that at a high level remains a major question mark.
Eastern Conference Scout’s Take
I love all the things Porter does for you on the floor. He gets his hands on everything, has a great feel for the game, rebounds as well as any wing in this class and has really, really improved his stroke. But can he get to the rim? I have heard people make the Paul George comparisons but he’s nowhere near as explosive with his first step or vertically as Paul. My other big concern is he could camouflage that if he could shoot off the bounce, but he’s strictly a spot-up shooter at this point. I just don’t see him being the difference-maker that teams are going to need to spend a top-five pick on him.
2012-13 stats: 16.1 points, 8.1 rebounds.
Why Anthony Bennett?
Whether it comes through free agency or the draft, the Bobcats must address the power forward position. Josh McRoberts and Byron Mullens are both free agents and to be frank, neither are starters in this league. That’s why, to me, Anthony Bennett makes more sense than anyone in this draft for Charlotte outside of McLemore.
So much of the Bobcats’ struggles in recent years come from their complete inability to get a bucket in the halfcourt. They haven’t had anyone they can throw the ball to late in the shot clock who can create his own shot. Bennett can be that type of face-up power forward.
He was a monster at UNLV as a freshman and has an NBA body. To me, he’s the most ready prospect on the board, and that’s what Charlotte needs: someone who can contribute right away. That hasn’t been the case with prospects in Charlotte recently and likely wouldn’t be if they take McLemore, Noel or Porter.
Sure, at only 6-foot-7, his ceiling might not be as high as some of those guys, but as strong and long as he is, his height seems like just an excuse to doubt him — especially in this day and age where Carmelo Anthony and LeBron James have played power forward for long spurts and the face-up four is in vogue. It’s convenient to forget that the kid is only 20 years old, as well.
His best basketball is in front of him and if Charlotte’s looking for the best scoring post player in this class, Bennett would be the prudent choice.
Why not Bennett?
The dicey thing with Bennett is an offseason shoulder surgery won’t allow him to work out for teams before they select him. Will the Bobcats feel comfortable drafting a guy they can only judge off of tape?
Bennett becomes an even trickier potential selection for the Bobcats because the draft is before free agency. If you know you’ve got Paul Millsap or Al Jefferson or another starting, free-agent power forward signed, then you could divert your resources accordingly.
But that’s not the case as they’ll be forced to pick a week before free agency starts this summer. That’s why it’s going to be so hard to pass up on a power forward like Bennett. Landing a big-time free agent is hard enough each offseason; it becomes that much more difficult in a small market like Charlotte. Your free agency status is essentially forced: overpay and get crucified by the pundits and fans or miss out and pray that you’re heading down the Spurs or Thunder path of franchise building.
What makes me nervous about Bennett is completely out of his control. One name: Derrick Williams. Two years ago, I thought Williams was going to be a monster in the NBA. He was undersized height-wise but made up for it with strength, length and athleticism similar to Bennett's. He had an advanced face-up game, but needed to hone his back-to-the-basket game. He didn’t always play hard but posted his best numbers in his biggest games.
That’s almost identical to the description Bennett gets coming out.
At power forward in college, Williams was a match-up nightmare that no one could check. In the NBA, he’s a match-up liability that can’t score inside and isn’t agile or explosive enough off the bounce to be a pure small forward. That could be Bennett if he doesn’t develop more of a back-to-the-basket game.
Eastern Conference Scout’s Take
What stands out to me with Bennett is the main holes in his game are correctable: effort on defense, shot selection and a limited post game. His strength and athleticism are pro ready right now and much of his game is transferable immediately. You just can’t teach how naturally he moves on the floor and how comfortable he is with the ball in his hands for his size.
He’s advanced for his age offensively.
I do worry about his post game, but with that body and footwork he should be fine developing a back-to-the-basket game. I’d have him watch Zach Randolph tapes all summer. I really think he’ll become an even better shooter with more reps as well. He’s got good form for his size.
