The way former Marquette guard Vander Blue sees it, his draft stock may never be better. The way pundits view it, his talent level still might not be good enough for him to be drafted. And that disconnect could lead to an interesting night for Blue at the NBA Draft.
Blue, who declared following his junior season, is among a handful of early entrants into the draft with no guarantees his decision will pay off. At best, mock drafts project Blue to be a mid- or late-second round pick. At worst, he won't hear his name called during the June 27 draft at all.
"I thought about it as making sure I wanted to cash my chips while I was hot," Blue told WAUK radio in Milwaukee last week. "Obviously it's been a life-long dream of mine to play in the NBA and I also think that I'm ready. I think I really put the team on my back this year and really carried us to where we needed to go."
During his first two seasons in the program, Blue served as a complementary piece in Marquette's offense. He averaged 5.1 points as a freshman and 8.4 points as a sophomore. In his junior season, he emerged as the team's standout player. He averaged a team-best 14.8 points to go with 3.2 rebounds and shot 45.4 percent from the field to help the Golden Eagles advance to the Elite Eight.
But Blue also struggled from the 3-point line, hitting 40 of 132 attempts (30.3 percent) and had a negative assists-to-turnovers ratio (62 assists, 79 turnovers). For a player expected to run the point in the NBA, those numbers don't exactly instill confidence in pro personnel.
Given that Blue had another year of college eligibility remaining, some have questioned his decision to leave. CBSSports.com sports writer Jeff Goodman, for example, called it "one of the more baffling, head-scratching decisions of the offseason."
Yet according to Jonathan Givony, an NBA draft analyst who is the owner and founder of DraftExpress.com, Blue has put himself in position to move up draft boards.
Givony said 15 of the top 44 prospects projected to be taken in the NBA Draft returned to school. In other words, Blue goes from a player on the outside looking in to one with a shot at getting drafted.
Among the players returning: Oklahoma State's Marcus Smart, Baylor's Isaiah Austin, Kentucky's Alex Poythress, Michigan's Mitch McGary and Glenn Robinson III, Creighton's Doug McDermott, Michigan State's Adreian Payne and Gary Harris, North Carolina's James Michael McAdoo and Louisville's Russ Smith.
"When you're talking about the NBA Draft, you don't know how good the freshmen are going to be next year," Blue said. "You don't know if the draft is going to be that loaded again next year. I bet nobody thought Marcus Smart was going to stay in school. He made the decision that was right for him. If I would have come out next year, I would have done the same thing. I would have worked hard in the summer and tried to push us a little bit more.
"It wasn't much of being a great draft for me. I think it is now seeing how it all panned out. That really wasn't my motive. It was more about me feeling ready and knowing I can compete at that level and try to help a team get to that championship level somehow."
Givony projects Blue to go 53rd overall in the draft, but several mock drafts do not list Blue at all, including Goodman and NBADraft.net. Blue's stock could still rise because he was added to the prestigious Chicago pre-draft workout list on Friday. The workout takes place May 16-17. There are 63 players participating in the camp.
The early entry list includes 46 players from U.S. colleges and 31 international players, which means at least some will be disappointed. The NBA Draft features only two rounds and 60 picks.
Berggren not on list: Unlike Blue, former Wisconsin center Jared Berggren did not make the invitation list to the Chicago pre-draft workout. Berggren had been working out on the campus of the University of Illinois-Chicago in the lead-up to the June draft.
Berggren averaged 11.0 points and 6.9 rebounds per game during his senior season at Wisconsin and left the program as the all-time blocks leader. He shot 47.1 percent from the field and 25.3 percent on 3-pointers.
Berggren is not projected to be taken during the draft and likely will have to work his way onto a team through the NBA Summer League or by going overseas. Givony elaborated on Berggren's skill set.
"There isn't really one thing about him that distinguishes him as a sure-fire NBA player," Givony said. "He didn't really shoot the 3 that well. He's a good athlete. He's kind of in between the 4 and the 5. He doesn't have the strongest frame in the world. He's not an overly skilled player. He does have some tools. He's a good athlete. He's a good shot blocker. He can make open jump shots once in a while. He plays hard. Wisconsin was phenomenal defensively this year, and he was a big part of that.
"There's no question he's going to play professional basketball somewhere. I don't know if his chances of getting drafted are great. It wouldn't shock me if someone picks him, but I don't necessarily project that at this stage."
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