If reigning juvenile champion Hansen trounces the field Saturday in the Blue Grass Stakes at Keeneland, he likely will be one of the betting favorites when the horses enter the starting gate for the Kentucky Derby on May 5.
But here's an early Derby betting tip: Don't put too much weight on who wins the preps.
Though winning a major prep race — the Florida Derby, Wood Memorial, Santa Anita Derby, Arkansas Derby and Blue Grass Stakes — is often considered a step toward a win at Churchill Downs, the numbers suggest otherwise.
In the past 20 years, only seven percent of the winners of one of those races have gone on to Derby glory and 66 percent finished off the board completely in the Run for the Roses.
The last to win the Kentucky Derby after a major prep race win was Big Brown, winner of the Florida Derby in 2008.
Holy Bull (1994), Unbridled's Song (1996), Harlan's Holiday (2002) and Empire Maker (2003) actually won two of the five major preps heading into the Derby. All four were post-time favorites in the Derby. All four lost.
There's no requirement that horses must run in one of the five major preps, but 17 of the past 20 Derby winners have done so. Two of the past three Derby winners, Animal Kingdom and Mine That Bird, tuned up in other prep races.
So what do these recent trends suggest? One theory is that prep-race winners overexert themselves on the Derby trail. If that holds true, the best bet may be to focus on horses that have shown consistent promise.
Consider the recent finishes of some of the runners in last year's Breeders' Cup Juvenile: Union Rags, who has been favored in most of the early Derby futures betting, finished third in the Florida Derby. Alpha fell a neck short in the Wood Memorial, and Creative Cause lost the Santa Anita Derby by a nose.
