It’s December, and for many of you this is the final week of fantasy football’s regular season. However, let’s wait at least a week before asking our Position vs. Fantasy Defensive Points Allowed to help us evaluate Texans QB T.J. Yates or – gulp – Jake Delhomme. Numbers can only tell us so much, right?
As always, please remember that the players listed are mostly meant to be borderline guys, who need reasons for you to play or bench them. You won’t see recommendations to start Aaron Rodgers and Arian Foster, because you should always start Aaron Rodgers and Arian Foster. Also, any league rankings mentioned reference fantasy ranking, and not real ones, unless otherwise noted.
Note: The fantasy points per game (FPPG) referenced below are from FOXSports.com standard leagues.
Thursday game: Eagles at Seahawks
Quarterbacks
Stay away: Matt Ryan, Falcons (at Texans)
Matty Ice is having a strong season, and has thrown nine touchdown passes over his last four games. However, this week he’ll face a Texans’ defense that ranks second in the league with 12.1 FPPG allowed per game to opposing quarterbacks. Also, with the Texans starting third-string rookie QB T.J. Yates, look for them to run the ball even more than usual in an attempt to control the clock. This looks to be a low-scoring, fantasy-unfriendly matchup.
Also:
• CB Joe Haden and the Browns have been pretty good this season, ranking third with 12.6 FPPG allowed to opposing passers, and permitting a league-low 174.7 passing yards per game. Normally-borderline fantasy starter Joe Flacco of the Ravens isn’t in a good spot here, so your other QB will be a better option in many cases.
• Andy Dalton is here again? Yes, but it really does make sense. The Bengals visit the Steelers, who have allowed just 13.5 FPPG to opposing quarterbacks (fourth in the league). The ginger god rookie has been mostly free of bad fantasy starts, but it’s hard to expect big points from him this week.
Play, play, play: Tim Tebow, Broncos (vs. Vikings)
Every week, my inbox, Twitter feed and Facebook page are filled with “Should I start Tebow or __________?” questions. In most cases I recommend starting the Broncos’ comeback kid, since his running ability gives him strong fantasy value. This week, he might be able to produce through the air as well, as the Vikings’ depleted secondary has their defense at the bottom of the league with 23.7 FPPG allowed to opposing quarterbacks. Tebow might throw for – dare I say it? – 200 yards. Add that to 60 yards on the ground, throw in a touchdown or two, and you’ve got major fantasy goodness.
Also:
• Matt Moore has been surprisingly good lately for the Dolphins, throwing for 901 yards and seven touchdowns against just one interception over his last four games. His matchup Sunday against a below-average Raiders’ defense (ranked 24th with 19.9 FPPG allowed to opposing QBs) is a good one for fantasy owners to target if they need an emergency plug-and-play option.
• Matt Hasselbeck has been struggling lately, and while it’s not easy to recommend him with your fantasy playoff hopes on the line, his matchup against the 28th-ranked Bills (20.7 FPPG to opposing QBs) is attractive if your in a two-QB league.
Running Backs
Stay away: Beanie Wells, Cardinals (vs. Cowboys)
In Weeks 9 through 11, Wells ran for a total of 113 yards on 41 carries, and his nagging knee problems caused head coach Ken Whisenhunt to talk about limiting his workload. Then he gained 228 yards on 27 carries against the Rams, right after your humble fantasy analyst recommended widespread Beanie benchings. Thanks for the misdirection, coach!
Seriously, though Wells looked great in that game, part of that performance has to be pinned on the Rams’ horrible run defense. The Cowboys’ strong, sixth-ranked unit (14.6 FPPG to opposing RBs) figured to give Wells a much harder time. If he’s one of a trio of solid backs on your squad, you should consider making him the odd man out.
Also:
• Peyton Hillis finally returned from his hamstring-related absence in Week 12, gaining 65 yards on 19 carries against the Bengals. On Sunday, he’ll run into a nasty Ravens’ D than has given up a league-low 3.4 yards per carry, and just 13.5 FPPG to opposing running backs. No, thanks.
• Every week in our look at running back committees, we’ve been noting that Ben Tate’s big games have been coming in Texans’ blowouts; otherwise, he’s the clear second banana to Arian Foster.
While the Texans figure to run plenty in an effort to take pressure off their rookie signal caller, it’ll be a tough slog against the Falcons’ second-ranked rushing defense (13.3 FPPG to opposing RBs). Tate is usually a consideration at RB3 or flex for fantasy owners, but he’s unlikely to help you in this spot.
• Steven Jackson, meet the top-ranked 49ers’ rushing defense (75.5 ypg, 10.1 FPPG to opposing RBs). You’re almost too good to bench. Almost … unless your owners have two strong alternatives.
Play, play, play: LeGarrette Blount, Bucs (vs. Panthers)
Blount has strung together his first set of back-to-back 100-yard games over the last two weeks. The Panthers’ run defense (26.7 FPPG to opposing RBs) has been atrocious, allowing a back to gain 80 yards in all but one game, giving up five 100-yard outings, and letting in a league-high 15 touchdowns on the ground. This is Fantasy Matchups 101 – start Blount if you have him.
Also:
• After struggling for a few weeks due to a toe injury, BenJarvus Green-Ellis has rebounded lately, carrying 34 times for 125 yards and two touchdowns in his last two games. Look for him to have a strong day against the Colts’ 30th-ranked run defense (24.4 FPPG to opposing RBs), at least until he gets replaced when the Patriots have a 97-point lead in the second half.
• DeAngelo Williams has made himself fantasy-relevant again, running 25 times for 142 yards and two scores in his last two games. His matchup against the Bucs’ 31st-ranked run defense (24.5 FPPG to opposing RBs) makes him worthy of consideration as a fantasy start, which hasn’t been the case for much of the season. If I were an NFL running back, I’d pay to run in this Panthers-Bucs matchup. These teams can’t stop anyone.
• Reggie Bush has been better than expected this season, with more than 800 yards from scrimmage and five touchdowns through 11 games. Over his last four outings, he’s been averaging 14.5 carries and has scored four of those touchdowns. His matchup against the 26th-ranked Raiders’ defense (21.1 FPPG) is a good one, as only one other team has given up more than their 49 receiving yards per game to opposing backs. That’s made to order for a dual threat like Bush.
Wide Receivers
Stay away: Anquan Boldin, Ravens (vs. Browns)
See Flacco, Joe. Shutdown corner Joe Haden and the Browns have been the league’s stingiest defense against opposing wideouts, giving up just 12.8 FPPG. Boldin has been pretty good overall this season, but his inconsistency and this difficult matchup make him a shaky option.
Also:
• Santana Moss caught four passes for 29 yards in his return from a four-week injury absence. This week, he gets an all-expense paid trip to Revis Island, and even though Buffalo’s Stevie Johnson had a successful stay there in Week 12 – aside from his infamous celebration penalty, anyway – the Jets have given up just 17.1 FPPG to opposing wide receivers. If you’ve been tempted to get Moss back into your lineup, wait one more week.
• On the other side of the ball in D.C., Santonio Holmes will face a Redskins’ defense that ranks sixth – one spot behind the Jets – with 17.4 FPPG allowed to opposing wide receivers. Holmes is a really good player, but he can’t throw the ball to himself, and that’s why he has stretches like the current one in which he’s surpassed 39 yards receiving only once in five games. You can find a more reliable option.
Play, play, play: Doug Baldwin, Seahawks (vs. Eagles)
With Sidney Rice going on season-ending injured reserve this week, Baldwin is now WR1 one for the Seahawks. That doesn’t make him elite, but it does make him an interesting option tonight, when the Eagles and their 26th-ranked defense (23.5 FPPG to opposing WRs) come to town. Baldwin has a decent 17 receptions for 274 yards over his last five games, and should be in line for an uptick in production.
Also:
• Tim Tebow doesn’t throw a lot, but when he does, Eric Decker is his favorite target. Decker has managed to score a touchdown in four of Tebow’s five starts, and gets to face the soft Minnesota pass defense (24.9 FPPG to opposing WRs) on Sunday. Try to start Decker if you have him.
• San Francisco’s Michael Crabtree is better in points-per-reception leagues than standard formats, as he has 33 receptions for 377 yards over his last six games. Against the subpar Rams’ defense (23.8 FPPG allowed to opposing WRs) he figures to have another solid outing.
Tight Ends
Stay away: Vernon Davis, 49ers (vs. Rams)
For all the Rams’ difficulties against the pass, they’ve allowed a league-low 3.3 FPPG to opposing tight ends. Here’s what some of the league’s best have done against them:
Jimmy Graham, Saints: Four receptions, 39 yards
Jason Witten, Cowboys: Five receptions, 35 yards, TD
Jermichael Finley, Packers: One reception, 20 yards
Fred Davis, Redskins: Four receptions, 34 yards
Not bad, right? Davis usually catches three or four passes per game, putting him a step below the league’s elite. In that position, he’s often a matchup decision, and this isn’t a good one for him.
Also:
• Like most tight ends, Pittsburgh’s Heath Miller is a hit-or-miss option for fantasy owners. You never know when these guys are going to produce, but with a battle coming against the Bengals, who rank fifth against opposing tight ends (5.8 FPPG), let’s chalk Miller up as a probable miss.
Play, play, play: Scott Chandler, Bills (vs. Titans)
After injuries to star running back Fred Jackson and a couple of wide receivers, Chandler has filled some of the production void for the Bills. He’s been targeted 13 times over the last two games, catching 11 passes for 121 yards. On Sunday, he’ll face a Titans’ defense that ranks 30th with 9.4 FPPG allowed to opposing tight ends. Chandler is owned in just 17.1 percent of FOXSports.com leagues, so if you’re scanning the wires for help at this position, he’s a nice, under-the-radar option.
Also:
• If Monday’s loss to the Saints was any indication, the Giants might be down 35-0 at halftime to the Packers. Mario Manningham (knee) appears on his way to missing another game, and Eli Manning won’t be able to throw all his garbage-time passes to Hakeem Nicks and Victor Cruz. Jake Ballard, who’s having a solid season with 30 receptions for 390 yards and three touchdowns, will try to find seams in a Pack D that ranks 27th against opposing tight ends (9.2 FPPG).
Fantasy Football News and Notes | Week 13 Fantasy Football Starts and Sits
