The Packers and Vikings renew their long rivalry with the first of two games in the 2013 season, with the initial one being played in Minnesota on prime time television.
Can you throw the records out when these teams meet? We asked our beat writers – FOX Sports North's Brian Hall and FOX Sports Wisconsin's Paul Imig – a few questions as we sort out just what might happen Sunday.
1. Did Greg Jennings make a mistake leaving Green Bay for Minnesota?
IMIG: No. This is what Jennings wanted. Well, not necessarily the 1-5 record, but he wanted a chance to exist away from the all-time-great quarterbacks that he played with in Green Bay. He wanted to prove that he wasn't just a product of having the ball thrown to him by Brett Favre for two seasons and by Aaron Rodgers for five seasons. He wanted to show that he was a star receiver, regardless of what offensive system was being run.
Jennings couldn't return to the Packers. It just wasn't going to happen. He wanted a huge contract extension in the range of what Calvin Johnson is worth. And while he still didn't get that type of money from the Vikings, the pride factor was enough that, even if the finances were relatively equal, Jennings was going to pick Team X (which could have been any other NFL team that showed interest) over a return to Green Bay.
Jennings has discovered in only six games how complicated life as a receiver is when the team is switching off between three quarterbacks. Christian Ponder, then Matt Cassel, then Josh Freeman and now back to Ponder. A week after this Packers / Vikings game, Jennings will likely have to adjust back to Freeman (who's currently dealing with concussion symptoms).
Jennings said in his conference call this week that he's embraced his situation in Minnesota and that he doesn't wish Rodgers would still be his quarterback. Jennings said his leaving Green Bay means he doesn't have to worry about potentially overshadowing Randall Cobb for any longer. Whatever rationale Jennings wants to come up with, whether his words were completely true or a mix of fact and fiction, he had to find a team to play for that wasn't the Packers. It was the natural next step for his career after the way things had developed.
HALL: Hindsight being 20-20, it appears right now as if Jennings might have made a mistake. Of course, he's well compensated for his choice. Jennings will be dealing with his third quarterback in four games Sunday night against Green Bay. He had three starting quarterbacks his entire time with the Packers. Also, Green Bay is dealing with injuries to Randall Cobb and James Jones, which likely means Jennings would be highly involved in the passing game.
But, in this case, I don't think Jennings needs to second-guess himself. He was given a big contract by the Vikings and has the chance to be the team's no-doubt No. 1 receiver -- even if Jerome Simpson is leading Minnesota in catches so far. In Green Bay, at this point in his career, Jennings was just another piece. The Packers had three top-flight receivers in Cobb, Jones and Jordy Nelson. It's quite possible Jennings only would have been the fourth receiver for Green Bay. Instead, he has a chance to be a starting receiver. He did what he needed to do in his departure from the Packers and Green Bay did what it needed to do by not paying highly for another receiver.
2. Last year, you both said the rivalry between the Packers and Vikings wasn't as intense as it once was and there really wasn't animosity. Did Jennings' comments in the offseason stoke that fire?
IMIG: When Jennings described the Packers' organization as "cookie-cutter" and said that the difference in Minnesota is that "no one's walking on eggshells," I thought this rivalry was back. Add in all of Jennings' negative comments about Rodgers, then I became more convinced that Packers - Vikings was going to be among the most must-see matchups this season. On the field, Green Bay and Minnesota concluded 2012 by playing back-to-back games, first in Week 17 of the regular season (Minnesota wins) and then in the wild-card round of the playoffs (Green Bay wins). All of these factors should add up to the makings of this becoming a significant rivalry in 2013.
... But it's still not. The Vikings just aren't good enough for it to be that type of rivalry. With the regular season not quite half over, Minnesota is really the only team in the NFC North that isn't a realistic contender for the division title. Two teams with such different outlooks can't be major rivals, no matter how much Jennings' comments spiced things up a bit.
It also doesn't help the "animosity" factor when Rodgers says how much he respects Jared Allen and Chad Greenway. It doesn't add animosity when Green Bay's defensive linemen sing the praises of Adrian Peterson being the unquestioned best running back in the NFL. Despite the Jennings factor, there's still a lot of mutual respect between these two teams, and the talent gap on the field is too great right now for the “rivalry” of it to feel like anything more than Jennings vs. the Packers, Part 1.
HALL: The comments this summer might have fanned the flames a little bit, but they've died out again this week in advance of the game. The Packers avoided getting into a verbal exchange this week and Jennings simmered down his approach by saying he wish he could take back the things he said about Green Bay and quarterback Aaron Rodgers this summer.
I'm sure there will be a little bit more energy on Sunday night from Jennings and the Packers. But this rivalry isn't what it once was, and definitely doesn't match the intensity of when Brett Favre was quarterback for Minnesota. There might be a little more animosity, because of Jennings, than there was the past couple seasons, but nothing like in the rivalry's hey-day. Perhaps lessening the intensity is the play of the two teams, as well, with Green Bay taking control of the NFC North and the Vikings in the midst of a downward spiral.
3. This might be strange to ask, but which running back will have the bigger day? Adrian Peterson vs. the Packers, who are allowing just 3.4 yards/rush and 79 rush yards/game, or Eddie Lacy (301 yards in last 3 weeks) vs. the Vikings?
IMIG: I can't believe I'm writing this, but I think Eddie Lacy will outrush Adrian Peterson in this game. Lacy's 301 rushing yards over the past three games is the best in the NFL in that span. In the past two games, Peterson has only 90 rushing yards.
While the Vikings have apparently forgotten that Peterson is their running back by only giving him the ball 23 times in the past two games, the Packers have trusted Lacy to carry it at least 22 times per game throughout all of October so far. Lacy will play an even bigger role in the offense now that Green Bay is short on pass-catchers, with Randall Cobb and Jermichael Finley both certainly out, and James Jones also unlikely to play.
Minnesota's run defense is fairly good (ranked 14th in rushing yards allowed per game and ranked seventh in yards per attempt), but the Packers' run defense is even better (ranked third overall in the NFL in both categories).
HALL: Who would have thought this would be a topic last December? But, it's a legitimate question at this point. Minnesota's running game has struggled and, inexplicably, the coaching staff has made Adrian Peterson secondary in the offense. The Vikings have thrown the ball more than the Packers so far this season.
Peterson has been part of an offense that has run the ball just 27 times the past two games and now ranks 19th in the league in rushing. Meanwhile, Green Bay is third in rushing defense and sixth in rushing offense. Lacy has provided a new element to the Packers' offense, but Green Bay also got 100-yard rushing days from Johnathan Franklin and James Starks. Since Lacy returned from a concussion, he's been one of the best backs in the league.
But for the sake of answering the question, I'll still have to take Peterson this time around. Minnesota, and Peterson specifically, has talked about being more physical and establish the run. It will be an emphasis on Sunday night. The Packers held Peterson to 99 yards in the playoff game last year, but before that he ran for 199 yards and 210 yards in the regular-season meetings. And knowing Green Bay and quarterback Aaron Rodgers, they won't be able to resist passing the ball against Minnesota's 29th ranked pass defense.
4. What needs to happen for the team you cover to win?
IMIG: Green Bay needs to not allow explosive runs from Peterson. Ponder isn't capable of winning this game for the Vikings through the air, but Peterson can definitely change everything with a few big runs.
Also, Rodgers needs to avoid interceptions (which he usually does well) and the entire Packers team needs to not turn the ball over. The easiest way for a lesser team like Minnesota to upset a better team like Green Bay is through turnovers.
As long as the Packers protect the ball and don't let Peterson break free too often, it shouldn't matter that Green Bay has so many key players injured.
HALL: Aside from another 200 yards from Peterson? Peterson will need to control the game and the Vikings' defense (which ranks 14th against the run) will have to slow Lacy and take advantage of any opportunities Rodgers might give them. Turnovers will be key because Minnesota's defense won't be able to stop Rodgers the entire game.
The Vikings will need Peterson to have his biggest game of the season and, ultimately, Minnesota's success falls back on the starting quarterback, in this case Christian Ponder. Ponder's last game against Green Bay was the best single-game of his career with a passer rating of 120.2, when he threw for 234 yards and three touchdowns in a win at the Metrodome last season. Of course, Ponder didn't build off the success and was ultimately benched this year. He's back in the saddle because of Josh Freeman's concussion and he will need to have another game like he had against the Packers in Minnesota last season. If Peterson does his part, Ponder will need to be efficient, make the occasional big play and not turn the ball over.
5. Predicted score
IMIG: Packers 24, Vikings 13
HALL: None of the signs are pointing in the Vikings' way and I can't offer much optimism. Green Bay wins 34-20.
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