If there's such a thing as a slim 2-0 lead in the NBA playoffs, that's exactly what the Oklahoma City Thunder have over the Dallas Mavericks. The Thunder have to feel extremely fortunate, if not outright lucky, to have won both games in their home arena.
If the Mavs can win the next two games at American Airlines Center, they have to feel pretty confident they can break through in Oklahoma City. The biggest problem for Dallas is that Kevin Durant hasn't had a good game yet, by his standards. The friendliest of bounces on his Game 1 buzzer-beater is the only reason the Thunder hold a 2-0 advantage in this series.
A lot has been made of the Mavs' fourth-quarter struggles in this series, but Oklahoma City received 24 points from the unlikely duo of Kendrick Perkins and Derek Fisher in Game 2. That contributed to the Mavs ending up in a 16-point hole in the second quarter. If they manage to slow down Durant, the Mavs can't let the Thunder's bench be productive at various points in the game.
OKC guard James Harden is the best sixth man in the NBA. He can break you down off the dribble or nail a 3-pointer. It's no shock that he lit it up in Game 1 (with 19 points and six boards), but Dallas can't afford to allow players such as Perkins and Serge Ibaka to go on scoring sprees.
The Mavs are being undermined by poor play at the center position. The bright lights of the playoffs have been too much for the extremely athletic Brandan Wright, and Carlisle didn't start Brendan Haywood in the second half of Game 2. Ian Mahinmi has been the most active of the Mavs' three-headed center position, although he didn't play with a lot of edge in Game 1.
But the NBA's newly named Defensive Player of the Year, Tyson Chandler, isn't walking through that door, since he joined the Knicks in the offseason. As we saw in last year's Western Conference Finals, he was perfectly suited for this matchup.
For now, Carlisle will have to hope at least one of his centers will bring a lot of energy to the floor for Thursday’s Game 3. But he's vowed not to make a change to the starting lineup.
"He's started every game all year that he's been available," Carlisle said of Haywood. "We're not going to change that now. The second half the other night, it's an outlier situation. It was a gut feel and I went with it, but tomorrow night, Wood's going to be our guy again."
Of course, it's hard to forget Carlisle inserting guard J.J. Barea into the starting lineup against the Miami Heat in last year's Finals. This is no time to worry about a player's feelings, and that's why Carlisle won't hesitate to give Haywood the hook in Game 3. It's likely that Wright, who should be well-suited for this series, has seen his last action for a while. This level of competition seems a bit rich for him at the moment.
Carlisle has done his best to make life easier on Dirk Nowitzki. The coach twice has registered complaints through the media regarding how the Mavs star is being defended. The early part of Game 3 should tell how the contest is going to be called.
If Perkins is allowed to basically mug Nowitzki, the Mavs could be in for a long evening. But if the game's called tightly, there's no way in the world Perkins should be able to defend the reigning Finals MVP. This should be a mismatch of epic proportions. Plus, the officials will likely be on high alert after the skirmish between the two players in Game 2.
The Mavs coach certainly didn't avoid the topic Tuesday during his media session.
"There are things that are happening out there that can't happen," Carlisle said. "You can't hit a guy in the face when you shoot the jump shot. Intentional or not intentional, that happened and that's one of the things that sort of set things in motion there.
“Look, it's playoff basketball and there's going to be chippiness and there's going to be contact and there's going to be hits, and we've just got to make sure our disposition is where it needs to be on the one hand. On the other hand, our poise and composure has to be very strong."
Mavs sixth man Jason Terry once again said on Wednesday that he planned to treat Game 3 like a Game 7. Following the opener, Terry vowed the Thunder wouldn't be able to keep him from getting shots in the fourth quarter, again.
He was able to squeeze off seven shots, but two of them were desperation 3-point attempts in the closing seconds. Thunder point guard Russell Westbrook has the athleticism to deny Terry the ball down the stretch and still have something left in his tank on the offensive end.
Westbrook has been sensational on both ends of the floor in the series so far, but the Mavs have actually done a decent job of keeping him out of the lane. He's hurt Dallas with a lot of mid-range jumpers, which Carlisle will continue to live with. If the coach moves defensive stopper Shawn Marion over to cover Westbrook, that could open things up for Durant.
The Mavs can't afford to think about winning four out of five games. They truly need to treat Game 3 like it's all-or-nothing, in part because that's pretty much the case. How many times has a team overcome a 3-0 deficit to win a seven-game series? Zilch is the correct answer.
"We're looking forward to a great home crowd," Nowitzki said. "We've had two days off to get some rest and look at some stuff and get better today. Hopefully, we'll play our best game yet and execute a little better down the stretch and squeeze one out and put some pressure on them and make it a series."
This is not a particularly good Mavs team, as evidenced by their 36-30 record and No. 7 seed. But it's certainly a proud team with a few holdovers from last year's title bunch.
There's no sense the Mavs could get on one of those incredible runs again in the postseason, but they could definitely climb back in this series.
That climb begins Thursday evening against perhaps the most talented team in the NBA.
