Unlike most connoisseurs of the racing game, I thought Saturday's 136th Kentucky Derby was a two-horse race between Lookin at Lucky and Sidney's Candy, with the rest of them gasping for air.
Now, everything has changed. Lucky has drawn the dreaded rail, the kiss of death in the modern derby, and the Candy man has drawn the extreme outside 20 post position, seemingly reducing the greatest of all America's thoroughbred races to a rumble in the park.
Lookin at Lucky risks being smothered and slaughtered in the run to the clubhouse turn, while Sidney's Candy, with five break-neck speed horses inside of him, risks being floated six wide on the same turn, if not speared to the outside rail.
The injustice of it all is palpable. Here are two terrific three-year-old colts, bred, bought, nurtured and trained to the minute at great emotional and financial cost, led to the starting gate in peak form for the greatest assignment of their lives, only to be compromised, if not crushed, by the rotten luck of the draw.
That, at least, is the conventional wisdom. The reality, however, is that good horses overcome adversity and find a way to establish their superiority. Seattle Slew, from gate 4, was virtually eliminated in the 1977 Derby at the break, but bulled his way through traffic, ran up to chase the speed, then streaked off through the stretch.
Lookin at Lucky has the same opportunity to prove himself tomorrow — if he's good enough. Sidney's Candy may have the harder task. He either will have to be hard used to get the lead or taken out of his game and tucked in behind.
And that's only the beginning of the nightmare of trying to handicap this Derby. Five contenders — Sidney's Candy, Stately Victor, Dean's Kitten, Paddy O'Prado and Make Music for Me — are all switching from synthetic surfaces to dirt with no clear hint of how they will handle it. Good luck there.
But no one is going to be more confused than the Beyer speed boys. No fewer than seven horses — Devil May Care, Sidney's Candy, Ice Box, Line of David, American Lion, Dublin and Super Saver — are all bunched together with almost identical figs. They are separated only by three points, from a Beyer 100 to a Beyer 97. Take your pick and good luck again.
I cling to the notion that Lookin at Lucky, in the absence of Eskendereya, is the best — and unluckiest — colt in the land. He drew the extreme outside post in the Breeders' Cup Juvenile, only to be beaten a head. He clipped heels in the Rebel, but still won, then was hampered by an atrocious ride in the Santa Anita Derby.
Now he has the jinxed rail tomorrow. He can still win, but at 3-1 the risk looks greater than the reward. Sidney's Candy doesn't offer any more value at 5-1.
The filly Devil May Care is the spice in the pie but D. Wayne Lukas, the Derby specialist, is wary.
"She has never raced against males, so she's going into uncharted waters," he warned.
If he holds at 15-1, Todd Pletcher's Super Saver, with Calvin Borel up, is a possible upsetter. He is perfectly drawn in Gate 4, where he can track the speed along the rail, then break clear in the stretch.
Super Saver greatly impressed the nation's racing secretaries last year when they gave him 122 pounds on the Experimental Handicap, just four pounds below Lookin at Lucky.
He has one of the highest Beyer speed figs (98), he's bred to get the trip and he has been working beautifully over the Churchill strip. The Daily Racing Form's astute clocker, Mike Welsch, clocked him in a half-mile breeze and said, "Super Saver continues to impress ... and certainly gives the appearance he's sitting on a huge effort."
If the speed horses collapse, as many expect, the likely beneficiary may be Nick Zito's late running Ice Box, who upset the Florida Derby at 20-1.
Now, if the rains come, as forecast, the Derby may take another twist. Super Saver, Devil May Care, Discreetly Mine and Backtalk are the only starters to have won on wet tracks.
