In a top-heavy ACC, it is hard to envision any of the teams competing on Day One of the ACC Tournament having a good chance of capturing the conference title, but there are some intriguing matchups to take a look at..
Miami needs to hit its stride again now that big man Reggie Johnson has been reinstated by the NCAA, while if Maryland can get out to a big win against Wake Forest it could ride that momentum to a potential upset against top-seeded North Carolina in the second round.
And can Clemson continue its relatively strong close to the ACC schedule with a win over Virginia Tech? One thing is for sure: No team wants to be the one to lose to Boston College this week.
8 Maryland vs. 9 Wake Forest (Thursday, noon)
Layup Line: In the first meeting, Maryland grabbed 21 offensive rebounds to take down the Demon Deacons in the two teams' conference opener. However, Travis McKie created matchup problems for the Terrapins as he led all scorers with 25 points and Wake Forest shot for an effective field goal percentage of 49.1. The Terrapins will be without defensive specialist Pe'Shon Howard this time around, but the emergence of 7-footer Alex Len could help them reassert their dominance in the paint. Also of note: Maryland shot 24 more free throws in the first meeting. If that seems like a lot, that's because it is. The Terps led the conference in free throw rate for a reason.
Scoop Shot: This could turn into a fun back-and-forth between ACC volume scorers in Maryland guard Terrell Stoglin and McKie. Stoglin finished as the ACC's regular season scoring champion at 21.2 points per game, while McKie finished at No. 6 at 15.9 per game (although shooting at a more efficient clip). The two will not guard each other due to size differences, but this could be a fun one to tune into if one or both players get hot. These two teams are still a combined 4-24 against teams in the RPI top-100 despite their prolific scorers, but luckily for both teams neither one ranks in that top-100. Let's just hope for points.
Sideline Story: This is the first ACC Tournament for Maryland coach Mark Turgeon, who led the Terrapins to a 6-9 conference record after coming over from Texas A&M. Wake Forest coach Jeff Bzdelik's enters his second postseason rodeo, improving his team's seed from 12th to 9th in Year Two. Turgeon has coached a team to the NCAA tournament in five of his last six seasons (once at Wichita State, four times at Texas A&M), but will likely need to pull off a miracle run to a conference title to continue that streak.
At The Buzzer: Maryland will be too much for Wake Forest on the boards, and Terrell Stoglin and Nick Faust should be tough to handle on the perimeter. The Terrapins sweep the season series with a 65-56 win.
5 N.C. State vs. 12 Boston College (Thursday, 2 p.m.)
Layup Line: The Wolfpack swept the season series but it played out closer than most expected, with Boston College keeping it close in a 56-51 loss at home. The Eagles improved across the board in the second meeting and, with a better shooting night from forward Ryan Anderson or guard Matt Humphrey, could have been looking at the upset. If the Eagles are going to find a way to take down the NCAA hopeful Wolfpack, they will have to find a way to get to the free throw line more. Boston College had a combined free throw rate of 18 percent in the first two games. That's awful, to say the least. N.C. State was not much better (24.8 percent), but you are able to get away with that when you have more talent and experience on the roster.
Scoop Shot: How fast can the Eagles grow up? Five of Boston College's top six scorers are freshmen this season, which has mightily contributed to its struggles but could point to a promising future for coach Steve Donahue. But a brighter tomorrow does not always spell out a sunny today. The Eagles are running into a more seasoned team fighting for its NCAA life. N.C. State boasts plenty of talent with sophomore guard Lorenzo Brown and the C.J. duo — ultra-talented C.J. Leslie and efficient guard C.J. Williams — and should be fun to watch on Thursday afternoon. Leslie might even jump over 5-foot-9 guard Jordan Daniels.
Sideline Story: The ACC Coach of the Year talks for Mark Gottfried gained momentum for a while until the team's 20-point collapse at Duke and subsequent four-game losing skid. But N.C. State, along with Miami and (some argue) Virginia, finds itself on the Big Dance bubble and a win here could help gain momentum heading into a pivotal matchup against the Cavaliers in Round 2. This has been a rebuilding year for Donahue, who will take what he can this postseason before hopefully returning with a lot more experience next fall.
At The Buzzer: With a desperate, more talented team that ended the season on the right note, this should be a rout for the Wolfpack. Boston College's shooters have the ability to get hot (7th nationally in team effective field goal percentage), but getting stops remains a problem. C.J. Leslie reaches the 20-point mark for the fourth time in his last six games and Gottfried's squad cruises 75-59.
7 Clemson vs. 10 Virginia Tech (Thursday, 7 p.m.)
Layup Line: Don't turn this game off in the closing minutes. The Tigers and Hokies have met twice this season and have a point differential of zero — Virginia Tech won the first meeting 67-65 while Clemson won their second encounter 58-56. Interestingly enough, both teams won in similar fashion: Squandering late leads before rallying to close out the game. Whether that is a sign of heart or lack of a killer instinct, that seven-point lead with two minutes to go certainly will not feel safe for either team.
Scoop Shot: Clemson has wavered offensively at times, struggling to find a go-to scorer against top competition, but has been one of the conference's better defenses (43rd-best defensive efficiency in the country). Virginia Tech scores at a slightly more efficient clip, but still plays at the grinding pace that fits both teams. This projects to be a halfcourt game with possessions coming at a premium — watch to see if strong offensive rebounders Catalin Baciu (Clemson) and Cadarin Raines (Virginia Tech) can make an impact on the offensive glass.
Sideline Story: The good news for Seth Greenburg is that the annual bubble chatter surrounding his Hokies has dissipated this March. The bad news is that Virginia Tech might not even make the NIT. Greenburg has done a respectable job year after year in Blacksburg, but his young team could not seem to get over the hump this time. On the other hand, Clemson coach Brad Brownell has taken a small step backward in his second campaign, but I still remain a believer. Last season, he pushed a superior North Carolina squad to the brink in the ACC Tournament semifinals, then turned around and won an NCAA game before barely being ousted by West Virginia on short rest. Don't sleep on Brownell's guys.
At The Buzzer: This is an experienced Clemson team under a good coach and I expect that will outweigh all else on a neutral floor. Both teams will struggle to score the ball, but if the Tigers replicate their regular season defensive efforts they will survive and advance. Keep an eye out for twice-suspended Clemson forward Milton Jennings to make a difference, as his rebounding ability on both ends of the floor (he's grabbed 12 offensive boards in the last four games alone) could turn the tide in this one. Clemson wins 64-59.
6 Miami vs. 11 Georgia Tech (Thursday, 9 p.m.)
Layup Line: This should feel familiar. These two programs already met in Phillips Arena once this season, a 64-49 Miami win on Jan. 24. However, the Yellow Jackets had a better showing than the final score suggests. — winning the battle on the offensive boards, avoiding turnovers and getting to the free throw line at a higher rate than the Hurricanes. However, Miami simply shot them out of the gym (effective field goal percentage margin of +17.2 percent). So without Glen Rice Jr., this time around, how will Brian Gregory's squad generate those red lights on the scoreboard to move?
Scoop Shot: Reggie Johnson's reinstatement by the NCAA should help on a variety of levels, but perhaps none more importantly than demanding opponents' attention in the paint and clearing space for perimeter scorers Malcolm Grant and Durand Scott. Perhaps no one is happier to see Johnson back than Grant, the team's third-leading scorer, who suffered through a cold shooting streak through most of ACC play, including seven-game stretch where he shot just 13-for-55 and did not reach double-digits once. With Miami's space-eating center back in the lineup, Grant has snapped that streak with 14- and 12-point outings, respectively. Watch to see if Grant and Scott continue to thrive on the perimeter against a depleted Yellow Jackets' team.
Sideline Story: Jim Larranaga is the bigger, more accomplished name having spent his time at mid-major Cinderella story George Mason for the past 14 seasons. Larranaga, of course, famously led the Patriots to the 2006 Final Four and reached the Big Dance four times in his tenure there. Gregory was no slouch at the mid-major level either, with two NCAA appearances at Dayton on his résumé. For a conference tournament that features seven coaches who have been hired within the last two seasons, this is the most intriguing coaching matchup of Day One. The difference: Larranaga inherited a bit more talent.
At The Buzzer: With both teams at full strength, this would have been a trendy upset pick. But the loss of Glen Rice Jr., really hurts the hometown Yellow Jackets' cause and it is difficult to envision them shutting down all of Miami's pieces. Alas, no upset picks for Thursday. Miami wins 71-60 as the ACC Tournament goes chalk in the opening round.
