The ACC is at the midpoint of the conference schedule and the surprises so far have been more on the negative side, with teams such as Virginia Tech and Clemson not having performed as well as expected.
Florida State and Miami have surged since league play began, but they're pretty much what many observers envisioned before the season started.
As a whole, the ACC looks like a lock to get four teams into the NCAA tournament with six having a realistic chance. However, plenty of work must be done before that’s accomplished.
Here's a quick look at how each ACC team stacks up moving forward, in relation to their Ratings Percentage Index (RPI).
RPI No. 3 Duke (19-4, 6-2 ACC) – The Blue Devils are 10-4 against teams ranked among the top 100 of the RPI. They are 5-4 vs. the top 50, including 4-3 against the top 25.
Duke still has a shot at a No. 1 seed, but achieving that begins with a victory at UNC on Wednesday night. Otherwise, the Blue Devils will likely get a No. 2 or 3 seed instead. But that’s not a given, especially with recent issues regarding focus, effort and cohesion.
No. 7 North Carolina (20-3, 7-1) – The Tar Heels are 8-3 against the top 100, but just 1-3 vs. the top 25. Those losses came on the road, and two were more than two months ago.
The Tar Heels will end up with a No.1 seed somewhere, perhaps in the West region, if they keep improving with each game. But most important is learning to play with a necessary ferocity 40 minutes a night. If they do, they are the best team in the nation.
No. 17 Florida State (16-6, 7-1) – Leonard Hamilton’s club is 7-4 vs. the top 100 and 2-3 against the top 25. But FSU has won seven consecutive ACC games, and three of its losses were either by two points or went into overtime.
FSU has the inside track to the regular season title because of its schedule, but it may also mean they have to win out to do so. Can the Seminoles score enough points to go 15-1 in the ACC? We’ll find out.
No. 38 Miami (14-7, 5-3) – The Hurricanes have some work to do, as they're only 3-7 vs. the top 100, but do have a win at Duke that can be built on. The ’Canes have also won four consecutive ACC games.
They finally notched a victory that will separate it from other teams vying for at-large bids to the NCAA tournament, but the Hurricanes have to get to at least 10 ACC wins to have a chance.
No. 42 Virginia (18-4, 5-3) – Virginia’s curiously low RPI has a lot to do with the fact that six of the Cavaliers' victories have come over teams currently rated No. 282 or lower in the RPI. The Wahoos are 6-3 vs. the top 100 and have two top-50 wins, including one over No. 16 Michigan.
This is one team that may be affected less by its RPI than most other clubs because it welcomed playing on the road and overall has been competitive. The four losses have come by a total of 10 points, so don’t count them out of the ACC race just yet.
No. 57 N.C. State (17-7, 6-3) – Thanks to Miami’s win at Duke over the weekend, which catapulted the ’Canes into the No. 38 spot, the Wolfpack now has a win over a top 50 club. State is 4-6 vs. the top 100, but a disappointing 1-5 against the top 50.
N.C. State passes the eye test when it comes to being an obvious NCAA tournament team, but the Pack must get some quality wins on paper to impress the committee. With FSU, UNC and Duke coming up soon, they'll definitely have that chance.
No. 92 Virginia Tech (13-10, 2-6) – The Hokies have almost zero chance of getting into the NCAA tournament without winning the ACC tourney first. They are just 2-8 vs. the top 100 of the RPI and 1-7 against the top 50.
This team can certainly play the role of spoiler. They're capable of beating the top teams in this league, but are more likely to fall on their faces in those games. Is Seth Greenberg coaching for his job at this point?
No. 98 Maryland (13-9, 3-5) – Mark Turgeon’s troops are 3-9 against the top 100 and stand virtually no chance of getting into the NCAAs. If Notre Dame and Colorado can close strong, that will bolster Maryland’s numbers, but it won’t be enough. The Terps are 0-7 against the top 50.
The Terrapins need to keep plugging away learning Turgeon’s system. If everyone comes back next season, they could be really good, so closing strong and getting some home games in the NIT would be a nice bridge to next season.
No. 137 Wake Forest (11-12, 2-7) – The Deacons are 2-8 against the top 100 and 0-7 vs. the top 75. Wake’s two top-100 wins are over teams rated No. 91 and 92, and it’s possible Loyola (Md.) and Virginia Tech won’t remain in the top 100 much longer.
Picking up a quality win or two and beating similar teams could get Wake into the NIT, which it needs to keep getting used to second-year coach Jeff Bzdelik’s system. The odds are slim Wake will achieve that, however.
No. 150 Georgia Tech (9-14, 2-7) – At 2-11 vs. the top 100, including 0-8 against the top 50, the Yellow Jackets have been in "next-year mode" for a while now.
Brian Gregory probably can’t wait to get through this season, because Tech opens a new arena in time for the 2012-13 campaign. Keeping his team focused over the next month is crucial in building toward next season.
No. 164 Clemson (11-11, 3-5) – Brad Brownell’s team is 1-5 vs. the top 100, but what is quite disturbing is that the Tigers have six losses to teams outside the top 100.
It’s important that senior guards Tanner Smith and Andre Young close their careers on a strong note. They’ve been to three NCAA tournaments, but they aren’t going this season. It’s also important the young Tigers get as much playing time as possible to build for the future.
No. 238 Boston College (7-16, 2-7) – BC is 1-9 against the top 100 and has seven losses to teams outside the top 100.
Steve Donahue has the youngest team in ACC history, so every game is an opportunity to improve for next year and beyond. That’s the only way this team can view the rest of the year.
