ACC ends Final Four drought, looks to build on NCAA Tournament success
The ACC was a bit of a top-heavy league for much of the season. And yet the top of the league acquitted itself quite well in the NCAA Tournament, earning a league-record 15 wins (and counting).
Still, moments before tipoff of the final Elite 8 game on Sunday, Duke was the last hope for the ACC to end its five-year Final Four drought -- the longest since 1958-61. If Duke hadn't prevailed over Gonzaga, the league would have had its new longest drought ever. And it would have come in spite of the league expanding to include the best of the Big East.
Five of the six schools to make the Tournament advanced to the Sweet 16, the most of any other conference. There was no one really on the bubble this year that made the field -- NC State was the closest, and the Wolfpack made it fairly comfortably as an 8-seed, only to upset 1-seed Villanova in the East. So that was part of the reason.
ACC teams in the past have either had bad draws or been fringe Tournament teams to begin with; NC State was neither of those. Every other ACC team that made the field was seeded 1-4. Putting five teams in the Sweet 16, though, ultimately gave the league its highest cash windfall in its history, per David Teel of the Daily Press.
Bad draws did ultimately do the ACC in as the Tournament progressed, though -- and yet, the league still did well for itself. Virginia was the only school whose Tournament run could arguably be looked at as a failure. The Cavaliers were the No. 2 seed in the East, but the team that took them down in the second round -- 7th-seeded Michigan State -- ultimately made the Final Four.
Duke is the only team remaining, and will face Michigan State in the national semifinal in Indianapolis on Saturday with a very, very good chance of advancing to take on what will likely be a still-undefeated Kentucky team. It will be a matchup for the ages, but ultimately, whether Duke wins or not won't change anyone's opinion of the ACC.
The league needs to continue its marked improvement this year, and there are good and bad signs moving forward. A lot of the top teams this year should stay there, but some may fall back a bit -- and it's a bad time to do that, as there are some teams from the bottom that could make a pronounced leap.
So if the only thing holding the ACC back was its bottom-feeder teams not performing up to par, that could start to change next season -- even as the top continues to be strong.
So let's take a look at the outlook for these teams moving into next season, concentrating on the teams that made the field of 68 and are now eliminated:
VIRGINIA
The Cavaliers could never quite get into rhythm after losing Justin Anderson to a broken finger, even when he was able to return to the lineup. That, combined with a bad NCAA Tournament draw, saw them make an early exit. But All-American Malcolm Brogdon has already announced he's returning for his senior season, and Justin Anderson will very likely join him for his senior campaign. Starting point guard London Perrantes will be a junior, and big men Anthony Gill and Mike Tobey will be seniors. The Cavaliers will only lose senior forward Darion Atkins. It'll be tough to replace his defense, but Virginia has had guys make the leap every year, and someone no doubt will. Virginia will be right back in the thick of the ACC title picture.
NORTH CAROLINA
The Tar Heels had a late lead on Wisconsin, and -- not unlike their other games against elite teams -- couldn't quite hold on to it. But they beat their first two opponents and advanced to the Sweet 16 for the first time since 2012, so that's something. Head coach Roy Williams said on his radio show Monday that he didn't expect anyone to leave school early, though he's been surprised before. If the Tar Heels return intact, they'll lose only minor role players (Desmond Hubert and Jackson Simmons) and return their entire starting five. It will be a senior-laden group, and it will no doubt get a lot of preseason hype -- but their returners will need to keep taking steps forward, because this year they were good but not quite good enough.
NC STATE
It wasn't a surprise for the followers of the Wolfpack that they managed to barely edge 9-seed LSU, only to play a great game against 1-seed Villanova and pull the upset there. It was equally unsurprising that they would lose to 4-seed Louisville in the Sweet 16, a team that they'd beaten on the road less than a month earlier. But this was a relatively young group, and if the pieces can return intact -- the key ones here being guard Trevor Lacey, a second-team All-ACC performer, and point guard Cat Barber, who came into his own in the second half of the season -- this team could easily be picked among the top 3 in the ACC, or even higher.
The bigs will need to continue to develop, but assuming there's not a ton of attrition, they lose only role player Desmond Lee. Next year's group could eliminate the puzzling losses and end up being a high NCAA Tournament seed capable of a deeper run; head coach Mark Gottfried has already reached two Sweet 16's in his four seasons.
NOTRE DAME
Whether or not the Irish can duplicate this season's success -- an Elite 8 run that ended just a whisker away from knocking off the Goliath in undefeated Kentucky -- is more than up in the air. Notre Dame loses seniors Pat Connaughton and Jerian Grant, the heart and soul of this year's group, and don't bring in a top-100 recruit. Guards Steve Vasturia and Demetrius Jackson will be juniors and improved a ton this season, as did rising senior Zach Auguste (assuming he returns). But those are two big voids to fill, and considering how much the Irish struggled without Grant in 2013-14, there's no telling how much of a step back they'll take.
LOUISVILLE
The Cardinals stumbled into the postseason only to rebound and somehow make an Elite 8 run -- very nearly a Final Four run, losing in overtime to Michigan State in the Elite 8 -- in spite of an utter lack of shooters. Starting point guard Chris Jones was kicked off the team in February, and he was a senior, so he would have been gone regardless. Senior wing Wayne Blackshear graduates, and sophomore Terry Rozier is going to the NBA, as is junior forward Montrezl Harrell. Leading scorer and rebounder, gone. Freshmen Quentin Snider made a lot of progress, but the Cardinals lose sophomore Anton Gill to transfer, who won the NC State game with a flurry of scoring off the bench.
Pitino is high on his incoming freshmen, particularly shooting guard Donovan Mitchell and forward Deng Adel. But Louisville is going to have to add some transfer talent in the off-season here if it even wants to think about competing for a top-four spot in the ACC next season.
THE REST
Duke will take a step back next year, particularly if all three freshmen (Jahlil Okafor, Tyus Jones and Justise Winslow) go pro, but the Blue Devils still have an very good class coming in -- it's just not this class (few are). They'll still likely vie for a top-four spot, and they'll certainly make the NCAA Tournament. The only other ACC team still alive in any postseason right now is Miami; the Hurricanes made the Final Four of the NIT and they don't have any seniors on the roster. Assuming everyone returns, the Hurricanes will be expected to take yet another step forward with guard Angel Rodriguez and forward Sheldon McClellan leading the way.
Syracuse is going to be in limbo for awhile after the NCAA sanctions levied against them, but if forward Chris McCullough comes back, they'll at least have a pretty solid starting five. They'll be a middle-of-the-pack team, more than likely, as will Pittsburgh. The Panthers lost in the first round of the NIT, but they had some nice moments this season. Head coach Jamie Dixon is going to have to add some talent and tweak his defense to compete for the top half of the league, though.
Florida State could end up being a dark horse in the ACC race. The Seminoles finished 17-16, but will add an elite recruit in Dwayne Bacon (who won the McDonald's All-America dunk contest yesterday). Malik Beasley and Terance Mann are top-100 recruits as well. They'll join Xavier Rathan-Mayes, Phil Cofer and the rest of the Seminoles -- the only senior on this year's team was center Kiel Turpin, who played less than a third of FSU's minutes.
Two teams decided to stick with their respective head coaches -- for now -- in the offseason: Clemson and Georgia Tech. Brad Brownell will be entering his sixth year at Clemson next season; he's been to the NCAA Tournament once with the Tigers, but that was in his first season. Still, he's taken rosters often devoid of talent and made something out of them. At what point, though, does that lack of talent start to come back on him? That remains to be seen.
Brian Gregory enters his fifth year at Georgia Tech, and while the Yellow Jackets lost a lot of close games this year, at a certain point that starts to go a bit beyond bad luck. This was his worst season since his first one as Georgia Tech finished 12-19. If everyone returns for Georgia Tech, though, they should take some steps forward. In theory. Marcus Georges-Hunt is a very good player, Charles Mitchell was a force down low and some of the other young players have to continue to develop. This is likely Gregory's last chance.
Then there are the three teams with first-year head coaches who turned some heads this year in Boston College (Jim Christian), Wake Forest (Danny Manning) and Virginia Tech (Buzz Williams). Obviously, those three schools are going to need a lot of help coming in -- plus develop the talent they already have -- but they appear to be headed in the right direction.
