MADISON, Wis. -- If you look strictly at Las Vegas point spreads, then this is exactly where Wisconsin's football team should be at this point: 3-2 through five games of the 2013 season. In that regard, the Badgers have played as well as most pundits expected.
Of course, Wisconsin fans always hope for more, and the most excruciating part is the Badgers nearly provided those heroics. Instead, a 32-30 loss at Arizona State and a 31-24 loss at Ohio State have Wisconsin unranked in the national polls as October arrives.
Here are five things we've learned about the Badgers as they reach their first bye week of the season.
1. Wisconsin still needs a No. 2 wide receiver
The fact we've been talking about this issue for two seasons and are no closer to a resolution should be cause for alarm. Yes, Jared Abbrederis is an All-Big Ten receiver with an NFL future ahead of him. But he can't continue to be the only legitimate threat in the passing game if Wisconsin is to succeed in the Big Ten.
Abbrederis has caught 33 passes for 572 yards with four touchdowns. No other wide receiver on the team has caught more than six passes (Jordan Fredrick). In fact, Wisconsin's wide receivers not named Abbrederis have caught a total of 16 passes for 199 yards with no touchdowns.
Wisconsin's other four receiving scores have gone to three different tight ends (Jacob Pedersen, Sam Arneson and Brian Wozniak) and one fullback (Derek Straus).
Abbrederis is leading all Big Ten players in receiving yards per game (114.4) and is one of just two Big Ten receivers averaging more than 91 yards per outing. If Abbrederis can't sustain those numbers, the Badgers could stumble.
2. The running game is the team's biggest offensive strength
Badgers running back Melvin Gordon was serious this spring when he declared his intent for the backfield to be just as good without Montee Ball. If that sounded crazy at the time, it certainly doesn't now.
Gordon has burst onto the college football scene with 68 carries for 698 yards and seven touchdowns. His 139.6 yards per game ranks eighth nationally, and his 10.3 yards per carry leads the nation among players with at least 40 rushing attempts.
Last season, Ball averaged 130.7 yards per game and 5.1 yards per carry on his way to winning the Doak Walker Award. He also averaged nearly 12 more carries per game than Gordon is right now.
The reason Gordon's touches are low is because of the success backfield mate James White is having this season, too. White is averaging 94.6 yards per game and has scored four touchdowns.
Freshman Corey Clement won't see much time now that Big Ten play has begun, but he is a star in the making. Clement rushed for more than 100 yards in his first two college games, and he's already scored four touchdowns.
Wisconsin can expect future opponents to stack the box and make the Badgers win through the air. That could put a dent in Gordon and White's statistics, but they're too talented to drop off the map entirely.
3. Dave Aranda has made progress with his 3-4 defense
One of the most intriguing storylines this offseason was Aranda's implementation of a base 3-4 rather than the 4-3 Wisconsin has used with its front seven in seasons past. Players raved about the change, and their play has shown why they were so excited.
The idea was to create more freedom for players to make plays, and that appears to be what has happened. Wisconsin ranks No. 8 in the country in total defense (272.6 yards per game). The Badgers are 14th in rushing defense (99.4 yards per game) and 17th in passing defense (173.2 yards). They also rank 15th in scoring defense (14.6 points per game).
Though the sample size is smaller than a full season from last year, we can still compare those numbers. A year ago, Wisconsin allowed 128.9 rushing yards per game and 193.6 passing yards. The Badgers also allowed 19.1 points per game.
We'll see how teams respond to the 3-4 when they get more film of it as the season progresses. But the front seven has been a bright spot for the Badgers thus far, and linebacker Chris Borland's 46 tackles lead the way.
4. Secondary concerns persist
In 2011, Wisconsin had the most prolific offense in program history with quarterback Russell Wilson and running back Montee Ball as teammates. But the Badgers' downfall was an inability on the secondary's part to prevent big plays (see last-minute losses to Michigan State and Ohio State).
No one will compare this year's offense to the one Wisconsin had in 2011. But there are some similarities in the team's problems preventing huge gains against the pass. For as good as the Badgers' front seven has been, that's how shaky the back end has performed at times.
The first issues arose against Arizona State when the secondary accounted for all six penalties for 76 yards. Freshman cornerback Sojourn Shelton was flagged for two pass interference calls and a holding, while redshirt sophomore cornerback Darius Hillary also drew two pass interference flags. The secondary later had problems stopping Arizona State's back shoulder fade throws as the Sun Devils marched down the field for touchdown drives in the fourth quarter.
One of the biggest gaffes of the season came in the final seconds of the Ohio State game, when quarterback Braxton Miller connected with receiver Corey Brown on a 40-yard touchdown pass. Cornerback Peniel Jean allowed Brown to run free on a post route, and he didn't have help over the top from safety Dezmen Southward. Brown caught the touchdown with one second remaining in the half to put Ohio State ahead 24-14.
That play was eerily similar to the 40-yard touchdown pass Miller threw two years earlier, which beat the Badgers in Columbus, 33-29.
The secondary has done some good things this season -- including intercepting four passes -- but it cannot continue to make big mistakes for the Badgers to have a chance in big games.
5. The Badgers are a good Big Ten team, not a great one
It appears Wisconsin's streak of three straight Big Ten championships and Rose Bowl appearances is about over. Ohio State's 31-24 victory in Columbus last week gave the Buckeyes a significant edge in the Leaders Division race. And barring two OSU losses, the Badgers' chances of returning to Indianapolis and Pasadena are slim.
Wisconsin is good enough to beat every team on the schedule that it is supposed to beat. This season, that might even mean 10 victories thanks to a relatively soft conference slate. But the difference between good teams and great ones are winning the games nobody thinks you can win.
Arizona State and Ohio State were those two games for Wisconsin. And the loss to Ohio State in particular will likely mean the difference between another Rose Bowl opportunity and an appearance in the Capital One Bowl or Outback Bowl. It's better than no postseason, of course, but it's not where Wisconsin wants to be at the end of each season.
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