This week’s three takeaways focuses on the first-place Orioles, the perplexing Reds, and the inevitabling Nationals. No, you’re making up words…
Baltimore Orioles: 41-34
The Orioles are in first place. The Orioles just swept a Sunday doubleheader started by Ubaldo Jimenez and Chris Tillman, neither of whom allowed a run. Somehow, the more unexpected of those performances belonged to Tillman. So it’s been a weird season to say the least, and it doesn’t seem particularly likely that the Orioles will maintain their grip on first place, not when they keep optioning perhaps their most talented pitcher to Triple-A, or regularly feature Delmon Young in the lineup. Still, they’ve gone 18-5 following a three-game losing streak to open the month, and should be receiving Jonathan Schoop and his .940 OPS back from the disabled list in the near future. It’s unclear what the Orioles can do to bolster yet another unlikely playoff run, but perhaps just getting healthy (and adding Kevin Gausman to their 25-man roster) will be enough.
Cincinnati Reds: 34-40
The Reds aren’t very good, and were predicted by most to finish no better than fourth, so… this isn’t exactly breaking news, right? Perhaps not, but it might be more of a surprise than you think. When you look at Cincinnati on the individual level, it doesn’t jibe with their overall record. Sure, they’ve operated without (a healthy) Devin Mesoraco for most of the season, but Brayan Pena has been a league average hitter at catcher (and Tucker Barnhart has been slightly better). Joey Votto and Todd Frazier are two of the best bats in the entire league. Jay Bruce and Marlon Byrd have been above league average (by OPS+) too. Zack Cozart was tremendous before getting hurt, and his replacement Eugenio Suarez has hit well too. Billy Hamilton is by far their worst regular at the plate and even he makes up some ground on defense. Presumably with all this going right at the plate, a bad team would have a bad staff. But Johnny Cueto has been his excellent self, and rookies Anthony DeSclafani and Michael Lorenzen have stepped up where Mike Leake has faltered. The fifth spot has been a disaster, but that goes for a majority of teams in the league. So with a decent rotation and better than average lineup, it’s got to be the bullpen, right? Well Aroldis Chapman and J.J. Hoover form one of the more dominant one-two punches in relief thus far this season. Add in a solid Manny Parra and Ryan Mattheus and it’s hard to figure how this team is losing so many games. Just something to think about.
Washington Nationals: 42-34
The Nationals are a given. They started the season off by bumping a guy who just posted a sub-3.00 ERA from the rotation in favor of the dude they paid $200M+. They featured a loaded lineup that allowed them to move a guy who already has double-digit steals and homers for minor-league depth. They were in the playoffs before the season began. But then the season began, and they lost Doug Fister for an extended period. Stephen Strasburg lost himself for an extended period. They had spot starts from A.J. Cole and Joe Ross, not to mention Tanner Roark shuttling in from the bullpen. Their once loaded lineup has seen heavy doses of Danny Espinosa, presumably squeezed out prospect Michael Taylor, and more Clint Robinson than anyone but Mrs. Robinson could reasonably ask for. And yet… and yet the Nationals boast a 2.5 game lead and a +29 run differential. A stint on the DL seems to have made a world of difference for Strasburg, and it’s hard to imagine that Ian Desmond could get worse. There also seems to be some likely progression from Zimmermann and Gonzalez in the rotation. Basically, as long as Bryce Harper is upright and functional, this team is a lock for the playoffs, and after that… who knows. Just like we thought all along.
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