I know it's super early for 2010 IDP rankings. However, I always like to start them early and get a foundation built. I will continue to update these rankings throughout the offseason to reflect changes in free agency, defensive schemes, defensive playing time, rookie draft picks, etc.
I would also love to get feedback from my readers. Often times, we get stuck in our own philosophies and tendencies. So it's nice to get a different perspective on my rankings. Your comments will definitely influence my rankings.
Well, enough chit-chat. Here are the preliminary 2010 IDP defensive back rankings:
Defensive Backs
Key:
FA = 2010 Free Agent
DSC = Possible 2010 Defensive Scheme Change
S = Possible Sleeper/Undervalued Player
B = Possible Bust/Overvalued Player
R = Injury Risk
Scoring System:
Solo Tackle = 2 points
Assist = 1 point
Sack = 7 points
Interception = 12 points
Fumble Recovery = 5 points
Drafting Philosophy:
Defensive backs have the most variability in point production from year-to-year. In other words, your top 20 defensive backs in 2010 could be quite different from your top 20 defensive backs in 2009 (especially in "big play leagues").
Much of this variability is because, many times, a
defensive back's production is heavily tied to the
performance of that specific team's front seven. Their
production is also heavily tied to how they are used in
the defensive scheme (especially safeties).
For example,
Roman Harper started off the 2009
season very well. However, after both of New Orleans'
cornerbacks got injured, they started playing Harper in
coverage more as opposed to bringing him up close to
the line of scrimmage to stop the run. Consequently,
his tackle numbers severely dipped.
In addition, the defensive back position, more than any other position has the most substantial amount of fantasy producers on the waiver wire because many unexpected fantasy performers emerge from the defensive back throughout the season (e.g. Bernard Pollard).
With this being said, I find it hard to use one of
my first defensive picks on a defensive back. In
reality, there aren't many "locks" at that this
position as there are at the linebacker position (e.g.
Patrick Willis,
Jon Beason,
London Fletcher, etc.).
Therefore, I usually try to grab a solid veteran
fantasy producer like LCB
Antoine Winfield or SS
Brian Dawkins and get riskier at this
position with my other picks. Not only does this free
me up to use higher draft picks on other defensive
positions, but it also allows me to more easily drop
players during the season to pick up potential
defensive back studs off of the waiver wire.
1. SS Bernard Pollard (HOU) - What a story this is. After being cut by the Chiefs before the season started, Pollard signed with the Texans in Week 4 and wasted no time in becoming a fantasy stud. In 14 games, Pollard had 82 solo tackles, 19 assists, three FRs, four INTs, 1.5 sacks, and two defensive TDs. I wouldn't expect two defensive TDs again, but Pollard does provide the ultimate mix of dependable tackling and big-play production.
2.
FS Eric Weddle (SD) - Weddle was the
number one defensive back on most fantasy rankings
heading into the 2009 season. His value takes a slight
dip because of his injury and also because his overall
tackling numbers were a bit below his usual average.
Injury free, he should be able to rebound next year and
be a top two or three defensive back.
3.
SS Tyvon Branch (OAK)
- Branch had a very nice tackling year,
registering 97 solo tackles and 26 assists, and is a
top five DB in tackling-heavy leagues. Most of his
value resides in the fact that he plays in the SS
position in Oakland, which has proven to be a very
lucrative position in the past (e.g. Gibril Wilson). As
long as he stays in Oakland as the starting SS, he's
worth an early-round selection.
FA
4. SS Yeremiah Bell (MIA) - Over the last two seasons, Bell has averaged over 95 solo tackles. It doesn't get much better than that for a defensive back. Bell is often times brought up close to the line of scrimmage for run support, and is therefore used in a similar fashion to that of a linebacker. Bell is one of the safest choices at the defensive back position. You can expect 90+ solo tackles again next season.
5.
FS O.J. Atogwe (STL)
- Atogwe is one of the best ballhawks in the
league. He always seems to be around the ball and,
consequently, he does as wonderful job of producing big
plays as well as solid tackle numbers. Playing on the
Rams is an added bonus since their defense is
consistently on the field for much of the game. Atogwe
should remain in St. Louis and, now that he's healthy,
return to top five form.
FA
6.
SS Brian Dawkins (DEN)
- Yes, Dawkins is old as dirt (36 to be exact).
However, you will be hard-pressed to find a more
consistent fantasy defensive back. Over his nine seasons
in the league, Dawkins has consistently been a top 20
performer and his move to Denver has obviously taken his
value to another level. I wouldn't expect 95 solo tackles
again (a career-high) but, as long as he doesn't retire,
Dawkins looks to be a solid play heading into next
season.
Tier 2
7.
FS Dashon Goldson (SF) - Goldson got the
opportunity to become an every game starter this season
and he ran with it. I really like this kid. He gives you
a good combination of tackles (95 total tackles) and big
plays (4 INTs and 3 sacks). Under defensive-minded head
coach Mike Singeltary, Goldson is only going to get
better.
S
8.
SS Roman Harper (NO) - Harper started
off the season extremely hot. He was consistently putting
up 7-9 total tackles per week. However, because of
injuries at both cornerback positions, New Orleans
stopped putting Harper in the box and used him more in
coverage. This hurt his overall 2009 numbers (they were
still solid). With the cornerbacks healthy again, look
for Harper to further improve upon his 2009 numbers.
FA
9.
SS/WLB Bryan Scott (BUF) - Who? In my
scoring system, Scott averaged over 17 points per game
largely due to the Bills switching him to WLB during the
middle of the season. If the Bills opt to use Scott in
his hybrid SS/WLB role again next year, he will be a top
10 defensive back. However, his value slides quite
substantially if he is moved back solely to the SS
position. There's also a chance he doesn't start at all.
With this being said, keep your eye on Scott's status.
S
10. FS Louis Delmas (DET) - Delmas, in my opinion, will come into the 2010 draft, being slightly overvalued. Yes, he was the 4th leading scorer for defensive backs in my scoring system. However, those numbers are highly inflated to due to two defensive touchdowns and a safety. When looking purely at his tackle numbers, he had 64 solos tackles and 29 assists and only 2 INTs which are decent, but not fantastic numbers. B
Tier 3
11.
LCB Charles Woodson (GB) - I typically
don't like drafting "big play" cornerbacks like Woodson
because their production often times varies from
year-to-year. However, Woodson is a rarity, in that he
has shown that he can come up with big plays year in and
year out. In addition, he had 71 solo tackles last year
which is great for a cornerback. Although, I wouldn't
expect the same level of tackle production next year,
Woodson deserves to be a top 15 pick.
12.
FS Antoine Bethea (IND) - Bethea has
managed to string together two top 20 seasons in a row
from his free safety position. Much of the attention in
Indy goes to the oft-injured SS Bob Sanders. However,
Bethea is the true fantasy star of the Colts secondary.
Look for Bethea to continue his trend of top 20 finishes
in 2010.
FA
13.
LCB Antoine Winfield (MIN) - Winfield's
value will probably take a slight hit heading into the
2010 draft because his overall 2009 stats were below
average due to injury problems. In my opinion, Winfield
is the best tackling cornerback in the league and he
plays in a defensive scheme that uses Tampa-2, which
gives Winfield above average tackle opportunities. With
this being said, Winfield, when healthy, is a low
DB1/High DB2.
S
14. LCB Charles Tillman (CHI) - Tillman's production dropped substantially in 2009 in large part due to re-occurring injuries. Tillman is one of the top five tackling fantasy cornerbacks and he also provides decent big-play upside. If he can stay healthy, he remains a top 15 selection for defensive backs.
15.
SS Troy Polamalu (PIT) - Polamalu is
overrated in the same way as SS Bob Sanders. He's a
fantastic NFL player in real-life but when it comes to
fantasy football, he's more of a Tier 3 type of player.
"Mr. Head and Shoulders" does have a knack for finding
the ball, however, and has top 20 value
if he can manage to stay healthy for a full
season. With all this in mind, don't be fooled by the big
name and reach for Polamalu too early though (i.e. Tier 1
or Tier 2).
B ,
R
16. SS Adrian Wilson (ARI) - I remember the days when Wilson was the best DB since sliced bread (circa 2004-2006). His disappointing 2007 and 2008 seasons left Wilson undrafted in many IDP leagues. However, under new defensive coordinator Bill Davis' aggressive defensive scheme, Wilson has had a resurgence. I like Wilson's big-play upside along with his run-stopping ability. Consequently, I have Wilson re-entering the Top 20. Welcome back!
17.
SS Jermaine Phillips (TB) - Phillips was
on many IDP owners watch lists when the season began and
he probably would have had a solid season if he had not
went down with a season-ending injury in Week 2. In his
place, Tanard Jackson, but together a top 10 year. I
foresee Phillips picking up where Jackson left off next
season.
S ,
R
Tier 4
18.
FS Dawan Landry (BALT) - Landry was used
more in stopping the run this year than in previous years
and his tackle numbers reflected this fact. Landry had
100 total tackles and he threw in five INTs. I expect
some subsidence of his tackle numbers but not enough to
but him out of the top 15.
FA
19.
FS Darren Sharper (NO) - Many readers
may be wondering why I have the No. 3 2009 point scorer
for DBs listed so low: his numbers were significantly
inflated. Sharper had four defensive touchdowns in 2009
and nine interceptions. You take away those four
defensive touchdowns and Sharper falls back to a
mid-level option at best. And I'm willing to bet my left
nut that he doesn't have 4 defensive TDs again next year.
OK, maybe not my nut. But, you get the point.
FA ,
B
20.
RCB Richard Marshall (CAR) - Marshall,
along with
Charles Tillman and Antoine Winfield, is
one of the top five tackling cornerbacks in the league.
In all four years in the league, Marshall has had 68 solo
tackles or more and usually throws in a couple of sacks
and a couple of INTs. He has a fairly significant chance
of being a top 25 performer every year.
FA
21.
FS Danieal Manning (CHI) - Through the
first 10 games of the season, Manning was one of the best
fantasy safeties in the league. However, he was benched
by Head Coach Lovie Smith in Week 11 for blowing too many
coverages. It remains to be seen how the Bears will use
Manning moving forward. However, I expect him to be the
starter next year and to put up top 20 numbers. But, lets
wait and see.
FA
22.
SS Erik Coleman (ATL) - If you're in a
tackle-heavy league, Coleman is one of the better options
you have at this position. In 2009, he registered 116
total tackles. In fact Coleman has had 100 total tackles
or more in five out of his six seasons in the NFL. On the
down side, he doesn't generate many big-plays.
S
23.
SS Brandon Meriweather (NE) - Although
Meriweather finished within the top 15 DBs for points
scored, almost 1/4 points came in one game. With this
being said, I really don't think Meriweather is a top 20
defensive back. However, he doesn't have a ton of
competition for tackles in New England and he's young and
still learning, so he remains in the top 25.
B
24. SS George Wilson (BUF) - Ranking Wilson and really any player in the Bills secondary is a difficult task this early in the off-season. Starting at SS last season, Wilson finished in the top 15 for points scored and he missed the first three games of the season. If he is named the starting SS, he will more than likely move into at least the top 20, if not the top 15. S
Tier 5
25.
FS LaRon Landry (WASH) - Landry make
significant strides last season in becoming a top 30
defensive back. He managed to post a career-high in solo
tackles with 76 and he missed the last game of the
season. I expect the former sixth overall pick to make
further strides in 2010 and potentially crack the top 25.
S
26.
SS Mike Brown (KC) - Mike or "Michelle"
Brown, as I like to call him, surprisingly finished in
the top 10 for points scored at this position in 2009.
Much of this was due to his above average tackle
opportunities (KC's defense was on the field a lot). I
think the Chiefs are going to be much improved next year
and consequently Browns numbers will take a hit. And
there's always a good chance he gets hurt. Hence, the
lower ranking.
R
27. RCB Cedric Griffin (MIN) - Griffin came into the 2009 season as one of the top ranked cornerbacks thanks to his back-to-back 80+ solo tackle seasons. Cedric has somewhat of an offseason tackle-wise by only coming up with 65 solo tackles. However, he made up for it with a career-high four INTs. With a healthy Winfield back in the lineup next, look for Griffin's tackle numbers to rise slightly.
28.
LCB Nick Harper (TEN) - Harper is one of
those cornerbacks you love to own. He sucks just enough
for opposing QBs to throw at him, so he can rack up good
tackle numbers, but, he's not so bad were he gets benched
and gets you nothing. In limited action due to injury in
2009, Harper average nearly seven solo tackles per game.
Harper should be good for 80+ total tackles and a few
picks next year.
FA ,
S
29. RCB Cortland Finnegan (TEN) - Finnegan, similar to teammate Nick Harper, is a cornerback at which many opposing CBs love to throw at. Consequently, Finnegan typically has above average tackle and interception opportunities. For the second straight season, Finnegan had five INTs. For these reasons, Finnegan makes it into the top 30.
30.
SS Quintin Mikell (PHI) - I've never
been a huge fan of Mikell's. It seems as though every
week in which I pick him up, he burns me. However, over
the course of a full season his numbers tend to average
out. In fact, in each of the last two seasons, Mikell has
finished with top 30 numbers and he set a career high for
total tackles last season with 97. He's usually a
dependable DB3.
This article by Ryan Sitzmann was originally
published on
Bleacher
Report.
