KANSAS CITY, Mo. -- This draft, 2015, is the draft that will stick, one way or another. A pile of 10 picks might turn into 10 players. Or 12. Or eight. Or six. Or 15. All we know is the size of the stack the Kansas City Chiefs showed up at the casino with.
The rest?
The rest is the fun part. Or not.
"I think they're in a great spot," longtime talent evaluator Russ Lande tells FOXSportsKansasCity.com. "And they have a lot of picks, the draft is very deep, and you've got (general manager John) Dorsey and (director of player personnel) Chris Ballard and (coach) Andy Reid all working together until they have the people in place."
It's not just that it's a large haul to play with, with experienced hands doing the playing. It's also a haul that might determine the direction, in a general sense, the future of a good chunk of the current two-deep. Because check out the Chiefs' vets whose contracts are scheduled to be up after this fall, and take a deep breath: quarterback Chase Daniel, linebacker Justin Houston (assuming he signs his tender), linebacker Derrick Johnson (although his situation might be fluid), nosetackle Dontari Poe (ditto), safety Eric Berry (double ditto), cornerback Sean Smith (triple ditto), defensive end Mike DeVito, safety Husain Abdullah, safety Tyvon Branch, wide receiver Jason Avant and offensive linemen Jeff Allen and Donald Stephenson.
"Their biggest things -- they're going to have to ultimately do something with Justin Houston and exercise (Dontari) Poe's option (for his fifth year)," offers Joel Corry, the former agent-turned-capologist/NFL analyst. "Those are two priorities. And then you have to figure out Sean Smith -- it's (starting) to look like he's a keeper at corner. That's probably where their priority is going to be in terms of spending money."
And the picture of whomever Dorsey and Reid peg as part of their long-term blueprint -- and that's always been Dorsey's aim, to keep the Chiefs' floor high year after year, while simultaneously pushing on the ceiling -- might become clearer based on the pieces added to the puzzle April 30-May 2.
Or not. Also the fun part.
"Also remember with his background in Green Bay, they're not ever a team that's going to spend big in free agency," Lande, a former NFL scout and founder of GM Jr Scouting, says of Dorsey.
"I think that they've learned the value that if you have to retain free agents, and you're not sold on them, let them leave and get the picks. That's sort of the Chiefs' model. That's what really good teams do -- Pittsburgh, New England, Green Bay. 'We might (lose) experienced guys but we're going to build through (the draft).'"
Call it The Packers Way. Or The Ron Wolf Way or The Ted Thompson Way or whatever cheese-flavored window dressing you like. Because the principle is the same, drilled into Dorsey over his Wisconsin years: Re-sign selectively, extend veteran contracts judiciously and when in doubt, backfill through the draft. Picks are precious, your spine, your backbone, your lifeblood.
"I take 'The Packers Way' to mean you're going to really forgo free agency for the most part (and) build through the draft," Corry offers. "And that's going to be the foundation of your team. (Dorsey) has already deviated from the Ted Thompson approach by signing (receiver Jeremy) Maclin ... but they didn't turn into the Miami Dolphins or Chip Kelly in free agency. Fortunately, they did get rid of all of those unproductive receivers.
Lookin' good! Flip through our photo album of Chiefs cheerleaders.
"We'll see how the draft shakes out. Because there are teams like San Francisco that have a multitude of picks that they knew they wouldn't be able to get all of them in (under the cap), so they ended up dealing picks so they've had more picks next year or maybe a trade to get rid of (some).
"But those (10) picks should be the lifeblood of this team since the 'Green Bay' philosophy is basically (to) avoid the first wave of free agency when it's a sellers market and then when you see something in the second wave of free agency, in the secondary phase, and then you come in -- when it's definitely a buyers market. That wasn't the case with Maclin, but if you were going to get him, you were going to have to strike quickly and then it filled a great need. And even with him, you still need other receivers."
So do you draft them early? Late? Or start bundling picks to maneuver yourself toward the guy you want, or toward better picks in 2016, when more holes might need to be filled?
Corry: "Or maybe the guy they want is gone, they say, 'Let's pull (out) and trade down and get more picks,' presumably for next year more than anything else."
Lande: "I think (Dorsey) is going to wheel and deal a little bit. I would be surprised if they don't (say), after the second to fourth round they get in there and say, 'Hey, we really want to get this guy.' Package those picks and maybe move up to get what they're looking for. And the good thing about having John, Chris and Andy to (decide) is that not only do they watch film, but they've done this a thousand times."
Dorsey served as Green Bay's director of college scouting from 1997-98 and from 2000-11. And this is interesting, too: The average Packer victories during those 14 respective autumns was 10.3, with 10 playoff berths and two Super Bowl trips along the way.
Trust your gut, but be careful not to stray too far from the book. The book won't leave you hanging.
"If you look at 'The Patriots Way,' it ain't worked anywhere except when Bill (Belichick) is running the show," Lande chuckles. "There's something to be said for 'The Packers Way.'"
You can follow Sean Keeler on Twitter at @SeanKeeler or email him at seanmkeeler@gmail.com.
