We're No. 1! We're No. 1!
Well, maybe. At least, we hope so.
U.S. Olympic Committee leaders refused to give a number when asked Sunday about how many medals American athletes will win at this summer's London Olympics. The closest they would come was USOC chairman Larry Probst saying he had ''chastised'' Seb Coe after the head of the London organizing committee said he thought China would overtake the Americans at the top of the medals table.
''Hopefully,'' Probst said at the USOC media summit, ''we can prove him wrong.''
Speaking at a USOC dinner last September, Probst put out a more direct challenge. Responding to other predictions that the Americans could finish behind China and Russia, he said: ''I'd be willing to bet we don't finish third.''
Not the boldest of guarantees given that the United States has won the medal count at the last four Summer Games. But China has, indeed, been gaining ground. Four years ago in Beijing, the Americans finished with 110 medals, 10 more than China. But the Chinese won the most gold medals with 51, while the U.S. was second with 36.
Coe has picked up on the trend.
''I think it will be China, U.S., and then Russia,'' he told The Associated Press last month. ''I just think if you look at it, in its entirety, (it will be) China.''
Luciano Barra, a former Italian Olympic official who projects Olympic results, also picked China to top the medals table. Barra has predicted that China would win 103 total medals, including 43 gold, while the U.S. would win 82 total medals, including 35 gold. He has Russia third with 76 and 30.
Alan Ashley, the USOC's chief of sport performance, agreed that China and Russia will be the Americans' biggest competition in the medals race. It will also be tougher to win because of the rise of smaller countries, including this year's host, Britain. Beyond that, though, Ashley wasn't saying much, which pretty much falls in line with the way USOC leadership has handled things for the last several Olympics.
The mantra of the last USOC chairman, Peter Ueberroth: Under-promise and over-deliver.
''I can't tell you where the number is going to end up, but I can say the athletes are preparing to compete at the highest level,'' Ashley said. ''We're going into this to be the best-prepared team we possibly can be. We want to go in and win the medal count, that's our objective. The number, I can't tell you.''
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REVENUE-SHARING: Sticking with its theme of the last several months, the USOC leadership offered very little about its revenue-sharing negotiations with the International Olympic Committee, but said things are progressing well.
''It's a complicated endeavor,'' CEO Scott Blackmun said. ''That's why the discussions are in their 16th, 17th month. We continue to make progress. We haven't gone backward at any point. We're closer than when we started in January 2011.''
Closing a deal with the IOC will greatly shape the future of American bids for the Olympics. It's no coincidence that this year's summit is in Dallas, which would have been a favorite to be a 2020 bid city had the USOC finished a deal in time to make a pitch for the next available Summer Games. Meanwhile, Denver and Reno are among the cities considering bids for the 2022 Winter Games.
Sensing some impatience on both the domestic and international fronts, Blackmun and CEO Larry Probst are now explaining their deliberate pace in terms of athletes. Message: Any concessions the USOC makes will affect the bottom line and that will impact the amount of money available to fund athletes.
At the heart of the dispute is a long-standing contract that gives the USOC a 20 percent share of global sponsorship revenue and a 12.75 percent cut of U.S. broadcast rights deals. The IOC believes the U.S. share is excessive and should be redistributed. Any new formula would go into effect after 2020.
''We're talking about a long-term arrangement with the IOC and it's really, really important we get this right and secure the financial future of the athletes,'' Probst said. ''It's important we get this done, but it's more important that we get it right.''
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HALL OF FAME:(at) The USOC introduced its 2012 Hall of Fame Class on Sunday. This list: Gail Devers (track), Jean Driscoll (paralympic track), Gary Hall Jr., (swimming), Lisa Fernandez (softball), Kristine Lilly (soccer), Dan O'Brien (decathlon), Jenny Thompson (swimming), the 2004 gold-medal softball team, coach Ed Temple (track and field), James Connolly (track and field) and late Sen. Ted Stevens, who authored the Congressional legislation that guides the Olympic movement in the United States.
