Conventional wisdom has it that big hitters who also can putt have the best chance to win the Masters.
The oddsmakers apparently have bought into that hypothesis, making Tiger Woods, Rory McIlroy and Phil Mickelson the favorites for the first major of the year, which starts Thursday at Augusta National.
Woods has earned four Green Jackets, Mickelson three, and the 22-year-old McIlroy is expected to be in that exalted company someday.
"There are four (reachable) par-5s on this course, so that means the long hitter is 16 strokes ahead of the average hitter before he even tees it up for four rounds of play," Gene Sarazen, who captured the second Masters, in 1935, once said.
Said Mickelson: "The thing about Augusta is that length is a big factor here. Even though you can win no matter how far you hit the golf ball, length is a factor and is an advantage.
"To be able to keep the ball in smaller sections on the green can be very advantageous."
And since the course has been lengthened over the years to nearly 7,500 yards, that would seem to make it even more difficult for a guy such as Luke Donald, the No. 1 player in the world, who would love to make the Masters his first major title.
However, Donald has a blueprint he can follow. He can take the approach of short-hitter Zach Johnson, who laid up on every par 5 for four days and played them in 11 under par on his way to winning the Green Jacket in 2007.
Other not-so-long hitters, such as Mike Weir (2003) and Trevor Immelman (2008), also have won in the last decade, and master putter Ben Crenshaw took home the Green Jacket in 1984 and 1995.
Cool Hand Luke certainly knows how to plot his way around Augusta — he tied for fourth last year and tied for third in 2005.
"I think my job is to keep controlling what I can control," said Donald, who believes the Masters gives him the best chance to win a major this year because he knows the course better than he knows the Olympic Club (U.S. Open), Royal Lytham & St. Annes (British Open) and the Ocean Course at Kiawah Island (PGA Championship).
"Obviously there's expectation, but I do believe the key to winning for me is to continually improve my driving. I think majors become trickier around the greens. They are firmer, smaller greens, usually. And Jack Nicklaus told me last year that he thinks he was successful because he drove it very well."
Donald might not hit the ball out of sight, but generally hits it straight. Coupled with his immaculate short game, it has helped him hold down the No. 1 spot in the World Golf Rankings for 43 of the last 45 weeks.
He reminded everyone of that by capturing the Transitions Championship to regain the top spot from McIlroy, two weeks after the next anointed one claimed the Honda Classic and ascended to No. 1 with a boatload of hoopla.
Despite that, Donald doesn't expect to command the spotlight this week.
"There might be a little bit more hype around me," said Donald, who is playing in his eighth Masters and 35th major. "I've been through that, and I still think Rory and obviously Tiger will be getting a lot of the attention.
"I'm excited about the majors. I've gained a lot of confidence and I'm looking forward to the challenges of Augusta."
With the four main characters — Woods, McIlroy, Mickelson and Donald — having won tournaments already this season, there is a tremendous buzz heading to the first major of the year.
Last season's Masters was considered the most wide-open in years, and you would have to say it lived up to the billing.
In a memorable climax, Charl Schwartzel of South Africa snatched the title by finishing with four consecutive birdies right when it seemed Adam Scott or Jason Day might become the first Australian to win at Augusta.
That came after McIlroy, already being fitted for his first Green Jacket, blew a four-stroke lead by closing with an 80.
This year promises to be more of the same on the excitement scale. One Las Vegas oddsmaker told the Golf Channel that this is the most exciting time to bet on golf because there are so many players who can win.
Keegan Bradley, the PGA champion, and Webb Simpson, last year's FedEx Cup runner-up, will be trying to become the first player to win in his initial appearance at Augusta since Fuzzy Zoeller in 1979.
Lee Westwood, No. 3 in the world after unseating Woods atop the rankings in 2010 and holding the top spot into last season, is another world-class player seeking his first major title, and has come close several times in recent years.
Steve Stricker has been one of the best players in the world for the last five years, but he is running out of time to win his first major — he's 45, and would be the oldest winner since Nicklaus claimed the last of his six Green Jackets in 1986.
Hunter Mahan injected his name into the conversation by winning the Shell Houston Open last week to become the first two-time winner on the PGA Tour this season.
And young American bombers Dustin Johnson, Bubba Watson and Nick Watney have threatened in majors before, and might be ready to break through.
If any of them win, it won't be a short story.
