October 18, 2015; Napa, CA, USA; Emiliano Grillo hoists the trophy during the final round of the Frys.com Open at Silverado Country Club. Mandatory Credit: Kyle Terada-USA TODAY Sports
Can Emiliano Grillo go back-to-back at the Safeway Open? We’ll have our answer by the end of this week.
Well, did you miss us? Just a few short weeks after the conclusion of the 2015-16 PGA Tour season at East Lake Golf Club, the 2016-17 season is set to get underway at this week’s Safeway Open.
While the season opener may have a new name, it’s the same old event. Formerly known as the Frys.com Open, the Safeway Open will play host to 140 of the PGA Tour’s top players, including many first-time members who only just earned their cards via the truncated Web.com Tour Finals. The host course, Silverado Country Club, is a 7,203-yard par 72 that often allows for moderately easy scoring.
As always, these rankings are based on a number of different factors, with course history and current form standing as the most important. With a bit of statistical analysis thrown in, we can get a comprehensive look at all the players who belong on our radar in a given week.
Without further ado, let’s go ten deep. Here are the best bets for success at the Safeway Open.
Mandatory Credit: Brett Davis-USA TODAY Sports
Paul Casey is the hottest player in this week’s field, full stop.
1
Paul Casey
No. 12, Three consecutive top five finishes
This Englishman appears to be the clear frontrunner this week. While he’ll be a first-timer at Silverado, his run of consecutive top fives over the last three playoff events represents better form than anyone else in the field. Casey hasn’t won on the PGA Tour since 2009, but he’ll still be the highest-ranked player at the season opener. With a couple of weeks off since his solo fourth at the Tour Championship, he should be ready to pick right back up where he left off.Next: Emiliano Grillo
Mandatory Credit: Brett Davis-USA TODAY Sports
Emiliano Grillo was last year’s big winner at Silverado, and he’s in pretty good form at the moment.
2
Emiliano Grillo
No. 24, This week's defending champion
This week’s defending champion, Grillo has a great chance to become the first repeat winner in this event’s history. He notched a pair of top 10s during the FedEx Cup playoffs, including a tie for second at The Barclays. What’s more, his form has been strong for months now, with eight top 15s in 12 worldwide starts dating back to May. With good memories of last year’s sudden death win over Kevin Na, he should be motivated to deliver a strong encore performance this week. He ranked 26th on the PGA Tour in birdie average last season.Next: Justin Thomas
Mandatory Credit: Brett Davis-USA TODAY Sports
Justin Thomas needs to work on his consistency, but converging trends help him to a high spot on this list.
3
Justin Thomas
No. 34, Three top 10s in last six starts
This Alabama product has shown plenty of game over his first two PGA Tour seasons, but he’s also demonstrated a penchant for inconsistency. Still, his strong run through the postseason, which included a pair of top 10s, may indicate a new normal for Thomas. He’s already reeled off five podium finishes in his brief career, including a solo third at last year’s Safeway Open. If he can carry his playoff momentum over to Silverado, he’ll have a great opportunity to bag his second PGA Tour win.Next: Matt Kuchar
Mandatory Credit: Bill Streicher-USA TODAY Sports
One of the biggest names in the field, Matt Kuchar should be both a crowd favorite and a threat to win this week.
4
Matt Kuchar
No. 17, Four top 20s in last six starts
Coming off of a strong week at the Ryder Cup, Kuchar will be among the biggest fan draws of the week. Fortunately for the galleries, the Georgia Tech product is playing well enough to make something happen this week — in addition to his performance at Hazeltine, he closed the FedEx Cup playoffs with a pair of decent performances, including a tie for fourth at the BMW Championship. While his history with Silverado isn’t extensive, memories from his tie for 21st back in 2014 should prove valuable. You simply can’t underestimate a player as consistent as he is.Next: Tony Finau
Mandatory Credit: Mark Konezny-USA TODAY Sports
If he can keep it in the fairway, Tony Finau will have a great chance to bag his second PGA Tour win.
5
Tony Finau
No. 78, Three top 25s in last four starts
With his last start coming just about a month ago, Finau should be more than ready to hit the ground running with the new season. His playoff run came to an end after a poor week at the BMW Championship, but he had gained some momentum before then, reeling off back-to-back top 25s in the first two postseason events. One of the game’s most dangerous players off the tee, Finau is always a threat to heat up and make a barrage of birdies. He’s made the cut in both of his appearances at Silverado, tying for 12th in 2014.Next: Phil Mickelson
Mandatory Credit: Brett Davis-USA TODAY Sports
While he’ll be a first-timer at Silverado, Phil Mickelson has the talent and the form to make a run this week.
6
Phil Mickelson
No. 15, 2-1-1 record at Ryder Cup
Not usually the type to play the fall events, Mickelson is making a competitive appearance in October for the first time in three years. Held in his home state of California, the Safeway Open should provide a great stage for the five-time major champion to get a head start on the race to the 2017 FedEx Cup. While Lefty didn’t play all that well during the playoffs, his Ryder Cup performance was impressive. After playing a busy schedule in 2016, he may be fatigued, but he still has major potential this week.Next: Kevin Na
Mandatory Credit: Thomas Joseph-USA TODAY Sports
Kevin Na would love to put last year’s playoff loss behind him and pick up a win this week.
7
Kevin Na
No. 39, Lost playoff at last year's Safeway Open
After a heartbreaking playoff loss to Emiliano Grillo at last year’s Safeway Open, Na will look to finish the job this time around. The Las Vegas resident lacks momentum — he finished in dead last at the Tour Championship — but the fall events always seem to bring out the best in his game. In terms of statistics, Na ranked second on the PGA Tour in strokes gained: approach-the-green last season, as well 23rd in scoring average. Despite the mediocre form, there are multiple reasons to be optimistic about him this week.Next: Jason Kokrak
Mandatory Credit: John David Mercer-USA TODAY Sports
Jason Kokrak’s strong form couldn’t lift him to the Tour Championship, but it just might come in handy this week.
8
Jason Kokrak
No. 89, Three consecutive top 25 finishes
He may have missed out on the Tour Championship in the end, but we can’t ignore this Xavier product’s terrific run through the FedEx Cup playoffs. Kokrak finished his season with three consecutive top 20 finishes, including a tie for seventh at The Barclays and a tie for eighth at the Deutsche Bank Championship. He hasn’t done too much in his prior appearances at Silverado, but he’s in the right kind of form to reverse that trend. With a ton of length off the tee and strong ball striking skills, he should be able to give himself plenty of scoring opportunities.Next: Jon Rahm
Mandatory Credit: Bill Streicher-USA TODAY Sports
Idle for more than a month now, Jon Rahm should be chomping at the bit to start his first full season off with a bang.
9
Jon Rahm
No. 133, Three top 25s in last four starts
His non-member status made him ineligible for the FedEx Cup playoffs, but this young Spaniard was playing some mighty impressive golf towards the end of the regular season. With three top 25s in his last four starts, including a tie for second at the RBC Canadian Open, he’s already established a reputation as a consistent player, and all the time off he’s had should help him play his best at Silverado. He lacks course experience this week, but it won’t be the first time he’s had to figure things out on the fly.Next: Jhonattan Vegas
Mandatory Credit: Butch Dill-USA TODAY Sports
After a dream 2015-16 season, Jhonattan Vegas will look to keep it going at Silverado.
10
Jhonattan Vegas
No. 73, Six top 25s in last eight starts
Who’s your pick to win this week? Let us know in the comments, and keep it here at Pro Golf Now for more updates from the PGA Tour.
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