PGA Tour: AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-Am Featured Fantasy Picks
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Vaughn Taylor was one of the PGA Tour’s most improbable winners of 2016. Will the 2017 edition of the AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-Am be similarly unpredictable?
PGA Tour surprises and upsets seem to be a continuing fantasy golf theme this season. Will the trend continue this week at Pebble Beach?
Fantasy sports are all about using data to make the most logical predictions, but every so often, we get a result that almost no one sees coming. Such was the case at last year’s AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-Am, where world No. 447 Vaughn Taylor managed to circle an incredible barrage of birdies on the back nine to shoot a closing 65 and win the tournament. This week, the game’s top pros will return to Pebble Beach, and while we probably won’t get as wild a result as Taylor’s win, anything is possible on the PGA Tour.
This week’s field isn’t as strong as that of the recently concluded Waste Management Phoenix Open, but there will still be a number of familiar faces teeing it up on the Monterey Peninsula this week. With exciting young guns and reliable vets in almost equal measure, fantasy managers will have plenty of flexibility.
Without further ado, let’s get to my five featured fantasy plays for this week. They should be viable in a number of different formats, but are specifically geared towards DFS leagues. Each player’s DraftKings salary is listed next to his name.
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Jon Rahm — $9,600
This young Spaniard has been immensely impressive during his brief time on the PGA Tour. In 14 starts dating back to last summer, Rahm has found the top 25 on nine occasions, so he’s set the tone for a long and consistent career on the game’s top golf circuit. Among those finishes are a tie for second at last summer’s RBC Canadian Open and a victory at the Farmers Insurance Open just a couple of weeks ago, so he’s been contending for trophies in addition to backdoor top 10s.
This week, Rahm will be the fifth-most expensive option in DraftKings, but even so, he should be able to provide great value. He hasn’t displayed any signs of slowing down since his Torrey Pines win, tying for 16th at the Waste Management Phoenix Open last week. What’s more, he’s strong from a statistical perspective – on the new PGA Tour season, he ranks 18th in strokes gained: tee-to-green and sixth in birdie average, so he’s converting on plenty of opportunities. His tremendous talent should help him overcome his notable lack of experience at Pebble Beach, so don’t be afraid to use him in any format. He’s only going to get better from here.
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Phil Mickelson — $9,300
After an average finish to last season, Mickelson has shown that he’s not messing around in 2017. The five-time major champion has reeled off three consecutive top 25 finishes to kick off the new season, and although he’s now a grizzled 46 years old, we really shouldn’t be surprised – with his window closing rapidly, he’s as motivated as ever. He hasn’t been truly contending for any trophies, but if he keeps posting good scores, the opportunities will come.
This week, we’ll get to see Mickelson try to become a five-time winner of the AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-Am. Given his strong recent run and a solid putting performance at TPC Scottsdale last week, he appears to be in the right form to pull it off, and we know he has the requisite track record. He’s also been enjoying a statistically strong season so far, ranking 31st or better on the PGA Tour in three out of four strokes gained categories. At $9,300 in DraftKings, the price tag is somewhat steep, but all-in-all reasonable – he’s a much less risky play than Jason Day or Dustin Johnson, both of whom are coming off missed cuts at the Farmers Insurance Open.
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Justin Rose — $9,200
The men’s gold medalist at last summer’s Rio Olympics, Rose is one of the most prominent players in this week’s field. The Englishman has picked up at least one worldwide win in each of the last seven years and has been a Ryder Cup stalwart, so he should draw a fair number of spectators at Pebble Beach, both friendly and hostile. Thanks to a variety of factors, it looks like it could be a great event for the 36 year old.
While a nagging back injury kept him sidelined for a few weeks toward the end of last season, Rose has wasted no time proving to fantasy managers that he can still be trusted in the new year. In two January starts, he posted a pair of top five finishes: a solo second at the Sony Open in Hawaii and a tie for fourth at the Farmers Insurance Open. To go along with that momentum, Rose will carry some experience into this week – he tied for sixth at last year’s AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-Am, his tournament debut. Statistically, he’s been rising to the occasion across the board, so you can feel good about plugging him into your fantasy lineup.
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Adam Hadwin — $7,300
After a pair of quiet seasons to kick off his tenure as a PGA Tour member, Hadwin will enter the AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-Am playing some of the best golf of his career. The short game specialist has really found his groove since the calendar turned to 2017, making him a versatile option who can pull his weight in all kinds of fantasy formats.
In three starts in 2017, Hadwin, a native of British Columbia, is three-for-three with a pair of top 15 finishes: a solo second at the CareerBuilder Challenge and a tie for 12th at last week’s Waste Management Phoenix Open. As usual, he’s been dynamite on the greens, and he had a solid scrambling week at TPC Scottsdale, ranking 13th in strokes gained: around-the-green. With that kind of touch, he’s been able to post some incredible scores, including his third round 59 at the CareerBuilder Challenge less than a month ago.
While this week will mark his Pebble Beach debut, his short game makes him a threat to contend anywhere he tees it up, and he’s performed well at other classic tracks in the past. Available at a reasonable salary in DraftKings, consider giving him a play.
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Shane Lowry — $7,000
He may be more known for his accomplishments on the European Tour, but this Irishman has taken a liking to Pebble Beach over the past couple of years – this week will mark his third consecutive appearance. Although he broke through with a win at the WGC-Bridgestone Invitational in 2015 and a tie for second at the U.S. Open last summer, Lowry was inconsistent for nearly all of 2016, and he will enter this week looking to recapture some of the form that carried him to a career high of 17th in the world ranking two years ago.
Fortunately for Lowry, momentum will be on his side – he’s found the top 35 in each of his last four worldwide starts, peaking with a tie for 16th at the Waste Management Phoenix Open last week. There, he ranked third in the field in strokes gained: tee-to-green, so he’s certainly hitting the ball well enough — it’s just a matter of getting it to go into the hole. His track record at Pebble Beach is mixed, but decent enough overall: two-for-two with a top 25 in 2015. If he can just get a little something going on the greens, he’s got the potential to provide major fantasy value this week.
Who’s in your fantasy lineup for the AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-Am? Let us know on Facebook or Twitter, and keep it here at Pro Golf Now for more PGA Tour updates.
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