While most prognosticators envisioned the World Series to be a contested affair, the first two outings were anything but. In Game 1, San Francisco used a three-run first inning to jump out on the Royals and cruised to a 7-1 victory. The Royals returned the favor in Game 2, notching five runs in the fifth inning on the way to a 7-2 win.
Count WhatIfSports.com among those expecting a close series. Our MLB simulation engine “played” the World Series 101 times, predicting the Giants to win 61.4 percent of the time, with a seven-game series the most common outcome.
With two games in the books, we've updated our prediction. Here are the latest odds:
WhatIfSports.com World Series Prediction (Updated after Game 2)
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|---|---|---|---|---|
| Matchup | Series Win % | 5-Games % | 6-Games % | 7-Games % |
| Giants | 50.5 | 16.8 | 15.8 | 17.8 |
| Royals | 49.5 | 10.9 | 23.8 | 14.9 |
While the Giants are still narrowly favored, the most common outcome is now a Royals title in six games. Should the series end in five or seven games, San Francisco is the more likely victor.
So how will the results of Game 3 affect the outcome of the series? We again turn to our MLB simulation engine.
If the Giants win Game 3:
WhatIfSports.com World Series Prediction If Giants Win Game 3
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|---|---|---|---|---|
| Matchup | Series Win % | 5-Games % | 6-Games % | 7-Games % |
| Giants | 78.2 | 25.7 | 34.7 | 17.8 |
| Royals | 31.8 | 0.0 | 13.9 | 7.9 |
If the Royals win Game 3:
WhatIfSports.com World Series Prediction If Royals Win Game 3
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|---|---|---|---|---|
| Matchup | Series Win % | 5-Games % | 6-Games % | 7-Games % |
| Giants | 29.7 | 0.0 | 8.9 | 20.8 |
| Royals | 70.3 | 25.7 | 27.7 | 16.8 |
Our simulation engine predicts the winner of Game 3 to win the World Series as well. Should the Giants win Game 3, they’re given a 78.2 percent chance to win the World Series. If the Royals earn the Game 3 win, we predict they’ll win the Fall Classic 70.3 percent of the time.
Simulate the matchup yourself using WhatIfSports.com’s free MLB SimMatchup.
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