Royals, Giants World Series Game 3 Simulation Prediction

BY foxsports • October 23, 2014

While most prognosticators envisioned the World Series to be a contested affair, the first two outings were anything but. In Game 1, San Francisco used a three-run first inning to jump out on the Royals and cruised to a 7-1 victory. The Royals returned the favor in Game 2, notching five runs in the fifth inning on the way to a 7-2 win.  

Count among those expecting a close series. Our MLB simulation engine “played” the World Series 101 times, predicting the Giants to win 61.4 percent of the time, with a seven-game series the most common outcome.

With two games in the books, we've updated our prediction. Here are the latest odds: World Series Prediction (Updated after Game 2)
Matchup Series Win % 5-Games % 6-Games % 7-Games %
Giants 50.5 16.8 15.8 17.8
Royals 49.5 10.9 23.8 14.9

While the Giants are still narrowly favored, the most common outcome is now a Royals title in six games. Should the series end in five or seven games, San Francisco is the more likely victor.

So how will the results of Game 3 affect the outcome of the series? We again turn to our MLB simulation engine.

If the Giants win Game 3: World Series Prediction If Giants Win Game 3
Matchup Series Win % 5-Games % 6-Games % 7-Games %
Giants 78.2 25.7 34.7 17.8
Royals 31.8 0.0 13.9 7.9

If the Royals win Game 3: World Series Prediction If Royals Win Game 3
Matchup Series Win % 5-Games % 6-Games % 7-Games %
Giants 29.7 0.0 8.9 20.8
Royals 70.3 25.7 27.7 16.8

Our simulation engine predicts the winner of Game 3 to win the World Series as well. Should the Giants win Game 3, they’re given a 78.2 percent chance to win the World Series. If the Royals earn the Game 3 win, we predict they’ll win the Fall Classic 70.3 percent of the time.

Simulate the matchup yourself using’s free MLB SimMatchup

Interested in building a team of players from the 2014 season?  McCutchen, Cain and Pence in the same outfield or Shields, Bumgarner and Kershaw in the same rotation? Try a season of SimLeague Baseball.

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