Only one more race remains before the first drivers are eliminated from the Chase for the Championship. There is just one race left in which to correct the mistakes of the last two for drivers that are on the bubble of elimination, and one more weekend to get through trouble free for anyone else wanting to advance. This week’s AAA 400 at Dover International Speedway might look an awful lot like the final race before the Chase at Richmond International Raceway with teams doing anything they can to secure a spot in the next round of competition.
The differing nature of this week’s race does not eliminate the fact that no driver has seen more success here than Jimmie Johnson. Next in line to the Dover throne would be teammate Jeff Gordon who carries the active marks for top-5s and top-10s at the track. Both drivers qualify well here, which is important considering that nearly 80% of Dover’s 89 races have been won from cars starting inside the top 10. In fact, only two drivers have won from starting positions outside of the top 10 since 2008.
Jimmie Johnson – When the NASCAR Sprint Cup circus heads to Dover International Raceway Johnson’s name as a favorite can’t be too far from the mark. While the team hasn’t quite hit their stride yet in the Chase, they did tally a top-5 effort in New Hampshire on a week when many other Chasers encountered stumbling blocks. The No. 48 team won the last two times they visited Dover, and have amassed nine victories in total at the track. His average finish there is 8.4, and there simply is no better early fantasy option at Dover than Johnson. His driver rating through the last 19 Dover races is an impressive 122.5, which should make him a team captain this week.
Kyle Busch – Despite leading 81 laps in the last Dover race, Busch finished 42nd after contact with Clint Bowyer put him in the wall. Last week even saw trouble for the No. 18 when he damaged his car in contact with Matt Kenseth, but the Chase driver battled back to bag a top 10 from a very unlikely situation. Busch has overcome his slump, and should be expected to contend this week. His Dover driver rating is 105.3, just one of four drivers over 100, and his average finish at the track is 14.4 from 19 tries. Busch is hungry to advance in the Chase, and nothing would convey his intentions more clearly than a win this week.
Joey Logano – Continuing to win is the surest way to keep other teams from gaining momentum. That has been the strategy of Penske Racing the past few weeks, and Logano picked up the baton last week in New Hampshire. The No. 22 driver has had a decent career at Dover, picking up seven top-10 finishes from 11 starts to earn an average finish of 14.7 and a driver rating of 81.3. Logano has a habit of outperforming at tracks where he hasn’t had the greatest success in the past, and his current strength does not seem to be letting up anytime soon. While either Penske car could be considered a strong fantasy play this week, Logano could offer greater upside this week.
Clint Bowyer – He may not have been one of the strongest options for fantasy rosters last week in New Hampshire, but Bowyer could make a solid case for inclusion this week. Bowyer’s Dover record does not include any wins, but he has gathered 10 top-10 finishes from 17 outings at the track. His driver rating in that span is 92.1, which is close to other top driver options this week. He only has one top-10 finish in the last five races, but he finished fourth at this track earlier this year. Bowyer isn’t one that would jump to the top of fantasy rosters this week, but his Dover history could suggest a solid second- or third-choice fantasy option this week.
Denny Hamlin – Hamlin sits near the fantasy bubble this week. The veteran driver absolutely has the speed and capability to turn in top results each week, but faltered and finished 37th in New Hampshire. The Joe Gibbs Racing driver now finds himself 13th in the Chase standings, and on the cusp of elimination. Hamlin should be in a much more secure position this week, but his average Dover finish is 19.6 and he has only scored three top-5s and six top-10s at the track. Earlier in the season it appeared as though Hamlin might contend for consistent wins and a championship, but Gibbs has struggled and the No. 11 team has not been immune. Fantasy players should view Hamlin as a risky option this week.
Kurt Busch – Busch heads to Dover knowing that he had a difficult race there earlier this year, and had a challenging race at New Hampshire just last week. The Chase contender finished 36th after trouble struck in New Hampshire, and hasn’t finished better than 12th at Dover since picking up his only win at the track back in 2011. While Busch has improved his performances late this season, the team is still searching for consistency. Two of his last six races have resulted in finishes outside of the top 30, which isn’t good for fantasy rosters or his Chase hopes. Busch is in danger of being eliminated from Chase contention this week if his fortunes don’t improve. He needs a trouble-free afternoon.
Kasey Kahne – Kahne was one of the many Chase drivers to suffer in New Hampshire. The fall of the No. 5 wasn’t as severe as some others, though, and Kahne remains in the clear to advance to the next round. That’s good news for the Hendrick Motorsports driver because his Dover resume isn’t terribly impressive. He finished 19th there earlier this season, and packs a driver rating of just 80.4. His average finish of 21st at the track includes just one top-5 finish from 21 tries. He also hasn’t scored a top 10 here since he finished ninth in this race two years ago. Kahne hasn’t finished inside the top 10 since winning in Atlanta and that is worrisome for his fantasy value this week.
Tony Stewart – It is nearing time for fantasy players to write Stewart off for the remainder of the season. The team owner continues to struggle, and could be falling victim to off-track circumstances. The veteran had a great opportunity to return to success last week in New Hampshire, one of his best tracks, but came up short to finish 30th in a very lackluster effort. Since returning to racing in Atlanta Stewart has only managed one top-15 outing, making it very tough for fantasy owners to find value using him. Stewart’s Dover driver rating is just 71.5 and his average finish at the track is 13th. Fantasy players should wait a week to see if the No. 14 we’re used to returns.
Brian Vickers – Vickers’ fantasy value might fall slightly this week at Dover. He recently turned his statistics around at New Hampshire, and rewarded fantasy owners that put their faith in him with a top-10 last week. We’re still waiting to see that same turn for the better at Dover, though. Vickers has scored just one top-5 at the 1-mile oval despite 16 tries. His top-10 tally currently sits at just two with the last one coming back in 2011. He finished last here earlier this season, which should give fantasy owners pause. Monitor his speed in practice and qualifying, but also beware that he can be prone to trouble at this particular track. For those reasons the No. 55 might be a less than optimal choice this week.
Greg Biffle – After two Chase races Biffle stands in one of the points positions set to be dropped from contention after this week’s race. The Roush Fenway Racing driver has struggled since scoring back-to-back 10th-place finishes at Bristol and Atlanta, but fantasy owners should note that he stands a healthy chance of doing enough to advance this week. Biffle’s Dover record is a good one. His driver rating from the last 19 races here is 98.9. In 24 Dover races his average finish is 13.4, and he has accumulated two wins and 11 top-10s in that time. Of the drivers in danger of falling out of the first Chase round, Biffle could offer fantasy players a relatively safe play for points this week.
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Radune was named the 2012 Racing Writer of the Year by the Fantasy Sports Writers Association. Get a FREE RotoWire 10-day trial (no credit card required) at RotoWire.com.
