NASCAR Sprint Cup drivers and teams will be turning left and right this week at Sonoma Raceway, the first visit to a roadcourse this season. This weekend typically sees some roadcourse specialists try to make a splash in the series, but every year the regular drivers have been getting better at the unique challenge this course presents.
Martin Truex Jr. claimed last year’s victory here, leading 51 of the 110 laps. Among active drivers, however, Jeff Gordon boasts the most wins at five. From the 25 races held at the track just twice has a driver started outside of the top 20 to win. Juan Pablo Montoya was one of those drivers. He started 32nd in 2007, but won in an unprecedented charge to the front. Fourteen of the 25 races have been won by drivers starting inside the top five, and 18 have been won from the top 10 starters. Qualifying is important here, and lead changes can sometimes be infrequent, meaning track position is key.
Marcos Ambrose – When it comes to the roadcourse races, there is every reason in the world to look toward Ambrose. The former Australian Super Touring Car driver knows how to throw a heavy chassis around left and right turns faster than most any other driver. His driver rating at Sonoma from just six races is 108, which is best in the series. Though he hasn’t won there yet, he was in a commanding position on multiple occasions, and it appears as though it is just a matter of time. His average finish at the track is 11.8, with just one finish outside of the top 10. A victory this weekend could get Ambrose into this year’s Chase, which is a big carrot for a team that has had its share of problems thus far.
Jeff Gordon – When looking back through Sonoma statistics, one can never forget about Gordon. His 21 races at the track have given him five victories, 13 top-5s, and 17 top-10s. His average finish in this span is incredible at 8.2, and is only bettered by his average start of 7.5. The series veteran has not visited Victory Lane here since 2006, but he also hasn’t finished outside of the top 10 since 2005. He has a win already in 2014, and another win this weekend would allow him to rest even easier as the Chase for the Championship draws near. Fantasy players should not fear selecting the veteran this weekend, and this could be the year he etches his sixth win at the track.
Tony Stewart – One of the best regulars on the Sprint Cup circuit on a roadcourse is Stewart. He worked hard early in his career to learn Sonoma in particular, and his talents have granted him one of the best records in the series at the track. His average Sonoma finish from 15 career races is 12th, and he picked up two wins, five top-5s, and nine top-10s along the way. Looking at the last nine years of history at Sonoma, Stewart earned a driver rating of 102.4. He has yet to notch a victory this season, and his two Sonoma wins suggest he has a good shot at breaking that duck this weekend. Stewart should make a solid fantasy option.
Clint Bowyer – Bowyer’s Sonoma record is quite a good one. His average finish at the track of 9.1 includes a win, five top-5s, and six top-10s from eight tries. Just once in that time did he fail to finish on the lead lap. Bowyer has had some bad luck this season, but Sonoma could present an opportunity for him to get the monkey off of his back to win. His Sonoma driver rating of 95.2 is among the best in the series, which could offer great value for fantasy rosters. Two top-10 finishes in the last three races also give the team a bit of momentum heading into a race where they could make a big impact, making them one of the better fantasy selections.
Jimmie Johnson – Johnson is rapidly challenging Kevin Harvick for the honor of being the strongest competitor on the circuit. His three wins are top in the series, and his consistency has only gotten better as the season has progressed. At Sonoma, Johnson boasts a better record than Harvick, too. He has a victory here, in addition to four top-5s and seven top-10s with an average result of 13.4. In comparison, Harvick has not scored a Sonoma win, and claims an average finish of 15.6. Even though he is a regular in the series, Johnson is one of the better racers on roadcourses, and his consistency at these types of tracks is one of the best of active drivers, roadcourse specialists or not.
A.J. Allmendinger – Though Allmendinger has plenty of roadcourse experience he hasn’t been able to translate that history to success in Sonoma. The former open-wheel racer carries a driver rating of 77.6 at the track, and has two top-10 finishes from five starts. This driver certainly has the pedigree to be a top racer on these types of tracks, but he hasn’t been able to make his impression last in Sonoma yet. His average finish from five career Sonoma efforts is 15.8 with one finish off of the lead lap. Fantasy owners willing to gamble on Allmendinger living up to his roadcourse potential this weekend should give him the shot, but a more conservative roster would select a different driver.
Matt Kenseth – Kenseth may have one of the most disappointing Sonoma resumes of any active driver. In his 14 career races at the winding circuit Kenseth can only lay claim to one top-10 finish. His average finish at the circuit is 20.7, and his average start is 18.4. Kenseth simply has not found success at this track. His driver rating from the last nine years is 76.3, which is dismal for one of the better drivers in the series. While he has a tendency to race better than he qualifies, Kenseth won’t get the same opportunity to do that at Sonoma, where passing can come at a premium. Kenseth may be a driver to avoid at this track.
Paul Menard – Despite Menard’s great run at Michigan last weekend, there is reason to believe he won’t be as strong this week in California. The Richard Childress Racing driver has six Sonoma starts, and brings an average finish of 21.3 to the table. Despite finishing off of the lead lap just once in those six tries, he has yet to score a top-10 result. He has racked up three top-10 finishes in the last four races, and he continues to extend his run of good form deeper and deeper into the season. A realistic outcome for him at Sonoma, though, would be to walk away with a top-20 result while anything better could be deemed better-than-expected.
Dale Earnhardt Jr. – Earnhardt is enjoying a successful 2014 season, and can even relax a bit as the Chase approaches. As we head to Sonoma, though, Earnhardt’s fantasy value takes a dip. His 14 starts at the track have yet to produce a top-10 finish. He has only led nine laps in that span, and has an average finish of 21.5. His best result there is 11th, which he has done three times. Last year’s race gave him a 12th-place finish. Simply put, there are better options for fantasy rosters out there this week. Earnhardt is not a roadcourse specialist, and hasn’t posted the finishes that would lead us to believe he is one of the better series regulars at Sonoma. For those reasons Earnhardt presents a risky play this week.
Boris Said – Though Said shouldn’t really be considered a long-shot at Sonoma, he is not a regular on the Sprint Cup circuit and could offer some valuable points for fantasy rosters this weekend. The roadcourse specialist regularly participates in the Sonoma and Watkins Glen rounds of the championship, and he’ll be back in California again this weekend. His five top-10 finishes at this track in Sprint Cup competition give him an average finish of 20.6 from 14 starts. His last three efforts here haven’t resulted in top-15 finishes, but his upside at the track could be greater than most lower-ranked regulars. Said will make a valuable fantasy option in the deeper roster spots for owners willing to take a small risk.
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Radune was named the 2012 Racing Writer of the Year by the Fantasy Sports Writers Association. Get a FREE RotoWire 10-day trial (no credit card required) at RotoWire.com.
