The NASCAR Sprint Cup Series returns to the high banks of Talladega Superspeedway this Sunday for the Aaron’s 499, the first restrictor-plate race since the season’s opener.
Talladega’s 33-degree banking is a bit steeper than Daytona, and the wider track offers greater opportunity for three-wide running. That extra space gives drivers a bit more confidence, which has led to “the big one” in the past, an accident that can take out a good number of cars, making this race particularly challenging for fantasy players.
In the 89 prior races at the track winners have started as deep in the field as 36th. David Ragan won last year’s edition after starting 19th, while David Gilliland finished runner-up and started 31st. Only 57% of past winners started in the top-5, and though a majority of wins have come from the top 10 starting positions, drivers feel they can win from just about anywhere. The key for fantasy players is to pay attention to how cars perform in the draft and who is able to stay out front of the pack in practice. Interestingly, Toyota has only won here twice, versus 39 for Chevrolet, and 20 victories for Ford.
Qualifying will be exceptionally interesting as this will be the first race where NASCAR’s new “group” format will be tested at a restrictor-plate track. The format will consist of three rounds with the top 24 and 12 cars respectively advancing to fight for pole position. Since qualifying isn’t as important at Talladega we expect to see many different strategies play out.
Dale Earnhardt Jr. – After getting off to one of the best seasons of his career, Earnhardt has shown little sign of trailing off. He was fighting at the front of Saturday’s Toyota Owners 400, and comes to the second restrictor-plate race of the season as the reigning Daytona 500 champion. Earnhardt returned to his perch above the rest in the draft at Daytona, and should be a contender again at Talladega, a place where he scored four consecutive victories between 2001 and 2003. His career average finish at the track is 14.6 after 28 tries. Steady gains have been made by this driver and team combination, and Talladega would be a great opportunity for fantasy players to leverage them.
Brad Keselowski – One of the better restrictor-plate drivers of the recent contests has been Keselowski. He has two Talladega wins to his credit, along with an average finish at the track of 14.2 from 10 races. He finished third in February’s Daytona 500 and second in the Sprint Unlimited race the week before. Penske Racing has offered stiff competition this season, is on top of the changes to qualifying, and should continue to be among the top competitors on a weekly basis. His teammate notched his second victory of the year last week, and Keselowski will be anxious to claim another for himself. Fantasy players should certainly consider Keselowski this week as a result, and possibly even nominate him as captain.
Jeff Gordon – The scent of victory has been lingering in Gordon’s helmet through the early portion of this season. The veteran driver has been close enough to taste the checkered flag multiple times, but has yet to seal the deal. Talladega could be a place that changes for the No. 24. Gordon has the most wins at this track of any other active driver at six, along with 15 top-5s, and 19 top-10s from his 42 race career here. He is currently atop the points standings, finishing outside of the top 10 just twice and not yet finishing worse than 13th. Both Gordon and teammate Jimmie Johnson appear likely to notch a win shortly needing just need a few breaks to fall their way. Gordon’s restrictor-plate history and current momentum make him an ideal fantasy candidate.
Greg Biffle - The restrictor-plate racing pedigree hasn’t quite shown itself in Biffle yet. His name is rarely among those mentioned as a favorite when the series arrives at Talladega or Daytona, and his results indicate why. His average Talladega finish is 19.5 in 22 tries with a best finish of fourth in 2009. He finished eighth in this season’s Daytona 500 and 12th in his qualifying duel. His only restrictor-plate win came at Daytona in 2004, but more recently a top-10 finish is about as much as fantasy owners could hope for at these tracks. Biffle could be a choice to hedge some riskier fantasy options this week, but probably should not be considered among the top three.
David Ragan – Fantasy rosters searching for a bargain this week may want to look Ragan’s direction. The former Talladega winner has four top-10s and two top-5s in his last five races at the track. He didn’t finish off of the lead lap in any of those races, and accumulated an average finish of 9.2 in the time. In his 14 total Talladega races that finishing average only dips to 14.2, and includes seven top-10 finishes. He has only failed to finish twice in his whole career here, making the whole package even better. Ragan may not be a driver fantasy players have been keeping tabs on this season, and this week could pay off for those who have.
Denny Hamlin – Hamlin has raced at Talladega 16 times in the Sprint Cup scoring three top-5s and five top-10s. In his last five Talladega races Hamlin took away a lone top-10 and an average result of 23.4. Fans will remember that he won both the Sprint Unlimited and his qualifying duel in Daytona to start the season. He backed up those wins with a second-place result in the 500, but has struggled to regain that form since. Richmond’s 22nd-place finish marked his fourth consecutive finish outside of the top 10 after sitting out the Auto Club 400 with a vision issue. This year’s Daytona results make him an interesting fantasy option this week, but his races since make him less of a sure thing.
Kurt Busch – Recent Talladega history would suggest Busch may not be a wise choice this week. In his last five races at the track Busch has managed just two finishes and only one of those on the lead lap. His average result in that time is 28.6 with an average starting position not much better at 27.8. The team has just two top finishes this season, one being their Martinsville win, the other a third-place run at Auto Club Speedway. Outside of those results Busch’s best finish this season is 21st in the Daytona 500. Busch could very well run at the front this week, but recent statistics and the inconsistent nature his 2014 so far would cause us to choose a more reliable option.
Kasey Kahne – Strong practice showings in Richmond led to a pretty decent race from Kahne versus what we’ve seen so far in 2014. He ran near the front most of the distance, but faded to 14th at the finish. What we don’t yet know is whether Kahne will show up again this week, or be a shadow as he has for much of the season to date. His two top-10 finishes at Las Vegas and Bristol haven’t pushed him any further up the points than 22nd, and he failed to finish inside the top 30 in both Talladega races in 2013. He claims three top-5s and four top-10s from 20 Talladega starts, but hasn’t had a top finish here since the spring race of 2012. Kahne needs to show more consistency and speed to become a contender for fantasy rosters.
A.J. Allmendinger – Allmendinger has been a valuable fantasy option for many races this season, but Talladega could be a mulligan track for the former IndyCar driver. He holds the dubious distinction (along with J.J. Yeley) of being the active driver with the most Talladega starts without a top-10 finish at eight. His average finish in that span is 25.8 with just three-lead-lap runs. Fresh off a top-10 run in Richmond the JTG Daugherty driver is certainly aiming for another top-10 finish, but those have been hard to come by for Allmendinger at this particular circuit. Fantasy owners should not be afraid to consider Allmendinger most weeks, but this is one where some apprehension should arise.
Martin Truex Jr. – After qualifying second fastest and then finishing eighth in his Daytona qualifying duel, much was expected of Truex in the Daytona 500. The team packed up early and was credited with the last finishing position, though. While fantasy owners have waited for a turnaround, the change simply hasn’t come. A solid run at Richmond might be the boost of confidence this team needs to build this week in Talladega, though. Furniture Row Racing typically unloads a strong restrictor-plate package, and Truex should be able to make good use of the speed. For fantasy owners willing to take a gamble, this might be the week to look in the direction of the No. 78.
Follow @cjradune on Twitter.
Radune was named the 2012 Racing Writer of the Year by the Fantasy Sports Writers Association.
Get a FREE RotoWire 10-day trial (no credit card required) at RotoWire.com.
