Wilner column: USC juggernaut is gone, won't return any time soon

Published Oct. 9, 2010 10:36 a.m. ET

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Quick tip for anyone planning to watch the Stanford-USC game this afternoon: Disregard everything you've seen, heard or come to expect from the Trojans over the years.

This is not the same program that dominated the Pac-10 for almost a decade, overwhelming opponents with its talent, depth and aura.

But because of NCAA sanctions, it's the program we're going to see for the next five or six years.

Instead of being a heavy favorite today at Stanford Stadium, the Trojans are a 9 1/2-point underdogs.

Instead of a reserved spot at the top of the standings, the Trojans will struggle to finish in the middle of the Pac.

Instead of setting the standard for quality depth, the Trojans are so thin in spots that they don't tackle in practice for fear of injury.

The troubles are largely the result of penalties tied to rules violations committed by former star Reggie Bush. In June, the NCAA slapped USC with a two-year bowl ban and three years of crippling scholarship reductions.

The Trojans had already lost four underclassmen to the NFL draft. They released two recruits from letters of intent -- including the No. 1 prospect in the nation, offensive tackle Seantrel Henderson -- and had five veterans transfer.

The result is a team with "69 or 70" scholarship players, coach Lane Kiffin said. That's far below the NCAA maximum of 85.

"It's good practice for us," Kiffin added, "because the sanctions say we have to be at 75 for a three-year period."

But the effects will last far beyond three years.

Once the Trojans are out of scholarship prison, it will take time for Kiffin to reload the roster and for the recruits to become impact players.

"We're looking at a minimum four years from now," Kiffin said when asked to project a recovery. "And that's if we can rebuild (the first year) after sanctions, which may not be case.

"So we're looking at five years, maybe six, until we get a full roster."

It has been a long time since USC was as big an underdog as it is today -- a dozen years, to be exact.

The Trojans were a 13-point underdog when they went to Florida State early in the 1998 season (before Pete Carroll turned USC into a dynasty). They lost by 20.

What would a victory today mean for No. 16 Stanford? With a bye next week and then a visit from lowly Washington State, the Cardinal would be 6-1 (3-1 in league play) entering an Oct. 30 trip to Washington -- the start of a difficult stretch run.

What would a loss to UCLA today mean for Cal? That the Bears (2-2, 0-1) would have to scramble to reach the six-victory mark needed for postseason eligibility. They would have to beat either USC (road), Oregon State (road), Stanford or No. 3 Oregon to make the bowl math work.

Pac-12 athletics directors met in San Francisco this week to discuss the three monumental issues facing the expanded conference: Splitting the league into six-team divisions for football, staging a football championship game and changing the revenue distribution model.

Asked if he could assure fans of the California schools that the four teams would play each other every year, commissioner Larry Scott said: "I cannot. The only assurance I can give is that the traditional rivals will play each other every year under any format."

The league's presidents and chancellors will resolve the issues when they meet Oct. 21 in San Francisco.