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For months I've been of the belief that Nick Saban's Alabama juggernaut is due for a rare off-year in 2015. (And by off-year, I mean 10-2). Yes, the Tide seemingly reload at will. But between their uncertainty at quarterback; the loss of not only Heisman finalist Amari Cooper but their top three receivers; and an underwhelming returning secondary, this is easily Saban's least heralded team in years.
But then Bruce Feldman and I conducted our mock draft this week of our 2015 College Football Playoff dream teams, where I found myself unexpectedly picking four likely Crimson Tide standouts -- defensive tackle A'Shawn Robinson, offensive tackle Cam Robinson, freshman receiver Calvin Ridley and punter J.K. Scott. Meanwhile, Bruce took linebacker Reggie Ragland and tried to take center Ryan Kelly before I overruled him (he wanted to list Kelly as a guard). And two other 'Bama players, running back Derrick Henry and tight end O.J. Howard, barely missed my cut.
All told, that's eight Alabama players with cases to be made for a 50-player field, even more than defending national champ Ohio State's seven selections. Which makes me wonder: Are we actually underrating Saban's team for once?
On the one hand, it's not surprising the Tide are so well represented on a list of national standouts given they sign the nation's No. 1 recruiting class every year. But to have that high a number seems to indicate that 'Bama isn't rebuilding at nearly the extent I thought. While it had seven players drafted off last season's College Football Playoff semifinal squad, that's actually the fewest it's had to replace in four years. It's also the first time since 2009 that it lost only one first-rounder (Cooper).
So really, Saban's 2015 squad -- despite technically returning just nine starters -- is fairly experienced. Case in point, three of those aforementioned top 50-caliber players -- Henry, Scott and Howard -- don't count toward that returning starter number despite playing key roles over the past two years.
And now, allow me to offer some necessary caveats. First of all, 50 players is a very small slice of the nation's returning talent. If we stretched it to the top 100, 150 or 200, we may find that several other schools -- including a few in the SEC West -- boast a similar share. Furthermore, having the most talented team in a conference holds no guarantee of producing the best team. Ask USC.
Also, Alabama plays a particularly daunting schedule this fall. Many of its recent championship teams benefited from a favorable divisional crossover draw. This year, though, it visits Georgia. And two of its last three games are on the road against Mississippi State and Auburn.
But most of all, the quarterback question truly will make or break these Crimson Tide, no matter the supporting cast. Mind you, Alabama found itself in much the same situation last summer only to watch Blake Sims capably lead it to 12 wins. Jake Coker could well do the same, but the fact he couldn't beat out Sims last year elicits some nervousness. Nor will he have the luxury Sims did of throwing to a transcendent receiver like Cooper.
All in all, this is easily the most difficult Alabama team to forecast since before Saban began his current run of three SEC and national championships in six seasons. Just don't call it a rebuilding year. If you put any stock into our draft evaluation abilities, then the Tide appear to be just as loaded as ever.
Stewart Mandel is a senior college sports columnist for FOXSports.com. He covered college football and basketball for 15 years at Sports Illustrated. You can follow him on Twitter @slmandel. Send emails and Mailbag questions to Stewart.Mandel@fox.com.
