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Week 6 picks: Alabama, Oklahoma, Auburn and others on upset alert
Editor's note: Every Thursday during the season, Bruce Feldman and Stewart Mandel will present their picks for the week.
Below are Week 6's selections (all times ET). Enjoy.
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FLORIDA (+2.5) at TENNESSEE (Noon, SEC Network)
Mandel: I’m going to disagree with colleague and Vols fan Clay Travis. Tennessee is not going to win by double-digits because Tennessee, while improved, is still not very good. Neither is Florida, but I don’t believe the Gators’ defense is as bad as it looked against Alabama. Both quarterbacks, Justin Worley and Jeff Driskel, will struggle, but Florida has had some success running the ball. The Vols, on the other hand, rank 109th on the ground (3.36 yards per carry). Florida 26, Tennessee 21.
Feldman: I've flip-flopped on this game. I'm still tempted to believe that Driskel will get settled in and play better for UF, but after seeing how tough UT played last week at Georgia I have more confidence now in Worley than I do in Driskel, especially with the game being in Knoxville. Tennessee 28, Florida 27.
No. 20 OHIO STATE (-7.5) at MARYLAND (Noon, ABC)
Mandel: Terps coach Randy Edsall isn’t saying anything about quarterback C.J. Brown’s wrist, which he injured last week against Indiana. They’ll need him healthy to have a shot, as Terps receivers Stefon Diggs and Deon Long could burst free against the Buckeyes’ secondary. Ohio State is starting to find its offensive identity, and guys like QB J.T. Barrett, RB Ezekiel Elliot and WR Michael Thomas will deliver enough big plays to survive a close call. Ohio State 30, Maryland 24.
Feldman: The Terps’ terrific receivers will be a problem for OSU's revamped secondary, but ultimately I think Barrett and all the speed he has at his disposal will be a little too much for Maryland. Ohio State 35, Maryland 32.
No. 6 TEXAS A&M (+2) at No. 12 MISSISSIPPI STATE (Noon, ESPN)
Mandel: In a tough game to call, I’m invoking Bruce’s “Body Blow” Theory. Coming off a taxing win in which the Aggies’ defense dealt with Arkansas’ physical rushing attack right up into overtime, it’s asking a lot of them to turn around and face Dak Prescott, Josh Robinson and the Bulldogs. They’re averaging 270.8 yards on the ground. Mind you, Kenny Hill could well light up a Mississippi State D allowing 7.6 yards per attempt, but the Bulldogs survive this shootout. Mississippi State 42, Texas A&M 38.
Feldman: The Bulldogs defense is good. They have athletes at all levels, but I think the Aggies offense (No. 1 in the nation in most offensive points per drive at 3.94) is a lot more potent than anything they've seen. Also, the one-game suspension of center Dillon Day will hobble the MSU offense a little against another explosive offense. Texas A&M 30, Miss. State 24.
No. 3 ALABAMA (-6) at No. 11 OLE MISS (3:30, CBS)
Mandel: The biggest week in recent Ole Miss history could prove a distracting one as well. I find it hard to believe Bo Wallace and the Rebels will come out sharp in this one. Mind you, I’d be even more surprised if Amari Cooper and the Tide put up another six touchdowns and 600-plus yards. Ole Miss’ defense is too talented not to put up some resistance. But Nick Saban’s teams generally don’t have much problem winning ugly. The running game could lift ‘Bama in this one. Alabama 27, Ole Miss 14.
Feldman: As well as Blake Sims has been playing the Rebels have enough difference-makers on their D to challenge the Tide. The Rebels are holding opposing QBs to the lowest passer rating in the country at 74.2, but my hunch is the Bama running attack will be the difference here. I suspect the Rebels will give Saban's team all it can handle for four quarters. Alabama 24, Ole Miss 20.
No. 4 OKLAHOMA (-5) at No. 25 TCU (3:30, FOX)
Mandel: This will be Oklahoma’s toughest game between now and its Nov. 8 Baylor showdown. Gary Patterson’s defense is holding opponents to 2.1 yards per rushing attempt, third-best nationally, and is not going to let Sooners freshman RB Samaje Perine do what he did against West Virginia. But TCU’s new-and-improved Air Raid-style offense is not going to faze the Sooners, who see a version of it virtually every week. Oklahoma prevails in a close one. Oklahoma 21, TCU 17.
Feldman: Gary Patterson has another stout defense. The Horned Frogs lead all Power 5 conference teams in fewest offensive points per drive allowed at 0.31 and in fewest yards per play allowed at 3.08, but the Sooners, with their sturdy O-line and improved weapons, led by budding star Perine, will be a much bigger test than they've faced before. OU's defense also will be able to slow down the improved Horned Frogs attack that comes in No. 15 in the nation in total offense. Another intriguing stat line: While Patterson is 4-4 all-time at home against Top 25 teams, he's lost the last four times. Oklahoma 24, TCU 14.
No. 14 STANFORD (-2) at No. 9 NOTRE DAME (3:30, NBC)
Mandel: This one’s truly tough to call. Stanford’s defense has been otherworldly so far, allowing 19 points in four games. Combined. Everett Golson and the Irish will have to be patient and poised, because big plays will be at a premium. But the Cardinal offense has been downright putrid at times, particularly in the red zone, and this road game -- coming on the heels of a trip to Washington -- hardly seems like an ideal week to flip the script. Notre Dame grinds this one out. Notre Dame 20, Stanford 16.
Feldman: David Shaw's receiving tandem of Ty Montgomery and Devon Cajuste is more dangerous than what Notre Dame has, but I have more faith in the way Golson is playing now than I do Kevin Hogan, although the Cardinal QB has proven he can win in some tough road environments, but I'll play the hunch that ND comes through. Notre Dame 20, Stanford 13.
No. 15 LSU (+8) at No. 5 AUBURN (7, ESPN)
Mandel: LSU’s touted freshman phenom Leonard Fournette quietly notched his first 100-yard game last week against New Mexico State. He and dynamic new starting QB Brandon Harris could make LSU tougher to defend. But Auburn has played well on defense this season. It’s not the same erratic unit as in 2013. LSU, on the other hand, does not appear to have its typically dazzling defensive front, which seems almost a requirement to slow down a Gus Malzahn-coached offense. Auburn 34, LSU 20.
Feldman: New starting QB Brandon Harris has the kind of arm to give defenses problems and I expect the Tigers’ young skill guys to step up with him taking over the offense. The bad news for Les Miles is that his D, which got mauled by Miss. State at home two weeks ago, now faces an even more dynamic running game --on the road. Auburn 30, LSU 27.
No. 19 NEBRASKA (+7.5) at No. 10 MICHIGAN STATE (8, ABC)
Mandel: Is it just me or has the aura surrounding Huskers football completely changed ever since Bo Pelini broke out that cat? Nebraska looks more confident and competent, particularly on defense. But it also hasn’t eradicated the turnovers and busted coverages that plagued recent teams. That doesn’t bode well against the Spartans, whose quarterback, Connor Cook, has emerged as one of the nation’s most efficient passers. He out-duels Huskers star Ameer Abdullah. Michigan State 30, Nebraska 27.
Feldman: The Huskers offense has moved the ball very well against the Spartans the past few years. Star RB Abdullah has had back-to-back 100-yard games against MSU (he also has the longest active streak in the country, by a wide margin, of games with at least 100 yards from scrimmage at 18), but I think the Spartans D will keep him from running wild and Cook will be a little too much for the visiting Huskers in a night game on the road. Michigan State 24, Nebraska 14.
UTAH (+13) at No. 8 UCLA (10:30, ESPN)
Mandel: UCLA is coming off a resounding 62-27 road rout of Arizona State and playing at home against a Utah team that blew a 21-0 lead to lose to Washington State last week. You know what that means – the Bruins won’t make this one easy on themselves. I fully expect a few turnovers, ill-timed penalties and general sloppiness. But as long as Brett Hundley’s on the field, UCLA has a distinct advantage over a Utah team that can’t seem to get over the hump. UCLA 27, Utah 23.
Feldman: The Utes are coming off a crushing loss at home to Wazzu after leading 21-0. I don't like their chances to bounce back against Hundley and a team with even more talent on D, and the game is on the road. UCLA 34, Utah 17.
UPSET SPECIAL
LOUISVILLE (-2.5) at SYRACUSE (Friday, 7, ESPN)
Mandel: Strange things happen at the Carrier Dome on Friday night, though frankly this result would not be that strange. Louisville is playing its second game without injured quarterback Will Gardner. The Cardinals’ offense struggled under freshman backup Reggie Bonnafon in a 20-10 win over Wake Forest last week. Syracuse creates a few turnovers and bounces back from last week’s Notre Dame loss. Syracuse 23, Louisville 21.
HAWAII (+6.5) at RICE (7, AMSN)
Feldman: Norm Chow's team is 1-3 but all three losses were against teams better than the Owls, and they all were by single digits. Rice's defense has been really suspect and even though this one is in Houston, I'm going with UH. Hawaii 23, Rice 21.
ARIZONA (+23) at No. 2 OREGON (Thursday, 10:30, ESPN)
Mandel: The only thing scarier than playing a Thursday night game at Autzen Stadium is going there with a mediocre defense and the Ducks coming off a bye week. QB Anu Solomon and the undefeated Wildcats may have some success early, but Oregon is allowing five points per game after halftime. Marcus Mariota and the Ducks offense should run away with early in the third quarter so the fans that have to work Friday can still get home at a decent hour. Oregon 52, Arizona 24.
Feldman: Expect the Ducks to get some revenge for Arizona blasting UO last season. Mariota is healthy and playing better than any QB in the country. His O-line is still a little shaky (witness their game against WSU) but they're a crisper team at Autzen. Redshirt freshman Solomon has been very good for Zona (13 TDs, three INTs), but playing at Oregon is a much bigger road challenge than his only other road trip -- at UTSA. Oregon 49, Arizona 34.
Mandel season (through Week 5): 38-18 straight-up, 30-26 vs. spread
Feldman season (through Week 5): 39-16, 25-30 vs. spread
