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Week 14 picks: Iowa finally folds; should we worry about Clemson, too?
Conference championships are up for grabs in Week 14, and for some teams, winning one may bring the chance to play for the national crown.
Each Thursday, Stewart Mandel, Bruce Feldman, Joel Klatt and Jim Ross will make the calls on who'll win the weekend's most intriguing matchups.
Perhaps no game this weekend features stakes as distinct as the Big Ten championship. The winner of No. 4 Iowa vs. No. 5 Michigan State seems destined for the College Football Playoff.
While second-ranked Alabama looks like a heavy favorite vs. the slumping No. 18 Florida Gators, the Crimson Tide will need a W in the SEC title game to secure their playoff spot. Despite its No. 1 rank, there's plenty of chatter about Clemson being upset by No. 10 North Carolina. Would a win be enough to vault the Tar Heels into the top four?
Meanwhile, seventh-ranked Stanford isn't giving up on reaching the playoff field either, as the Cardinal look to take home the Pac-12 championship vs. No. 20 USC — and hope one of the favorites above falters.
In addition to our straight-up picks, Mandel and Feldman will dive a little deeper into the games with their picks against the spread.
And if you're looking for more games, you can find predictions for every Division I FBS game for the coming week here, courtesy of WhatIfSports.
Without further ado, here are this week's picks:
PICKS AGAINST THE SPREAD
BOWLING GREEN (-12) vs. NORTHERN ILLINOIS — MAC championship game
Mandel: NIU has pulled off some miracles in this game before, but beating high-scoring BG with a fill-in freshman quarterback (Tommy Fiedler) seems highly improbable. Bowling Green 34, NIU 20
Feldman: I think Dino Babers' offense is a little too explosive for NIU to hang with. Bowling Green 38, NIU 34
The result: Bowling Green 34, NIU 14
TEMPLE (+6) at HOUSTON — AAC championship game
Mandel: Temple’s defense keeps it in any game, even against Houston star Greg Ward Jr., but the Cougars’ own stout rushing defense will shut down the Owls. Houston 30, Temple 17
Feldman: The Owls have a terrific D, but Tom Herman has good firepower, home-field advantage and nice big-game experience. Houston 24, Temple 21
SOUTHERN MISS (+7.5) at WESTERN KENTUCKY — C-USA championship game
Mandel: Southern Miss’ resurgence has not gone unnoticed, but Brandon Doughty-led WKU has been building toward this title since last year’s Marshall game. Western Kentucky 43, Southern Miss 27
Feldman: Western is averaging more than 50 in its past four games, while Southern Miss is averaging around 60 in its past three. I like Brandon Doughty in a shootout. Western Kentucky 49, Southern Miss 38
TEXAS (+20.5) at BAYLOR
Mandel: Baylor’s offense is not the same with third-string QB Chris Johnson at the helm, but it should still produce plenty to run away from the offensively limited Longhorns. Baylor 38, Texas 27
Feldman: Texas is too young and too one-dimensional to keep up with Baylor in Waco. Baylor 49, Texas 20
ALABAMA (-17.5) vs. FLORIDA — SEC championship game
Mandel: Florida needs to hope ’Bama DC Kirby Smart got so tied up lining up the Georgia job he forgot to install the game plan. Otherwise the Gators might not score. Alabama 24, Florida 7
Feldman: The Gators' offense has been dismal against a lot of defenses nowhere near as good as 'Bama’s. Alabama 27, Florida 3
WEST VIRGINIA (-6.5) at KANSAS STATE
Mandel: In a weird twist, 5-6 K-State is no longer playing for a bowl berth because it can get one win or lose. Still, Bill Snyder’s team comes out and pulls off the upset. Kansas State 30, West Virginia 27
Feldman: The Mountaineers' run game has been cranked up, and I think WVU’s experienced LBs will be able to cope with the patient K-State offensive scheme. West Virginia 27, Kansas State 17
AIR FORCE (+4.5) at SAN DIEGO STATE — MWC championship game
Mandel: The Aztecs will miss injured QB Maxwell Smith, but they went 8-0 in the Mountain West behind a strong defense and rushing attack. That continues. San Diego State 19, Air Force 14
Feldman: The Aztecs have more speed and the MWC's best run defense by far (2.82 yards per carry), which should be up to the test against Troy Calhoun’s intricate system. San Diego State 23, Air Force 17
STANFORD (-4.5) vs. USC — Pac-12 championship game
Mandel: Neither defense is going to slow down the other’s quarterback, but RB Christian McCaffrey makes Stanford a more complete team. The Cardinal hoist a trophy. Stanford 47, USC 34
Feldman: It’s tough to beat a good team twice in one season. I also wonder how much facing Notre Dame last week and winning at the last second took out of the Cardinal. USC 35, Stanford 27
IOWA (+3.5) vs. MICHIGAN STATE — Big Ten championship game (8:17 p.m. ET on FOX)
Mandel: Michigan State goes conservative on offense and relies on its more talented defense to put the clamps on Iowa’s normally productive rushing attack. Michigan State 24, Iowa 20
Feldman: Mark Dantonio’s team is stout enough to handle a terrific Iowa O-line, and I like MSU’s big-game experience to help the Spartans win a close one. Michigan State 17, Iowa 10
CLEMSON (-5) vs. NORTH CAROLINA — ACC championship game
Mandel: It seems too boring and predictable for Clemson to win and make the committee’s job easy, but it’s hard to pick against steady Deshaun Watson. Clemson 31, North Carolina 26
Feldman: Expect Elijah Hood to do a lot of damage, but Deshaun Watson rallies the Tigers late to keep Clemson’s unbeaten season alive. Clemson 23, North Carolina 21
SEASON RESULTS:
Mandel: 97-57 (including upset picks)
Feldman: 98-57 (including upset picks)
Klatt: 80-46 (minus games he called on FOX or FS1)
Ross: 86-55
PREVIOUS PICKS
Week 13 / Week 12 / Week 11 / Week 10 / Week 9 / Week 8 / Week 7 / Week 6 / Week 5 / Week 4 / Week 3 / Week 2 / Week 1
