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Tennessee Volunteers: 3 Reasons Not to Buy into the Hype
Tennessee football is back to being a top-10 program, but they’re not an actual threat to the College Football Playoff.
After snatching victory from the jaws of defeat to open the season against Appalachian State, Tennessee has continued to rise up the rankings in 2016. They’ve now climbed to #9 in both the Coach’s and AP Poll.
It has taken the aforementioned overtime win and two dramatic comebacks against division rivals in Georgia and Florida, but Tennessee has made it to the top 10. While many are feeling great on Rocky Top, there are glaring weaknesses that cannot be ignored. I don’t relish in being the guy to point them out, but I also don’t mind.
I could of course be wrong. While I correctly projected LSU as being a bust, I also thought Kentucky would be a bowl eligible team this year. So I clearly don’t know it all. It appears, though, that I have a knack for spotting frauds.
Tennessee football has consistently grown under Butch Jones, but they’ve also consistently failed to meet expectations. Butch Jones was halfway out the door before the comeback against Appalachian State. While his two wins against Georgia and Florida will keep him safe this year, many Tennessee football fans will end the year disappointed.
Here we’ll take a closer look at Tennessee football to see why they won’t be a playoff threat. Although I’m sure I’ll get plenty of heat from Tennessee football fans, the facts can’t be ignored.
Think I’m wrong? That’s cool. Make sure to let me know in the comments. Did I miss another reason they’ll flop? Be sure to let me know about that too.
Sep 17, 2016; Gainesville, FL, USA; Florida Gators quarterback Luke Del Rio (14) gets helped off the field after an apparent injury during the second half against the North Texas Mean Green at Ben Hill Griffin Stadium. Florida Gators defeated the North Texas Mean Green 32-0. Mandatory Credit: Kim Klement-USA TODAY Sports
3. Injury Luck
Injuries are absolutely a part of football. Players escaping even high school without missing playing time is a rarity. These guys are a mixture of insanely tough and inexplicably fortunate. Usually they work both ways, though.
Tennessee has been extremely fortunate thus far this year. While the Vols have had their own injuries to sort out, they’ve played their two toughest division games against weakened teams. I can’t say I believe that either Georgia or Florida would have coughed up their leads with their star running back and starting quarterback, respectively. It just wouldn’t have gone down the same way.
Before losing Nick Chubb in the Ole Miss game, Georgia was used to grinding out close games. While Ole Miss thoroughly drubbed Georgia, the Bulldogs would have scored much more against Tennessee.
Georgia would have also been able to kill the clock more effectively. Nick Chubb is a handful and could have sealed the game long before any Hail Mary.
Tennessee football also defeated a weakened Florida team. While Luke Del Rio may not be the star Nick Chubb is, he is a difference maker. Although Vanderbilt has built a more respectable defense the last two years, they don’t hold Florida to 13 with Del Rio at quarterback. Tennessee football also doesn’t snap their losing streak if Del Rio plays in their game.
Oct 1, 2016; Athens, GA, USA; Tennessee Volunteers quarterback Joshua Dobbs (11) reacts after scoring a touchdown against the Georgia Bulldogs during the second quarter at Sanford Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Dale Zanine-USA TODAY Sports
2. Joshua Dobbs
Sure Joshua Dobbs is a hero to Tennessee football fans today. His hail mary against Georgia will be in hype videos for decades. He leads a dangerous rushing attack with Alvin Kamara and Jalen Hurd. He’s been starting since Chad Kelly was in diapers. Great.
There will come a game, though, that Dobbs will need to win with his arm. He won’t. While this is Dobbs fourth straight year starting at quarterback, it is also his third straight year with a declining completion percentage.
In addition, the veteran quarterback has as many interceptions in 2016 as he did in the entire 2014 season. None of that screams evolving veteran quarterback. Dobbs needs to complete 65% of his passes in order for Tennessee football to have a legitimate chance at making the playoff. He hasn’t shown he can do it. The Vols can’t ground and pound their way to 12 wins.
The Volunteers still have Alabama on their schedule. Tennessee football will need a Herculean effort from their passing attack. Dobbs will fall short at home after a close half at home.
During the Jones-Dobbs era, Tennessee football has fallen short in shootouts. They’ll get in at least one this year and fall short. Texas A&M can score points in bunches has a veteran quarterback who plays his best on the biggest stages. Tennessee football will also disappoint here.
Speaking of the SEC West…
Oct 1, 2016; Tuscaloosa, AL, USA; Alabama Crimson Tide cheerleaders fly the flags after their team scored against the Kentucky Wildcats at Bryant-Denny Stadium. The Crimson Tide defeated Kentucky 34-6. Mandatory Credit: Marvin Gentry-USA TODAY Sports
1. The SEC West
Fair or not, the perception is that the SEC is decided in the SEC West. Actually it is fair. With Tennessee barely clawing out a victory against Georgia a week after Ole Miss annihilated them, that narrative looks to bare true yet again.
Tennessee football must face Texas A&M and Alabama in the next two weeks.
Dobbs won’t out-duel A&M.
The Vols won’t outrush Alabama.
Tennessee will be sitting at 5-2 after the next two games and Tennessee football fans will again be frustrated. It won’t matter, though. The Vols follow that stretch with possibly the easiest 5 game stretch in SEC football. They’ll win out and the hype train usually reserved for the offseason will be kicked into full gear ahead of the SEC Championship Game.
Then Tennessee will run into the SEC West again. Whether it be Alabama (as expected) or another team, Tennessee will incur their third loss of the season. After that, it will be nothing but thoughts of what could have been this season.
Don’t worry, though.
Just like the last two off seasons, the Tennessee hype train will be cranked up again in no time.
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