Steps forward for UW, steps back for UCLA, Zona
Once again, it’s about that time, the time to look really stupid.
With Pac-10 media day set for next Thursday, it’s time to reveal preseason picks and predictions, the guaranteed sure-fire way to offend most fan bases and prove you know nothing at the same time.
Look, we - the media - are making educated guesses based on the best available information. Who could have known LeGarrette Blount would go Mike Tyson’s Punch Out on opening night last season, setting the stage for LaMichael James’s breakout season? Or that Arizona would kind of, sort of put it together after changing quarterbacks? Or that USC would get worse, not better as the season went along?
With that disclaimer out of the way, here are my thoughts on how the bottom half of the conference race will shake out. You’ll have to wait until Tuesday to see what team I’ve got winning the Pac-10 and making the Rose Bowl.
10. Washington State
It seems crazy given their recent woes, but only USC and
Oregon have made the Rose Bowl since the 2002 season ended with
then-coach Mike Price taking WSU to Pasadena. Since then a perfect
storm – coaching changes, arrests, poor recruiting and the
rising tide of other Pac-10 schools – has sent the Cougars
plummeting to the bottom of the conference.
Paul Wulff has done an admirable job in a difficult spot, but this team just doesn’t have enough. It’s a huge chasm between them and even the No. 9 team in the league.
9. Arizona State
It’s not a surprise Dennis Erickson is bringing his
best offensive weapon to Pasadena next week. Unfortunately,
it’s a kicker. The line remains in shambles, the skill
positions have massive turnover and a three-headed quarterback
battle won’t be settled until camp.
As good as the defense will be, led by standout DT Lawrence Guy and hit machine LB Vontaze Burfict, you have to get on the scoreboard somehow in a Pac-10 with plenty of firepower.
8. UCLA
Rick Neuheisel is in a dangerous situation. After building
three strong recruiting classes and with USC in transition, the
Bruins should be expected to make a major step forward. However,
the schedule, lack of proven playmakers and loss of key defensive
personnel set the stage for a stagnant and frustrating 2010.
Quarterback Kevin Prince has shown flashes, but Neuheisel seems ready to pull him at a moment’s notice. With more uncertainty on the offensive line and a strong likelihood he’ll be handing the ball off to true freshmen Malcolm Jones and Jordan James in hopes of reviving the rushing attack, Prince should just try to minimize mistakes and hope UCLA can win a lot of defensive battles on the leg of All-America kicker Kai Forbath.
That’s not going to happen with high-powered opponents like Texas and Houston in the non-conference. Even worse are trips to Oregon and Cal (the Bruins haven’t won there since 1998 when they were ranked No. 2 in the nation) that set the ceiling at 7-5 at best. I expect 4-8 and some major staff changes, setting the stage for a must-win 2011.
7. Arizona
Coordinator by committee? No. No, no, no, no, no.
What in the world is Mike Stoops thinking? Uncertainty is the last thing he should want, especially after the offense and especially quarterback Nick Foles fell apart late last season, culminating in the 33-0 Holiday Bowl thud.
Same goes for a defense that has massive turnover, though standout end Ricky Elmore is back. After being oh so close to a first ever Rose Bowl berth, it will be a step back for the Wildcats.
6. Washington
The Huskies have Jake Locker at quarterback. They also have
a schedule that does them no favors, with back-to-back games
against Nebraska and revenge-minded USC, then a four-game stretch
that includes Oregon State, Stanford and a trip to Autzen.
Still, with improved depth on defense and a lot of quality skill
players – notably 1,100-yard rusher Chris Polk – to
compliment Locker, Washington will return to a bowl game and should
flirt with eight wins in the regular season.
Part 2 is
HERE