SEC Football: Week 4 Predictions

Published Jun. 30, 2017 6:28 p.m. ET

foxsports

For the first time all season, we had an upset free weekend in the SEC Football world. Alabama, Texas A&M and Georgia all managed to fight off upsets in their first real road trips of the season. Unfortunately, the strong week for the top of the SEC didn’t roll over to my predictions as I suffered another rough week against the spread. However, I promise to get back on track with my predictions ATS starting this week with a great lineup of SEC games.

Sep 17, 2016; Oxford, MS, USA; Mississippi Rebels quarterback Chad Kelly (10) makes a pass during the fourth quarter against the Alabama Crimson Tide at Vaught-Hemingway Stadium. Alabama won 48-43. Mandatory Credit: Matt Bush-USA TODAY Sports

Ole Miss (-7.5) over Georgia, Saturday 11:00 AM (CT), Vaught-Hemingway Stadium

Ole Miss has to be the best 1-2 team in the country. As was the case against Florida State, the Rebels were a couple of plays away from putting Bama away in the first half. But, the Rebels gave up a couple of big plays and turnovers that allowed Bama to storm back. Playoff hopes for the Rebels may be out the window, but they’re still in contention for the SEC West making this a critical game.

Georgia enters with a perfect record, but they haven’t been without there close calls. The Bulldogs narrowly survived their first road trip of the season at Missouri and are now facing an even tougher task this week in Oxford. The good news for Georgia is that Jacob Eason has firmly cemented himself as the quarterback and has looked impressive up to this point. However, the Bulldogs running game with Nick Chubb has struggled mightily since their strong opening weekend. Now the freshman QB faces the difficult prospect of a trip to Oxford with a struggling running game. That sounds a lot like what the Rebels faced last week with Bama. Fortunately for the Rebels, Georgia isn’t the same caliber of team as Bama. Expect Ole Miss to get their season on track behind a strong performance from Chad Kelly. Ole Miss 31, Georgia 21

Sep 17, 2016; Gainesville, FL, USA; Florida Gators quarterback Austin Appleby (12) calls a play against the North Texas Mean Green during the second half at Ben Hill Griffin Stadium. Florida Gators defeated the North Texas Mean Green 32-0. Mandatory Credit: Kim Klement-USA TODAY Sports

Florida (+7) over Tennessee, Saturday 2:30 PM (CT), Neyland Stadium

This game is nearly impossible to predict due to all the injuries sustained by both teams. Florida will be without QB Luke Del Rio and Tennessee has lost a lot on the defensive side of the ball, including star corner Cam Sutton. Both teams have also had underwhelming play from their offensive lines to this point in the season. This could be particularly troublesome for the Gators as Austin Appleby will be making his first start under center for Florida. As big as the loss of Del Rio is for the Gators, they do boast the best unit in the game as the Gators’ defense has been dominant.

Before the season, I was confident that Tennessee would win this game. That’s no longer the case as the Volunteers have continued to look mediocre at best. Josh Dobbs has played erratically and the pressure of ending an 11 game losing streak coupled with facing an elite defense should do nothing to improve his play. Expect the Florida defense to make enough plays to win a low scoring game as the streak will stretch to 12. Florida 17, Tennessee 13

Sep 17, 2016; Baton Rouge, LA, USA; LSU Tigers running back Leonard Fournette (7) scores a touchdown against the Mississippi State Bulldogs during the second quarter of a game at Tiger Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Derick E. Hingle-USA TODAY Sports

LSU (-3.5) over Auburn, Saturday 5:00 PM (CT), Jordan-Hare Stadium

Hot Seat Bowl, anyone? Both teams and coaches face what essentially amounts to a must win game. At this point, every game is critical to the future job status of both Les Miles and Gus Malzahn. For LSU, a loss to Auburn ends any dream of making the playoff and would most likely mean the end of Miles’ tenure with the Tigers. A loss here for Auburn might mean missing out on a bowl game and it’s hard to envision Malzahn getting another chance if that happens with the growing angst on the Plains.

As far as the game goes, I can almost guarantee that it will be ugly. Both teams boast a strong defense, but the offenses are a different story. LSU’s offense has looked better in spurts with Danny Etling at QB, but I’m still not sure he’s the answer to LSU’s problems. I think it’s better to avoid talking about how bad Auburn has been on offense. Ultimately, LSU has more to play for and has the benefit of having Leonard Fournette. That should be enough to win one that will likely only require 20 points to win. LSU 21, Auburn 17

Sep 10, 2016; College Station, TX, USA; Texas A&M Aggies wide receiver Christian Kirk (3) celebrates with wide receiver Ricky Seals-Jones (9) after scoring a touchdown during the second quarter against the Prairie View A&M Panthers at Kyle Field. Mandatory Credit: Troy Taormina-USA TODAY Sports

Texas A&M (-6) over Arkansas, Saturday 8:00 PM (CT), AT&T Stadium

Who would’ve guessed before the season that this would be the game of the week in the SEC for week 4? A&M and Arkansas both enter with undefeated records and impressive wins on their resumes. Both teams now look to be ready to truly challenge for the SEC West title.

The Aggies have had success in the past few season against the Razorbacks and appear to matchup even better with them this season. The Aggies’ defense is more physical now and I’m not sure Myles Garrett can be blocked. The offense hasn’t proven to be as explosive yet, but Trevor Knight has taken care of the ball and it’s only a matter of time before it all clicks with the amount of talent the Aggies boast at receiver. Arkansas road win over TCU was certainly impressive, but I’m still not sure they are talented enough to keep up with the Aggies. Expect the Aggies defense to continue it’s strong start and firmly plant themselves as a real threat to Bama in the West. Texas A&M 30, Arkansas 17

Sep 17, 2016; Columbia, MO, USA; Missouri Tigers quarterback Drew Lock (3) prepares to throw the ball against the Georgia Bulldogs in the first half at Faurot Field. Mandatory Credit: John Rieger-USA TODAY Sports

Elsewhere around the SEC:

Alabama (-43.5) over Kent State

Mississippi State over UMass (+22)

Missouri (-50.5) over Delaware St.

Western Kentucky (-7.5) over Vanderbilt

Kentucky (-2.5) over South Carolina