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We’re not even two weeks removed from the 2009 college
football season and I’m already thinking about next year. And
why not? If you ask me, it’s never too soon. I’m sure
Michigan and Notre Dame fans would agree.
Here’s my “probably way too early, probably way
too premature, probably way too ambitious” look at college
football’s top 10 heading into the 2010 season
10. North Carolina -- The Tar Heels were
inconsistent in ’09, falling to ACC second-tier teams Florida
State and North Carolina State, but beating Virginia Tech on
national TV. In '10, the Tar Heels return 10 of 11 starters from a
defense that ranked 6th in the nation last season. In a college
football headline that was swallowed up by head coaching moves and
NFL early entrants, five of the Tar Heels’ top defenders
announced they’d be returning to school next season.
Returning Stars: DT Marvin Austin, LB Bruce
Carter, WR Greg Little
Key 2010 Out of Conference Game: Sept. 4 vs. LSU
(Atlanta)
Best Case 2010 Scenario: Season opening win over
LSU, followed by wins over Rutgers, East Carolina, and a flawless
ACC slate.
Worst Case 2010 Scenario: Ole Miss 2009 -- Lots of
media hype, big expectations, and slightly above average results.
9. Nebraska -- The Ndamukong Suh Era is officially
over in Lincoln, but the Bo Pelini Era is truly just beginning. For
as good as the Nebraska D was in '09 -- and umm, yeah, it was
pretty darn good -- it might be even better in 2010. Suh and safety
Matt O’Hanlon are gone, but rising junior Jared Crick and the
bulk of the '09 defense returns. The offense? It can only get
better. Zac Lee and Cody Green will battle it out for starting
quarterback duties, and both Roy Helu and Rex Burkhead will star in
the backfield.
Returning Stars: DT Jared Crick, RB Roy Helu, WR
Brandon Kinnie
Key 2010 Out of Conference Game: Sept. 18 at
Washington
Best Case 2010 Scenario: Carl Pelini’s
defense picks up where it left off following NU’s 33-0
Holiday Bowl win, the offense shows a pulse and scores some points,
and the home crowd gives Garrett Gilbert hell in Oct. 16 bout with
Texas in Lincoln.
Worst Case 2010 Scenario: The defense crumbles
without Suh and O’Hanlon, the offense doesn’t improve,
and the ‘Huskers slip back to the middle of the Big 12.
8. Florida -- Tim Tebow, Joe Haden, Brandon James,
Riley Cooper, Brandon Spikes, Aaron Hernandez, Carlos Dunlap, and
both Pouncey brothers will be playing pro football on Sundays next
season. Urban Meyer might not be roaming the sidelines. And yet,
I’ve still got the Gators as a Top 10 squad. What gives? I
think John Brantley’s the best quarterback you’ve never
heard of, Will Hill’s an up-and-coming star, and this team
will savor being disregarded by the bulk of the media after two
years of nothing short of an all-out media love fest.
Returning Stars: S Will Hill, LB Jon Bostic, RB
Chris Rainey
Key 2010 Out of Conference Game: Sep. 11 vs. South
Florida
Best Case 2010 Scenario: Disrespected by the media
in summer polls, team rallies together and under whoever ends up
coaching them, upsets Alabama in Tuscaloosa on Oct. 2, takes down
Georgia in Jacksonville, then beates Florida State in the
regular-season finale out in Tallahassee.
Worst Case 2010 Scenario: Brantley isn’t as
ready as everyone assumes he is, Steve Addazio struggles as the
“kinda sorta, we think so” temporary head coach, and
the SEC takes its jabs at a young Gators squad.
7. Pittsburgh -- When Greg Romeus, a surefire
first round NFL pick had he wanted to go that route, declared
he’d be coming back to school, Pitt catapulted into the '10
Big East favorite spot. In Romeus, rising sophomore and Heisman
Hopeful Dion Lewis, and stud receiver Jonathan Baldwin, Pitt has
three of the top individual talents in the entire conference.
Pitt’s got holes all over, but should be a tough out in
’10.
Returning Stars: RB Dion Lewis, DE Greg Romeus, DE
Jabaal Sheard
Key 2010 Out of Conference Game: Sept. 25 vs.
Miami
Best Case 2010 Scenario: Pitt knocks off Utah on
the road on Sept. 11, beats Miami and Notre Dame, and then cleans
up in a down-year for the Big East. James wins the Heisman, Romeus
sweeps the defensive awards, and Dave Wannstedt wins his first Big
East title.
Worst Case 2010 Scenario: Rising sophomore Tino
Sunseri struggles to replace Bill Stull, the Panthers drop early
out-of-conference games in Utah and vs. Miami and Notre Dame, and
falls to the bottom of the Big East without a senior leader under
center.
6. Texas -- With the snap of a shoulder, the
Garrett Gilbert Era was jumpstarted in the Jan. 7 BCS title game.
After a shaky first half, Gilbert looked fantastic in the final two
quarters vs. a sturdy Alabama defense. Colt McCoy and Sergio Kindle
won’t be back in '10, but there are several up-and-comers
chomping at the bit to take leadership roles.
Returning Stars: DE Sam Acho, QB Garrett Gilbert,
RB Tre Newton
Key 2010 Out of Conference Game: Sept. 25 vs. UCLA
Best Case 2010 Scenario: Garrett Gilbert comes out
slingin’, the no-name defense rallies under Will Muschamp,
and Mack Brown gets the most out of his full cupboard of running
backs. Texas beats up on UCLA and Oklahoma in back-to-back weekends
and then escapes Lincoln unscathed in what should be the Big
12’s game of the year on Oct. 16.
Worst Case 2010 Scenario: Gilbert struggles out of
the gates, the defense misses Kindle’s fire, and Oklahoma,
Nebraska, and Oklahoma State beat up on the McCoy-less Longhorns.
5. Boise State -- I’ve seen some pundits
place the Broncos as high as no. 2 on their preseason Top Tens, and
that’s not so absurd. The Broncos return 21 of 22 starters on
offense and defense, bring back a seasoned rising junior in Kellen
Moore at quarterback, and have finally earned the respect and
admiration of college football writers. Or at least, we’d
hope so.
Returning Stars: QB Kellen Moore, RB Jeremy Avery,
CB Brandyn Thompson
Key 2010 Out of Conference Game: Oct. 2 vs.
Virginia Tech (Washington D.C.)
Best Case 2010 Scenario: Boise State silences
their critics with early season wins over BCS powers Oregon State
and Virginia Tech, wins another WAC title, and becomes the first
mid major to compete in a BCS title game.
Worst Case Scenario: The Broncos fall to Oregon
State and get embarrassed on the road at Virginia Tech, stumble vs.
Nevada and/or Fresno State, and miss out on BCS bowl contention
despite a slew of returning starters.
4. Iowa -- Many folks, including myself, wrote off
Iowa’s 9-0 start to the 2009 season to some lucky bounces,
fortunate turnovers, and inferior Big Ten conference play. After
seeing the Hawkeyes dismantle and destroy the high powered Georgia
Tech offense in the Orange Bowl, I realized it’s time to stop
hating on the Hawkeyes. This was a damn good team and should be an
even better team in '10.
Returning Stars: QB Ricky Stanzi, DE Adrian
Clayborn, WR Marvin McNutt
Key 2010 Out of Conference Game: Sept. 18 at
Arizona
Best Case 2010 Scenario: Clutch quarterback Ricky
Stanzi emerges as a Heisman contender in his senior season, guiding
the Hawkeyes offense to a flawless season with wins in Iowa City
over Penn State, Wisconsin, Michigan State, and Ohio State. After
holding court in those four home games, the Hawkeyes earn the
respect of the voters and qualify for their first BCS title game.
Worst Case 2010 Scenario: Stanzi struggles to stay
healthy, the offense falters without Bryan Bulaga manning the left
tackle spot, and the defense can’t live up to expectations
without Pat Angerer manning the middle. Iowa loses to Penn State at
home early in the season, then falls to Wisconsin and Ohio State in
Iowa City later on.
3. Oregon -- Too high? Perhaps. But with 10 of 11
offensive starters returning from a unit that put up 36 points per
game, it’s hard not to be high on the Ducks in '10. Nine
starters return on defense, too. Jeremiah Masoli and Kenny Rowe
will be the team leaders in a potentially epic down year for the
Pac-10.
Returning Stars: QB Jeremiah Masoli, LB Kenny
Rowe, RB LaMichael James
Key 2010 Out of Conference Game: Sept. 11 at
Tennessee
Best Case 2010 Scenario: Oregon handles Tennessee
in Knoxville, cruises through a light September and early October
Pac-10 slate, then knocks off USC in the LA Coliseum on Halloween
weekend. The Ducks win their second consecutive Pac-10 title,
finish the year with a flawless record, and become the first team
to represent the Pac-10 in the BCS title game since USC did it in
'05.
Worst Case 2010 Scenario: The Ducks struggle on
the road vs. Lane Kiffin’s former team in Tennessee and on
the road vs. his current one at USC, Oregon State gets the best of
the Ducks at home in the Civil War, and 19 of 22 returning starters
end up playing in the Holiday or Emerald Bowl in late December.
2. Ohio State -- The Big Ten hasn’t been
this strong from top to bottom since the late ‘90s and Ohio
State appears to be the cream of the crop. The Buckeyes got rid of
that big game albatross with a convincing Rose Bowl win over Oregon
and should only be tougher and smarter in '10. Terrelle Pryor,
Devier Posey, and thunder n’ lightning running duo Brandon
Saine and Boom Herron star on offense, while the defense brings
back just about every top contributor.
Returning Stars: QB Terrelle Pryor, WR Devier
Posey, LB Brian Rolle
Key 2010 Out of Conference Game: Sept. 11 vs.
Miami
Best Case 2010 Scenario: Ohio State beats up on
Miami in a rematch of the 2003 BCS title game in Columbus, wins key
road games at Wisconsin and Iowa, and defends home field in the
Horseshoe vs. Penn State and Michigan. The Buckeyes finish the
season undefeated, go to their third BCS title game in five years,
and this time, come out as victors and national champs.
Worst Case 2010 Scenario: Pryor reverts back to
his 2009 mid-season ways, the offense struggles against top notch
Penn State, Wisconsin, and Iowa defenses, and the Buckeyes drop
another out-of-conference home game to a national power in
September. The Buckeyes finish fourth in the Big Ten, play in a
pre-New Year’s Day bowl game, and calls for Jim
Tressell’s job start back up in Columbus.
1. Alabama -- Though the national champs are
losing three All-American defenders to the NFL in Rolando McClain,
Terrence Cody, and Javier Arenas -- the bulk of the offense,
including Heisman Trophy winner Mark Ingram and superhuman wideout
Julio Jones are back. LB Donta Hightower and DE Marcell Dareus are
expected to take the torch from McClain, Cody, and Arenas on D, and
Nick Saban’s already got his boys focused on a repeat in '10.
Returning Stars: QB Greg McElroy, RB Mark Ingram,
DE Marcell Dareus
Key 2010 Out of Conference Game: Sept. 11 vs. Penn
State
Best Case 2010 Scenario: The Tide rolls over Penn
State in Tuscaloosa in September, rides that momentum into the SEC
regular season slate, and wins key conference home games vs.
Florida and Ole Miss. The Tide then wins its third straight vs.
LSU, takes down Auburn, and captures its second consecutive SEC and
BCS titles.
Worst Case 2010 Scenario: Alabama’s defense
struggles out of the gates without McClain and Cody up the middle,
losing at home to a Penn State ground game anchored by senior Evan
Royster and center Stefen Wisniewski, then drops a pair of
conference road games in Knoxville and Baton Rouge. Mark Ingram and
Trent Richardson fail to live up to the hype and the Tide end up
playing in the Music City Bowl vs. an ACC also-ran on Christmas
Eve.
“Way Too Early” BCS Bowl Projections:
National Title Game: Alabama vs. Iowa
Rose Bowl: Ohio State vs. Oregon
Sugar Bowl: Florida vs. Nebraska
Fiesta Bowl: Boise State vs. Texas
Orange Bowl: Pittsburgh vs. North Carolina
The Rest of the Top 25:
11. Georgia Tech
12. Penn State
13. TCU
14. Virginia Tech
15. Wisconsin
16. California
17. LSU
18. Miami
19. Oklahoma
20. Houston
21. Oregon State
22. Utah
23. Florida State
24. Georgia
25. USC
