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It appears director Garry Marshall, with the romantic comedy “New Year’s Eve” coming out just 22 months after 2010’s forgettable “Valentine’s Day,” has a real stranglehold on the monster, star-studded ensemble casts in Hollywood these days.
For his next film, he might want to consider “Heisman 2011.”
Never before have there been so many names considered legitimate contenders this close to the award ceremony.
In a typical Heisman year, there usually are two to three candidates with realistic shots by the end of November at taking home the trophy. By the second week in December, it’s usually down to two, with one clear favorite.
Last year, in a rare exception in which the Heisman winner was decided by early October, Cam Newton garnered 781 of a possible 886 first-place votes — good for the 11th-biggest margin of victory in Heisman Trust history.
In 2009, the closest Heisman race of all time, Mark Ingram edged Stanford running back Toby Gerhart by just 22 points. It was 2008, however, that marked the most peculiar Heisman finish in recent memory. That year Sam Bradford won the Heisman based on overall points, but it was Tim Tebow, the third-place finisher, who garnered the most first-place votes (309 to 300).
Those races were two- and three-men marathons with sprints to the finish.
Here we are, days away from the 2011 ceremony, and not only is there no clear-cut favorite, but there also aren’t two or three players who’ve clearly separated themselves from the rest of the pack. It’s quite possible the 2011 Heisman winner won’t have the most first-place votes or even the second-most first place votes. It could be that close.
With five worthy finalists and a few guys not invited to New York City garnering more than their fair share of votes, this one is set to be not only the closest, but also the deepest, Heisman finish of all-time.
Chris Huston, publisher of the popular HeismanPundit.com web site, says: “It will be up there with some of the more wide-open races of all-time. As in 2009, there are multiple candidates who seemingly have a legitimate shot to win, but I think we'll have an educated guess on the winner come ceremony time.”
Perhaps the Heisman race most like this one was the great campaign of 1989. In the days leading up to the ceremony at the Downtown Athletic Club, Sports Illustrated printed a cover that read “Five for Heisman,” with the names and images of Major Harris, Tony Rice, Emmitt Smith, Anthony Thompson and Andre Ware splashed across newsstands everywhere.
Ware won the Heisman, but it wasn’t as close as the SI scribes likely imagined it’d be. In the balloting, Houston QB Ware amassed 1,073 points, drawing 242 first-place votes (worth 3 points apiece), 132 second-place votes (2 points each) and 83 third-place votes (1 point). Runner-up Thompson secured 70 fewer first-place votes. Emmitt Smith didn’t even finish in the top five. That year, like this one, wasn’t a one- or two-horse race — it was a crowded field of all types of thoroughbreds.
The 2002 campaign was the most recent hotly contested five-horse race as Carson Palmer edged Brad Banks, Larry Johnson, Willis McGahee and Ken Dorsey. Though Palmer won rather handily, all five finalists earned more than 640 points — impressive showings across the board.
Ballots were due Monday afternoon at 5 p.m., and an hour afterward, five men were announced as finalists by the Heisman Trust. Here are what they’ve got working in their favor and against them, and what the guys in Vegas feel:
1. Trent Richardson, Junior, Running Back, Alabama
The Stats: 1,583 rushing yards, 20 TDs.
The Signature Moment: Though his 203-yard performance on national television against Auburn in Alabama’s season finale solidified Richardson’s spot in the final five, this run against Ole Miss was the highlight you’ll see on Saturday night most often.
Why he could win it: Richardson, for all intents and purposes, had a better campaign this year than former teammate Mark Ingram did when he won the Heisman in 2009. Richardson’s the best offensive player on the No. 2-ranked team in the nation and carried the ’Bama offense on his back a year after the squad lost its starting quarterback, left tackle, running back and wide receiver to the draft.
What his detractors would say: In the biggest game of the season, a 9-6 overtime loss to LSU in Tuscaloosa, Richardson was held to 89 yards on 23 carries.
BetOnline.com Odds on Aug. 25: +1200.
BetOnline.com Odds on Dec. 6: -160.
2. Andrew Luck, Junior, Quarterback, Stanford
The Stats: 3,170 passing yards, 35 TDs, 9 INTs, 70 percent completion rate.
The Signature Moment: Luck made countless beautiful passes, but his eye-popping Heisman moment actually was a catch vs. UCLA. The redshirt junior showed his underrated athleticism with this one-handed grab.
Why he could win it: With perhaps more eyeballs and critics watching his every snap than any college quarterback of all-time, Luck delivered week in and week out. Without a single NFL-caliber receiver, Stanford went 11-1. Luck arguably had a better year than he did in 2010, when he finished second in the Heisman voting.
What his detractors would say: Luck had one big prime-time game on national television, a much-hyped meeting with Oregon in Palo Alto. He had his worst game of the season, throwing three interceptions in a 53-30 loss that cost Stanford the Pac-12 title.
BetOnline.com Odds on Aug. 25: +250.
BetOnline.com Odds on Dec. 6: +125.
3. Robert Griffin III, Senior, Quarterback, Baylor
The Stats: 3,998 passing yards, 36 TDs, 6 INTs, 72.4 percent completion rate; 644 rushing yards, 9 TDs.
The Signature Moment: Griffin had quite a few dazzling plays, but none was bigger than this game-winning touchdown pass Nov. 19 in Baylor’s first-ever victory over Oklahoma.
Why he could win it: Baylor went 9-3, with wins over TCU, Oklahoma and Texas. Without Griffin, they might not have finished over .500.
What his detractors would say: Baylor had a good year for Baylor standards, but the Bears still lost three games, including blowout losses in consecutive weeks at Texas A&M and Oklahoma State. Though he excelled statistically in those two games, Griffin couldn’t lift the Bears to victories on the road.
BetOnline Odds on Aug. 25: Not on the board.
BetOnline Odds on Dec. 6: +300.
4. Montee Ball, Junior, Running Back, Wisconsin
The Stats: 1,759 yards on 75 carries, 38 TDs.
The Signature Moment: Ball didn’t have a signature moment, but rather, a signature game: carrying the rock 27 times for 137 yards and three TDs in Wisconsin’s Big Ten championship game victory over Michigan State on Saturday.
Why he could win it: Few college running backs have had statistical seasons quite like Ball had. The first Big Ten player to be invited to New York since Troy Smith won the award in ’06, Ball came just one touchdown shy of tying Barry Sanders’ single-season touchdown record. Ball also didn’t pile up the yards against bad teams in garbage time; he sat in the fourth quarter of most blowout wins.
What his detractors would say: Some would argue that Ball wasn’t even the most valuable player on his team; that’d be senior quarterback Russell Wilson. Ball’s Heisman campaign didn’t get much momentum until November, hurting his chances. In Wisconsin’s worst loss, Ball failed to break the 100-yard mark versus Ohio State.
BetOnline Odds on Aug. 25: Not on the board.
BetOnline Odds on Dec. 6: +600
5. Tyrann Mathieu, Sophomore, Cornerback, LSU
The Stats: 70 tackles, 6 forced fumbles, 5 fumble recoveries, 2 punt returns for touchdowns.
The Signature Moment: With LSU down 10-0 in the SEC championship game, it was Mathieu who got the Tigers back on track with this punt return for a score.
Why he could win it: Mathieu, nicknamed “The Honey Badger,” is the most dynamic player on the No. 1 team in the nation. He scored TDs in three of LSU’s biggest games: versus Oregon, Arkansas and Georgia.
What his detractors would say: Some would dock Mathieu for a failed drug test that resulted in a one-game suspension. Others would say that Mathieu, though the team’s most exciting corner, isn’t even the team’s best defensive back. That title would belong to All-SEC performer Morris Claiborne.
BetOnline Odds on Aug. 25: Not on the board.
BetOnline Odds on Dec. 6: +800
So, who will win it on Saturday evening? Hey, beats the heck out of me, but here’s my predicted order of finish:
1. Griffin III
2. Luck
3. Richardson
4. Ball
5. Mathieu
6. Matt Barkley, Junior, Quarterback, USC
7. Justin Blackmon, Junior, Wide Receiver, Oklahoma State
8. Case Keenum, Senior, Quarterback, Houston
9. Brandon Weeden, Senior, Quarterback, Oklahoma State
10. Sammy Watkins, Freshman, Wide Receiver, Clemson
