.vresize.36.36.medium.0.png){kind=small}
.vresize.36.36.medium.0.png){kind=small}
Forward Pass: Can Ole Miss upset Bama in season-defining Week 6?
The recent history of Ole Miss football is littered with near-misses, and the latest came early Sunday afternoon. The Rebels were set to host the first-ever meeting of Top 10 teams in the state of Mississippi when AP No. 3 Alabama visits Oxford this week, but voters in that poll dropped Ole Miss from 10th to 11th.
Of course, the Rebels’ current ranking will be moot a week from now. So will a whole lot of other teams’. Following an uneventful Week 5 in which the most interesting game involved Florida State beating NC State by 15 points, Week 6 is shaping up as one of those season-defining turning points. Ranked teams will square off with one another in six games Saturday (seven if you use the coaches poll, where Arizona State somehow remains in the Top 25 after losing 62-27 to UCLA).
But the most remarkable part of all is that two of those games – No. 3 Alabama at No. 11 Ole Miss and No. 6 Texas A&M at No. 12 Mississippi State -- will take place less than two hours apart in a football-hungry state whose two SEC schools don’t often play high-stakes national games. Ole Miss has not finished a season ranked in the Top 10 since 1969, the Bulldogs not since 1940.
Just three years ago Ole Miss was playing out a 2-10 season under lame-duck coach Houston Nutt. Two acclaimed recruiting classes later, third-year coach Hugh Freeze’s program is hosting the biggest game at Vaught-Hemingway Stadium since another Nick Saban-coached team, third-ranked LSU, edged Eli Manning’s 10-win 2003 team en route to a BCS national championship.
“For us to, in a little more than two years, go from where the program was when we arrived to playing a game of this magnitude on campus here, with so much riding on it, validates that our process is working,” Freeze told FOX Sports on Sunday. “It’s ahead of schedule in my opinion.”
Mind you, there are undoubtedly no shortage of cynics outside the parochial Southeast who question why the 4-0 Rebels are ranked anywhere near the Top 10. Egg Bowl rival Mississippi State, also 4-0, at least had a statement win, 34-29 at then-eighth-ranked LSU two weeks ago. Ole Miss started the season 18th and has quietly moved up the ladder despite turnover-filled offensive performances in both its season-opening 35-13 win over Boise State and last Saturday’s 24-3 win over Memphis. Both were one-score games entering the fourth quarter.
Now, Freeze’s team must turn around and take on offensive behemoth Alabama, currently averaging 594.3 yards per game and presumably well-rested coming off a bye week. Amari Cooper could well come in and spoil the party at the Grove, which will be hosting its first-ever visit from College GameDay. But before you go writing off the Rebels … have you seen their defense?
Ole Miss has had its share of defensive standouts over the years – Patrick Willis, Greg Hardy and Peria Jerry, to name a few -- but those who have closely followed the program say this is its most talented defense in decades. Led by All-American safety Cody Prewitt, fearsome pass-rusher C.J. Johnson and disruptive nickel back Tony Conner, Ole Miss is allowing just 8.5 points per game, third-best nationally. Opposing quarterbacks have completed just one touchdown while throwing nine interceptions.
Ole Miss’ ascension on that side of the ball is a surprise if only because Freeze is known more for his acumen as a hurry-up offense guru.
“Everyone in this building understood from Day 1, we can suffer offensively early on if we have to, but we better get the defensive depth chart fixed,” said Freeze, 45, formerly an Ole Miss assistant under Ed Orgeron from 2005-07. “That’s been our emphasis in recruiting. And finally, before the season, I looked at that depth chart and it looked like an SEC depth chart.”
No one has successfully flustered ‘Bama quarterback Blake Sims or held down receiver Cooper, but Ole Miss may just be the SEC West’s best threat to do it. In fact the Rebels, 15-11 in Freeze’s first two seasons, held the Tide to two touchdowns in a 25-0 loss last season. But new coordinator Lane Kiffin’s ‘Bama offense is “totally different,” said Freeze. “They’ve always been very talented, but now they’re using some of their talent a little differently, with multiple options on every play. It’s certainly going to make it tough to defend.”
Meanwhile, Ole Miss will need a mistake-free performance from Bo Wallace, who, despite his status as the SEC’s most experienced quarterback, committed three turnovers apiece in the Boise State and Memphis games. But even so, he’s the nation’s 13th-rated passer. “I wish I could tell you I’m not concerned about [the turnovers],” said Freeze. “… Hopefully he has one of his good games.”
Hopefully there’s a bunch of good games Saturday. All those numbers in front of various teams’ names suggest there will be. And for one day at least, the epicenter of college football will be The Magnolia State. We know at least one selection committee member will be watching closely – Ole Miss great Archie Manning.
NOTRE DAME’S FIRST TRUE TEST
In the second halves of their 2010 and ’11 meetings, Oregon broke open close games after halftime to post 50-plus points against Stanford’s worn-down defenses. “We felt like we needed to play more guys and build more depth,” said Lance Anderson, then the Cardinal’s outside linebackers coach and now their defensive coordinator. “Over the last few years one thing that’s really helped us is rolling guys through so they’re fresh.”
Deeper rotations helped Stanford shut down the high-powered Ducks in their last two meetings and win consecutive Pac-12 championships. And despite losing multiple All-America selections from those two teams, the Cardinal defense is playing at an even higher level through four games. Following Saturday’s 20-13 win at Washington, 3-1 Stanford has allowed just two offensive touchdowns in four games, one to the Huskies and one in a 13-10 loss to USC on Sept. 6. And that personnel rotation just keeps getting deeper. On Saturday, redshirt freshman Peter Kalambayi – a second-string outside linebacker – notched three sacks against Washington.
“We’re getting to the point where those outside linebackers and ends are pretty interchangeable,” Anderson, who succeeded Derek Mason as coordinator, told FOX Sports on Sunday.
This week, though, No. 14 Stanford faces its biggest test to date when it travels east to face ninth-ranked Notre Dame. The last time the teams played in South Bend, in 2012, the Irish survived 20-13 in overtime en route to an undefeated regular season. Then, like now, the Cardinal were struggling to find an offensive identity. The 4-0 Irish, on the other hand, are rolling behind drastically improved quarterback Everett Golson.
Two years ago Golson was an unconfident redshirt freshman who got benched in that game for Tommy Rees. Last Saturday against Syracuse at the Meadowlands, Notre Dame’s quarterback at one point completed 25 straight passes, one short of the FBS record, and threw for a career-high 362 yards in a 31-15 Irish victory.
“When we played him before, he was a very athletic quarterback, he made a lot of plays running around, and he’s always had a strong arm. He has a cannon,” said Anderson. “What I’ve seen on film, not only is he making plays running around, not only does he have a strong arm, but he’s improved his accuracy a lot. He’s an all-around threat.”
Notre Dame is not without questions, though. For one thing, its 31-0 rout of Michigan back in Week 2, which helped vault the Irish up the rankings, doesn’t look so special now. And amidst all the good Saturday night, Golson also committed four turnovers, including a pick-six that briefly gave the Orange hope. Over the next three weeks, Brian Kelly’s team plays both Stanford and Florida State, at which point you’ll know whether the Irish are playoff contenders or future Russell Athletic Bowl participants.
Anderson had only just begun watching film Sunday but had already formed his opinion.
“Notre Dame,” he said, “is really good.”
CAN NEBRASKA CRACK THE PLAYOFF RACE?
Remember when many of us declared the Big Ten’s playoff hopes dead after its disastrous Week 2 showing? There were at least two remaining silver linings at the time. One, just because Michigan State couldn’t beat Oregon at Autzen Stadium didn’t mean the Spartans couldn’t still produce a great team. Since then they’ve beaten Eastern Michigan and Wyoming by a combined score of 129-28.
And while Nebraska endured a scare from FCS foe McNeese State earlier that same day, the Huskers didn’t lose. In fact, heading into an important conference road test Saturday against the 10th-ranked Spartans, No. 19 Nebraska is now 5-0, the conference’s lone remaining undefeated team. They’ve scored at least 41 points in consecutive wins over Fresno State (55-19), Miami (41-31) and Illinois (45-14).
Saturday in East Lansing, we find out whether Bo Pelini’s team – which last won its first five in 2010, when it won the Big 12 North – is capable of crashing the playoff conversation.
“It’s going to be a dogfight,” said Huskers quarterback Tommy Armstrong Jr.
While Nebraska looks improved in several areas, its core identity centers around one particularly gifted player, I-back Ameer Abdullah.
The Heisman candidate notched his third 200-yard game of the season against the Illini, rushing 22 times for 208 yards and three touchdowns. On Saturday, he and Imani Cross combined for 183 yards in the first quarter. “That changes a football game,” said Pelini.”… There's nothing more demoralizing than when you can't stop the run.”
Abdullah’s had success against Michigan State’s stout rushing defense before, going over 100 yards each of the past two seasons. Nebraska gave the eventual Rose Bowl champions their toughest regular-season conference game last year, falling 41-28 due in large part to five turnovers.
The Huskers are still living dangerously at times. They had two turnovers against the woeful Illini which, along with two long Illinois touchdowns, left Pelini mostly tempered in his postgame assessment. “We're nowhere near what we're capable of being or where we want to be,” he said.
They’ve got a week to get there.
THIS WEEK’S BOWL FORECAST
Each week, I'll update my predicted lineup for the New Year’s Six bowls based on the latest week's games.
Peach: Michigan State (Big Ten champ) vs. East Carolina (Group of 5)
Fiesta: UCLA (at-large) vs. Notre Dame (at-large)
Orange: Clemson (ACC) vs. Alabama (B1G/SEC/ND)
Cotton: Texas A&M (at-large) vs. Baylor (at-large)
Sugar (semifinal): No. 1 Oklahoma vs. No. 4 Florida State
Rose (semifinal): No. 2 Auburn vs. No. 3 Oregon
The defending champion Seminoles just keep winning, and in fact reached 20 straight Saturday. But only the last four of those 20 will hold any bearing with the selection committee, and a new flaw gets exposed with Jimbo Fisher’s team seemingly every week. This time it was NC State quarterback Jacoby Brissett shredding a normally stout FSU defense down two starting linemen, Mario Edwards and Niles Lawrence-Stample (the latter out for the season). Fortunately for the ‘Noles, Jameis Winston, Rashad Greene and budding No. 2 receiver Jesus Wilson can wipe out a 24-7 deficit in a hurry.
But on Sunday, the coaches poll came around to my point of view from last week that FSU, while still a viable playoff contender, does not look like this season’s No. 1 team. Mine is Oklahoma for now, but that could change as soon as this weekend as the Sooners, Auburn and Alabama all play tough conference games.
Meanwhile, a hearty welcome back to UCLA, which began the season as one of my Playoff Four, fell out of this lineup entirely after three shaky wins to start the year but now returns to the New Year’s Six following a 62-27 thumping at Arizona State last Thursday. This was the Brett Hundley we expected to see before the year, notching 427 total yards and five touchdowns. The Bruins host Oregon in two weeks with a chance to make an even bigger statement.
I’LL BE KEEPING AN EYE ON …
Clemson QB Deshaun Watson. Only Clemson’s coaches can explain why they didn’t go with the true freshman from Day 1, but he’s quite clearly the guy now following a 50-35 win against North Carolina’s admittedly woeful defense. Watson threw for 435 yards and a school-record six touchdowns.
Ohio State RB Ezekiel Elliott. Three weeks after its woeful performance against Virginia Tech, Ohio State’s young offense exploded for 710 yards in a 50-28 win over Cincinnati. Sophomore Elliott, whom coaches hoped would emerge as a true No. 1 back, ran 28 times for 182 yards.
Air Force. The 3-1 Falcons, who slipped to 2-10 last season, surprised Boise State 28-14 thanks in part to three interceptions by safety Weston Steelhammer. “As much as these guys put into their endeavors, it’s nice for them to get a little taste like this,” said AFA coach Troy Calhoun.
Colorado State. This Mountain West squad did not win its own earlier meeting with Boise but has knocked off two Power 5 foes -- Colorado and, on Saturday, Boston College, the same team that beat USC just two weeks ago. “This was a huge win for us,” said Rams coach Jim McElwain.
Penn State’s confidence. Northwestern, 1-2 going in, became the first team to exploit Penn State’s precarious offensive line, whipping the 4-0 Nittany Lions up front in an out-of-nowhere 29-6 rout in Happy Valley. Their season may swing on how well James Franklin’s team responds.
THIS WEEK’S COACH OF THE YEAR CANDIDATE
Akron’s Terry Bowden. The spirit of the ‘90s is alive in Akron. On Saturday, the former Auburn coach – with help from his defensive coordinator, former NC State coach Chuck Amato – knocked off Pitt, 21-10. Amato’s defense held Pitt star James Conner, the nation’s No. 1 rusher coming in, to 92 yards on 25 carries.
THIS WEEK’S COACH ON THE HOT SEAT
Kansas’ Charlie Weis. That seat went up in flames Sunday, with AD Sheahon Zenger relieving Weis of his duties following a 6-22 tenure. Granted, we saw this day coming the moment Zenger hired him, but the Jayhawks managed to reach new depths of ineptitude this season. Weis will still be handsomely compensated.
(Note: This department could easily become a weekly Brady Hoke item, so I’m going to pace myself. But here are some thoughts on Hoke from Saturday night.)
ON TO NEXT WEEKEND
Three games we’re most excited for:
Alabama at Ole Miss (Saturday, 3:30 ET). Vegas thinks the Rebels are legit. ‘Bama opened as only a four-point favorite. But the Tide have won the last 10 meetings. Ole Miss hasn’t come within one score since 2008.
Texas A&M at Mississippi State (Saturday, Noon ET). The Aggies’ young defense is slowly getting better. It held Arkansas scoreless in overtime. But Bulldogs QB Dak Prescott presents a unique challenge for any D.
Nebraska at Michigan State (Saturday, 8 ET). Spartans QB Connor Cook is the nation’s No. 3-rated passer behind only Marcus Mariota and Clemson’s Watson. The Huskers will have to bring a relentless pass-rush.
Three games you shouldn’t miss:
LSU at Auburn (Saturday, 7 ET). Was LSU’s defensive debacle against Mississippi State a sign that all those NFL defectors have finally caught up to Les Miles’ program? If so, Nick Marshall and Auburn could deliver another long night.
Stanford at Notre Dame (Saturday, 3:30 ET). Stanford has not reloaded on its offensive line as expected and has imploded in the red zone. It has some wiggle room, though, with a defense allowing 6.5 points per game.
Oklahoma at TCU (Saturday, 3:30 ET). The Sooners are hitting all of their most tricky conference road games early. TCU’s defense is allowing just 7.0 points per game, though against Samford, Minnesota and SMU.
One under-the-radar gem:
Ohio State at Maryland (Saturday, Noon ET). With last week’s rout of Indiana, the Terps (4-1, 1-0) sit alone atop the Big Ten East. Now they host their first-ever Big Ten home game against Ohio State, whose pass defense is vulnerable.
Stewart Mandel is a senior college sports columnist for FOXSports.com. He covered college football and basketball for 15 years at Sports Illustrated. His new book, “The Thinking Fan’s Guide to the College Football Playoff,” is now available on Amazon. You can follow him on Twitter @slmandel. Send emails and Mailbag questions to Stewart.Mandel@fox.com.
