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Yeah, yeah, yeah, the world would be a much better place if TCU played Cincinnati in a 3 vs. 4 matchup and if Boise State got its shot against Florida, but these two programs don’t really have to prove themselves to anyone. Their consistent greatness makes this a matchup of superpowers without the need to point out that they don’t play in BCS conferences.
For all the whining and grandstanding done by the Mountain West about how unfair the BCS is, the system almost got TCU into the national championship. Had Pitt not choked away a late lead to Cincinnati and had Hunter Lawrence’s field goal to give Texas the Big 12 title gone a wee bit to the left (and/or had Colt McCoy held onto the ball a half-second longer), it would be an Alabama vs. TCU BCS Championship. The Horned Frogs are a missed field goal against Utah in 2008 away from being on a 20-game winning streak.
It’s not just that the Horned Frogs are 12-0 and worthy of playing for the national title — it’s that they were a dominant 12-0 and really and truly are worthy of playing for the national title. There were two tight battles — beating Clemson in Death Valley, 14-10 and Air Force, 20-17, but over the last seven games, TCU won by a combined score of 329-73, or an average of 47-0. No one has come closer than 27 points over the stretch, and the team that did, Utah, only got its points late in a blowout. Yes, the Utah team that beat Cal in the Poinsettia Bowl got destroyed, 55-28, by TCU, and the BYU team that thumped Oregon State in the Las Vegas Bowl got destroyed, 38-7, at home.
Of course, one of TCU’s big wins on the current run was against Boise State in the 2008 Poinsettia Bowl, and that was the only Bronco loss in the last 26 games. While the Horned Frogs were deep in the national title chase all season long, Boise State was dismissed because it played in the WAC. No one bothered to use enough brain power to figure out if Boise was a great team that got fat in a horrendous conference, or if it was great team that just so happened to be in a horrendous conference.
For some reason, it’s as if the Broncos' win over Oregon didn’t exist. That was a jacked up Duck team that was looking to make a huge statement to start the season, and it got pantsed, 19-8, and gained just 21 yards rushing. A week later, Oregon cranked out 356 yards of total offense in a 38-36 win over Purdue, and on the year, the Duck attack finished averaging 236 rushing yards per game, sixth in the nation, and averaged 37.7 points per game, seventh in the nation. This is an offense that scored 30 or more points in every game by two, 40 or more points in seven games, but it was totally shut down by the Broncos. Spin it however you want to (the offense wasn’t jelled, Boise State was at home, etc.), but Boise State whacked the Pac-10 champion.
Only one team, Tulsa, came closer than 10 points to beating the Broncos, and that was a late-rally fluke sort of thing. Boise State led the nation in scoring offense, was never really threatened in any of the 13 games, and it came up with its fourth unbeaten regular season in six years and second in a row. The program is doing something right.
And yes, it’s unfortunate that these teams don’t get to play someone else. As far as national perception is concerned, the winner will have simply beaten a non-BCS team, while the loser’s mountain to climb to BCS respectability will be that much tougher to climb the next time around. So take this game for what it’ll probably be: the best bowl matchup of the 2009-2010 season.
Players to watch: On the short list of the best players who weren’t in the Heisman chase this year were Boise State QB Kellen Moore and TCU DE Jerry Hughes, and it could be argued that they were the two best players at their respective positions this season.
Wait, Kellen Moore? The best quarterback in America? He might not have the bulk numbers of Houston’s Case Keenum, but he was every bit the leader that Texas' Colt McCoy was and had a far better season than Florida's Tim Tebow. The Bronco sophomore led the nation in passing efficiency and put together a flawless campaign, completing 65% of his throws for 3,325 yards and 39 touchdowns with just three interceptions. Against the five bowl teams the Broncos played, Moore threw 17 touchdowns and no interceptions. He’s a peerless decision maker and is great at getting the ball out of his hands in a hurry, which will be a must against Hughes and the fearsome TCU pass rush.
Hughes finished seventh in the nation with 11.5 sacks, and while his great season didn’t always translate to the stat sheet, he saved some of his best games for the biggest moments. He destroyed Utah with eight tackles, a sack, and 3.5 tackles for loss with three quarterback hurries. BYU’s Max Hall struggled under the constant pressure. In last year’s game against the Broncos, Hughes was kept in check for the most part, but with the game on the line, he came up with the big sack needed for the win.
Moore and Hughes might be the headliners, but TCU’s Andy Dalton is due to become a star, but he plays second fiddle to the defense. The junior quarterback was fourth in the nation in passing efficiency throwing for 22 touchdowns while spreading out five interceptions, and he has also been a nice runner with 522 yards and three touchdowns on the year. He’s a calm, cool leader who gets the ball to his receivers in places where they can run really, really far, and while he has a decent deep arm, his game is about keeping the chains moving and getting everyone involved. The Boise State safeties have to worry about the speedy TCU receivers, and if Dalton sees an opening, he’ll take off.
Boise State will win if ... The offensive line can keep Moore upright and can bully the Horned Frog defensive front. The Boise State offensive line leads the nation in sacks allowed, giving up just five on the year with Oregon’s Kenny Rowe coming up with two in the season opener. Part of the success has come from Moore and his quick trigger, part of the reason is the lack of pass rushing talent in the MAC, and part of the reason is that the O line really is good. Moore is mobile, but he’s far better when he doesn’t have to make plays on the move. The Bronco line also has to do a little bit of smashmouth against the tough TCU defensive front. Utah tried that, to no effect, but that doesn’t mean that Boise State can abandon the run. The 1-2 combination of the speedy Jeremy Avery and the tough Doug Martin have to be established early on. Last year the Broncos ran for just 28 yards against the Horned Frogs, and if there are similar problems getting the ground game going, this won’t be pretty.
TCU will win if ... The secondary can erase Titus Young. With star target Austin Pettis gimpy at best, if he can play at all, Moore will have to focus on getting Young the ball in a variety of ways to open up the TCU defense a little bit. If the Boise State passing game comes down to swing passes to the running backs, the Horned Frogs will pounce with its tremendous team speed. Defensively, Boise State is incredibly active at making things happen in the backfield, but the Oregon win aside, the defensive front can be shoved around a bit. Fresno State’s Ryan Mathews gashed the Bronco front seven getting wide open spaces to fly through. The only other team on the slate with a strong running game was Nevada, and it came up with 242 yards with Vai Taua tearing off 160 yards and averaging 6.7 yards per carry. TCU’s read-option running game isn’t as effective as Nevada’s Pistol attack, but it has enough weapons to balance out the offense.
What will happen: TCU will make a statement. Boise State is good and deserved to be in the BCS without a question, but this is a special Horned Frog team that will come up with over 200 yards rushing and will harass Moore all game long. Boise State won’t be able to power the ball like it’ll want to early on, and after getting down early, it’ll have to start bombing away. With Young banged up, and with Hughes and company able to pin their ears back, TCU will make it tough for the Bronco offense to find any consistency.
