Fearless Predictions: Will Baylor's BCS title dream end in Stillwater?

Published Nov. 21, 2013 10:30 a.m. ET

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Next week will belong to the state of Alabama, with the Iron Bowl taking over college football, but this week is the Big 12's to own.

Can Baylor keep its dream of a BCS national title alive? It will have to beat Oklahoma State on the road in a top 10 matchup, and Stillwater is where we begin the Week 13 Fearless Predictions.

Check out CollegeFootballNews.com for more on this week's games.

Baylor is still shooting for the national championship, which depends on what happens to Alabama, Florida State and Ohio State he rest of the way. While it might turn out to be a major disappointment to go 12-0 and not play for the BCS championship, it’s Baylor. The program isn’t that far removed from being known more for its painfully long losing streak in conference play. Now head coach Art Briles has the Fiesta Bowl – at the very least – there for the taking. The Bears finally get a big stage and a chance to move up from its No. 4 spot and pass Ohio State in the BCS standings. But Oklahoma State might finally be the test that Oklahoma and Texas Tech weren’t.

If it wasn’t for a gag against a bad West Virginia team – losing 30-21 in the Big 12 opener – the Cowboys might be the ones in the hunt for the national title. Instead, they can get back to their second Fiesta Bowl in three years by winning their final two games. On a roll, winning six straight since the gaffe against the Mountaineers, they’ve been flying a bit under the radar, blowing out Texas last week and steamrolling over Texas Tech to get into the position to make this one of the nation’s biggest showdowns.

Why Baylor Might Win: Overall, the Oklahoma State defense might be doing a decent job, but it’s been lit up by the teams able to throw a forward pass. The secondary tightened up a bit after a rocky start, giving up 581 yards and four touchdowns in the first two weeks, but West Virginia’s Clint Trickett was able to connect on a few big plays and WVU came up with 320 yards. Texas Tech might have been blown out by OSU, but its passing attack clicked, cranking up 425 yards. Part of the problem was the lack of a steady pass rush, coming up with just one sack against both the Mountaineers and Red Raiders. Baylor has allowed just 13 sacks all season long. However …

NCAA Predictions

Prediction: Baylor 45, Oklahoma State 38

[Read more analysis here.]

Why You Should Give A Hoot: There’s still time to do something interesting. Neither one is in the SEC title chase anymore, but there’s still a chance for Texas A&M to slide into a BCS game by winning the final two games on the road – Missouri is next – while LSU is pushing for a decent bowl game. That might not be where the Tigers hoped they’d be at this point, but after losing to Georgia, Ole Miss and Alabama, the 2013 season has become about keeping the ship from sinking further.

LSU hasn’t been bad, but it could lose four games for the first time since 2009, only the current bar for the program is much higher. How will a team that’s used to fighting for the national title play out the string? Meanwhile, Texas A&M had a chance to beat Auburn in a 45-41 home loss, and there were plenty of opportunities to get the job done against Alabama. Overall, Manziel and the offense have been lights-out unstoppable, while the defense has given everyone a shot to keep up the pace. Winners of three straight and six of the last seven, the Aggies have been impressive, but their best win came against Ole Miss. Now it’s time to bag a big game.

Why LSU Might Win: The Texas A&M defense really is that bad. Does LSU want to pound away with the ground game? A&M doesn’t do ball control, and while LSU isn’t much better, it should be able to slow things down when needed and grind out the clock to keep Manziel on the sidelines. Without enough pressure from the defensive front, the Aggies have no prayer of handling the Tiger receiving corps. Zach Mettenberger should be able to do whatever he wants. The LSU offense might not be quite as exciting as A&M’s, but it’s even more effective. A&M is phenomenal at keeping the chains moving on third downs, but LSU leads the nation in that category, converting at a 58 percent clip.

What Will Happen: The Texas A&M disaster of a defense won’t be able to hold serve long enough for Manziel to do his magic. He’ll have a good game, but he’ll also get beaten up. LSU will be alive and kicking right away, and it’ll show from the opening quarter.

Prediction: LSU 45, Texas A&M 38

[Read more analysis here.]

Prediction: UCLA 39, Arizona State 35

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Why You Should Give A Hoot: It’s the longest running rivalry in major college football, with the two schools meeting for the 123rd time with more than just the Paul Bunyan Axe on the line this time around. The Badgers have won nine straight in the series, but Minnesota actually has a real chance at doing something big this season. If it can take back the Axe, and if Michigan State loses to Northwestern, next week’s showdown with the Spartans would be for the Legends title and a spot in the Big Ten championship.

Wisconsin is pushing for an at-large BCS bid, but Michigan State could be standing in the way; the Badgers’ low spot in the standings – currently 19th – isn’t helping. Technically, beating Minnesota could turn out to be the best win of the season, and that’s the problem – there aren’t enough quality victories to move the needle. Thanks to Minnesota’s shocking success, that could change.

On the other side, if Minnesota can win its next two games, it might be the second team from the Big Ten pushing for an at-large BCS bid. It might not always be pretty -- and the offense certainly isn’t explosive -- but after winning four straight, and with the first 10-win season since 2003 a possibility, a résumé with wins over Wisconsin, Michigan State and Nebraska might not be all that bad. First, the Gophers have to hold up against the Badger power game.

Wisconsin is killing teams, coming up with blowouts in every game but the losses to Arizona State and Ohio State. This is a typical tough Badger squad that doesn’t beat itself and is brutally effective on both sides of the ball. With Penn State to close things out, the Badgers are probably going to the Capital One Bowl by winning out. At best, Ohio State slips into the BCS championship and it’s on to Pasadena for a fourth-straight Rose Bowl appearance. But the Badgers have to take the Gophers seriously.

Prediction: Wisconsin 34, Minnesota 16

[Read more analysis here.]

CANDY FOR THE EARS

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