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While BYU’s leaving the Mountain West to go independent might not seem as if it's that big a deal on the surface, this might be the proverbial butterfly flapping its wings that leads to a chain of events that starts a tsunami. The school’s going rogue might have a bigger impact on the rest of the college football world than it will on its own football future.
First of all, don't equate BYU to Notre Dame in any way, shape or form. The two schools have ingrained ties to religion and both have national followings because of the church factor, but BYU isn't Notre Dame (even though Cougars already has their own television setup on cable and DirecTV).
No, the BCS shouldn't make any special exemptions for BYU in any way, and no, a move to independence doesn't make BYU the Notre Dame of the West. All it would mean is BYU would play more WAC teams and would be a pumped-up Boise State with one or two games that matter per year and a puffed-up record to chirp about.
More than anything else, it seems like a bit of a panicky move by BYU. The writing was on the wall after the last round of realignment and expansion talks, as it became obvious none of the big boys had any real interest in bringing BYU aboard.
The Pac-10 isn't going to come calling now that it has Utah (the Salt Lake City TV market has already been locked up), and the Big 12 isn't exactly on firm enough ground to make a pitch to expand back to 12 teams. The religious aspect is always going to be a sticking point, as are the research capabilities of the university, but that doesn't mean the football program and its rabid fan base aren't attractive.
Meanwhile, the Mountain West was able to tread water with the lateral move of replacing Utah with Boise State , and now it has gotten Fresno State and Nevada to sign on.
This should be a great move for the league as well as the two schools. Fresno (No. 55) and Reno (No. 108) don't have rocking TV markets, but the two schools have solid football programs, have been bowl regulars over the past few years and add more meat to the Mountain West's midsection that should raise the overall profile of the league. The additions would also help make up for the possible loss of BYU and could be a decent incentive to possibly keep the Cougars around.
And the Mountain West will probably start raiding Conference USA soon and start grabbing teams from Texas to create some natural tie-ins for TCU.
The goal for the league is to keep the stars (BYU and TCU) long enough to make the Boise State addition matter. Of course, TCU would bolt to the Big 12 in a heartbeat if asked, but if the Mountain West added Houston and UTEP, it would be a nice step forward to add to the TV package and bring aboard some solid markets. The next step has to be to keep breathing as long as possible, because the Big 12 isn't going to stay in its current form for long.
The same problems that schools like Missouri and Kansas had before with the Big 12 are only going to be worse in a 10-team league. If you thought it was Texas, Oklahoma and everyone else before, just wait until the focus and the spotlight becomes all about the Red River Rivalry and nothing else. The Mountain West was interested in throwing out an offer to Iowa State, Kansas State and possibly Kansas when it appeared the three might not have anywhere to go if Texas had left, but that fizzled. If the league wants to be a player in the BCS, and if it wants to get an automatic invite, then it has to get bigger, it has to get better, and it can't lose BYU.
It might take a sweetheart of a deal to keep BYU, and this could end up being a bunch of posturing by the school to try to get more money and concessions out of the TV and bowl deals. But assuming BYU is serious about doing this, it needs a better plan and a better end game than simply hoping independence will equal bigger exposure and a larger payday.
If the school stayed put and became a bigger fish in the Mountain West pond, it would have a better shot of being in the BCS equation than as an independent. Unless there's some Notre Dame-like exception in the BCS bylaws, the big bowls are always going to take a second team from the SEC, Big Ten, Big 12 and Pac-10 before they take an eligible BYU, and if the Mountain West is without the Cougars, the path to 12-0 will be easier for TCU or Boise State to grab another BCS spot.
The other key part of this would be the precedent and the template set for other programs. If BYU bolts and is successful, then why wouldn't Texas take a harder look at what life would be like on its own? Maybe Kansas, because of its basketball program, might survive by being an independent while the football program might gain more national notoriety by getting out from under the Texas shadow. Maybe Ohio State becomes sick of carrying the Big Ten and goes off to look for a sweetheart deal of its own.
Give BYU credit for thinking out of the box, and give the school even more credit if this is a shakedown of the Mountain West. It's a forward-thinking possibility that should make 2011 even more interesting in what already shapes up to be a year of wild change.
— Pete Fiutak
Gambling move by BYU
Just when you thought it was safe to step away from the realignment chatter, BYU delivers one of the biggest shockers of the offseason.
Who saw this bombshell shell coming, BYU leaving the Mountain West following this season for football independence beginning in 2011? It’s risky for the program and absolutely devastating for the Mountain West, which had been at break even after swapping Pac-10 bound Utah for Boise State.
With this development, however, you can forget about the conference getting the automatic BCS bowl bid that it coveted for so long. In fact, with the seams of the conference beginning to show, the Broncos can completely tear it to shreds if, as rumors are indicating, they decide to return to the WAC. At this point, a Boise-led WAC is no worse off than a TCU-led Mountain West. Heck, is Air Force next, joining service academies Army and Navy as Independents?
After the rival Utes opted out and the Pac-10 and Big 12 showed no interest, the Cougars no longer felt conference affiliation offered enough advantages. BYU has one of the most underrated followings in the country, which it plans to leverage without sharing any revenues with the likes of UNLV and San Diego State. It can schedule as it pleases, pocket the entire bowl booty and possibly manufacture its own TV deal down the road. No, the Cougars are not Notre Dame West, but the similarities between the two football programs are about to gradually come into focus.
Spending the last five Decembers at the Las Vegas Bowl has obviously had a profound impact on the decision-makers at BYU. It’s created a bowl fatigue that could be addressed by the freedom that comes with independence. It’s also taught the usually conservative program a little something about gambling, because it’s rolling the dice with this decision to chart its own path, without the support of a league.
— Richard Cirminiello
