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Bowl projections: Notre Dame, Bama miss the playoff semifinals & more
Yes, it’s that time of year again -- the time when I pick through Conference USA teams’ schedules trying to figure out the sixth bowl-eligible team in hopes of delivering to you, the reader, the most accurate bowl projections on the Web.
But, boy, did they make my job harder this year.
The bowl system has changed drastically with the advent of the College Football Playoff. For one thing, the selection committee’s rankings will be used to fill open spots in the New Year’s Six bowls. While I can make an educated guess what those rankings will look like, we won’t know for sure until they are announced.
Meanwhile, several conferences have changed the selection process for their lower-profile bowls by pooling together several games of similar prestige. There’s no longer a clear-cut selection order.
As you’ll notice below, five different bowls are grouped together as “SEC Nos. 3-8.” The goal is to avoid rematches and repeat appearances and to place teams where they’d be likely to sell the most tickets. This means Kentucky could wind up going where you’d otherwise expect LSU, or vice versa.
Finally, it’s worth noting that I projected exactly 78 eligible teams for 78 spots, but I’m admittedly more conservative in the early going.
COLLEGE FOOTBALL PLAYOFF BOWLS
| DATE | BOWL | LOCATION | MATCHUP |
| Dec. 31 | Peach | Atlanta | Oklahoma (at-large) vs. East Carolina (Group of 5) |
| Dec. 31 | Fiesta | Glendale, Arizona | Notre Dame (at-large) vs. Kansas State (at-large) |
| Dec. 31 | Orange | Miami | Clemson (ACC) vs. Alabama (SEC/Big Ten/Notre Dame) |
| Jan. 1 | Cotton | Arlington, Texas | Michigan State (Big Ten champ) vs. Mississippi State (at-large) |
| Jan. 1 | Rose | Pasadena, California | Auburn (CFP No. 2) vs. Oregon (CFP No. 3) |
| Jan. 1 | Sugar | New Orleans | Florida State (CFP No. 1) vs. TCU (CFP No. 4) |
OTHER BOWLS
| DATE | BOWL | LOCATION | MATCHUP |
| Dec. 20 | New Orleans | New Orleans, La. | Louisiana-Lafayette (Sun Belt) vs. Wyoming (MWC) |
| Dec. 20 | New Mexico | Albuquerque, N.M. | Nevada (MWC) vs. UTEP (C-USA) |
| Dec. 20 | Las Vegas | Las Vegas, Nev. | Boise State (MWC No. 1) vs. USC (Pac-12 No. 6) |
| Dec. 20 | Idaho Potato | Boise, Idaho | Air Force (MWC) vs. Western Michigan (MAC) |
| Dec. 20 | Camellia | Montgomery, Ala. | South Alabama (Sun Belt) vs. Toledo (MAC) |
| Dec. 22 | Miami Beach | Miami, Fla. | Memphis (American) vs. BYU (BYU) |
| Dec. 23 | Boca Raton | Boca Raton, Fla. | Middle Tennessee (C-USA) vs. Northern Illinois (MAC) |
| Dec. 23 | Poinsettia | San Diego, Calif. | Colorado State (MWC) vs. Navy (Navy) |
| Dec. 24 | Bahamas | Nassau, Bahamas | Bowling Green (MAC) vs. Lousiana Tech (C-USA) |
| Dec. 24 | Hawaii | Honolulu, Hawaii | Utah State (MWC) vs. Rice (C-USA) |
| Dec. 26 | Heart of Dallas | Dallas, Texas | Rutgers (B1G Nos. 8-9) vs. Marshall (C-USA) |
| Dec. 26 | Quick Lane | Detroit, Mich. | Penn State (B1G Nos. 8-9) vs. NC State (ACC Nos. 7-9) |
| Dec. 26 | St. Petersburg | St. Petersburg, Fla. | UCF (American) vs. UAB* (ACC No. 10) |
| Dec. 27 | Military | Annapolis, Md. | North Carolina (ACC Nos. 7-9) vs. Temple (American) |
| Dec. 27 | Sun | El Paso, Texas | Louisville (ACC Nos. 3-6) vs. Utah (Pac-12 No. 5) |
| Dec. 27 | Independence | Shreveport, La. | Cal* (ACC Nos. 7-9) vs. South Carolina (SEC Nos. 9-10) |
| Dec. 27 | Pinstripe | Bronx, N.Y. | Georgia Tech (ACC Nos. 3-6) vs. Maryland (B1G Nos. 5-7) |
| Dec. 27 | Holiday | San Diego, Calif. | UCLA (Pac-12 No. 3) vs. Iowa (B1G Nos. 2-4) |
| Dec. 29 | Liberty | Memphis, Tenn. | Missouri (SEC Nos. 3-8) vs. Stanford* (Big 12 No. 5) |
| Dec. 29 | Russell Athletic | Orlando, Fla. | West Virginia (Big 12 No. 3) vs. Duke (ACC No. 2) |
| Dec. 29 | Texas | Houston, Texas | Texas A&M (SEC Nos. 3-8) vs. Oklahoma St. (Big 12 No. 4) |
| Dec. 30 | Music City | Nashville, Tenn. | Kentucky (SEC Nos. 3-8) vs. Boston College (ACC Nos. 3-6) |
| Dec. 30 | Belk | Charlotte, N.C. | Georgia (SEC Nos. 3-8) vs. Miami (ACC Nos. 3-6) |
| Dec. 30 | San Francisco | Santa Clara, Calif. | Arizona (Pac-12 No. 4) vs. Wisconsin (B1G Nos. 5-7) |
| Jan. 1 | Citrus | Orlando, Fla. | LSU (SEC No. 2) vs. Ohio State (B1G Nos. 2-4) |
| Jan. 1 | Outback | Tampa, Fla. | Nebraska (B1G Nos. 2-4) vs. Ole Miss (SEC Nos. 3-8) |
| Jan. 2 | Armed Forces | Fort Worth, Texas | Cincinnati (American) vs. Texas State* (Army/Big 12 No. 7) |
| Jan. 2 | TaxSlayer | Jacksonville, Fla. | Florida (SEC Nos. 3-8) vs. Minnesota (B1G Nos. 5-7) |
| Jan. 2 | Alamo | San Antonio, Texas | Baylor (Big 12 No. 2) vs. Arizona State (Pac-12 No. 2) |
| Jan. 2 | Cactus | Tempe, Ariz. | San Diego State* (Big 12 No. 6) vs. Washington (Pac-12 No. 7) |
| Jan. 3 | Birmingham | Birmingham, Alab. | Houston (American) vs. Tennessee (SEC No. 9-10) |
| Jan. 4 | GoDaddy | Mobile, Alab. | Central Michigan (MAC) vs. Arkansas State (Sun Belt) |
* Replacement for a conference without enough eligible teams.
Stewart Mandel is a senior college sports columnist for FOXSports.com. He covered college football and basketball for 15 years at Sports Illustrated. His new book, “The Thinking Fan’s Guide to the College Football Playoff,” is now available on Amazon. You can follow him on Twitter @slmandel. Send emails and Mailbag questions to Stewart.Mandel@fox.com.
