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Bowl projections for the College Football Playoff semifinals & 38 more games
Yes, it’s that time of year. Every Tuesday the rest of the season I’ll get out my magic dartboard and predict the postseason destinations of 80 -- yes it’s now 80 -- FBS teams.
Speaking of which, after projecting out each conference, I consider it much more likely than not that there won’t be 80 bowl-eligible teams. I got to 79, and that was being overly optimistic on a few borderline teams’ prospects. Sadly, should that happen, the bowls would have to start plucking 5-7 teams. I tabbed Arizona, mostly because I’m being overly pessimistic about the 5-4 Wildcats and also because the new Arizona Bowl is being played in their own stadium.
As a refresher, last year the ACC, Big Ten and SEC instituted pool systems for their bowl lineups in which they essentially slot their own teams, meaning there’s no longer a straightforward pecking order. For instance, I placed Virginia Tech, which is just trying to get to 6-6, higher than I normally would because its fans are likely to turn out for revered coach Frank Beamer's finale (in Charlotte?)
Also, teams may get placed in a less prestigious bowl due to geography or to avoid repeat matchups. For example, I’ve slotted potentially 10-2 Wisconsin in the Holiday Bowl because it’s played in a Florida game the past two seasons.
Note that I reversed course from my Forward Pass column Monday and tabbed Memphis, not Temple, as my projected AAC and thus Group of 5 champ. I think I got too caught up in that Notre Dame game.
COLLEGE FOOTBALL PLAYOFF BOWLS
| DATE | BOWL | LOCATION | MATCHUP |
| Dec. 31 | Peach | Atlanta | Iowa (at-large) vs. Memphis (Group of 5) |
| Dec. 31 | Cotton | Arlington, Texas | Alabama (CFP No. 2) vs. Clemson (CFP No. 3) |
| Dec. 31 | Orange | Miami | Ohio St. (CFP No. 1) vs. Stanford (CFP No. 4) |
| Jan. 1 | Fiesta | Glendale, Ariz. | Notre Dame (at-large) vs. Baylor (at-large) |
| Jan. 1 | Rose | Pasadena, Calif. | Michigan St. (B1G) vs. Utah (Pac-12) |
| Jan. 1 | Sugar | New Orleans | LSU (SEC) vs. TCU (Big 12) |
OTHER BOWLS
| DATE | BOWL | LOCATION | MATCHUP |
| Dec. 19 | Cure | Orlando, Fla. | Akron* (American) vs. Arkansas St. (Sun Belt) |
| Dec. 19 | New Mexico | Albuquerque | Utah State (MWC) vs. Rice (C-USA) |
| Dec. 19 | Las Vegas | Las Vegas | Boise St. (MWC No. 1 or BYU) vs. UCLA (Pac-12 No. 6) |
| Dec. 19 | Camellia | Montgomery, Ala. | South Alabama (Sun Belt) vs. Central Michigan (MAC) |
| Dec. 19 | New Orleans | New Orleans | Appalachian St. (Sun Belt) vs. Southern Miss (C-USA) |
| Dec. 21 | Miami Beach | Miami | Temple (American) vs. W. Kentucky (C-USA) |
| Dec. 22 | Idaho Potato | Boise | Nevada (MWC) vs. Ohio (MAC) |
| Dec. 22 | Boca Raton | Boca Raton, Fla. | East Carolina (American) vs. NIU (MAC) |
| Dec. 23 | Poinsettia | San Diego | San Diego St. (MWC) vs. Washington* (Army) |
| Dec. 23 | GoDaddy | Mobile, Ala. | Toledo (MAC) vs. Ga. Southern (Sun Belt) |
| Dec. 24 | Bahamas | Nassau | Bowling Green (MAC) vs. La. Tech (C-USA) |
| Dec. 24 | Hawaii | Honolulu | Tulsa (American) vs. BYU (MWC or BYU) |
| Dec. 26 | St. Petersburg | St. Petersburg | Houston (American) vs. Marshall (C-USA) |
| Dec. 26 | Sun | El Paso, Texas | Pittsburgh (ACC Nos. 3-6) vs. Oregon (Pac-12 No. 5) |
| Dec. 26 | Heart of Dallas | Dallas | Buffalo* (Big 12) vs. Middle Tennessee (C-USA) |
| Dec. 26 | Pinstripe | Bronx, N.Y. | Duke (ACC Nos. 3-6) vs. Indiana (B1G Nos. 5-7) |
| Dec. 26 | Independence | Shreveport, La. | NC State (ACC Nos. 7-9) vs. Kentucky (SEC Nos. 9-10) |
| Dec. 26 | Foster Farms | Santa Clara, Calif. | Washington St. (Pac-12 No. 4) vs. Northwestern (B1G Nos. 5-7) |
| Dec. 28 | Military | Annapolis, Md. | Miami (ACC Nos. 7-9) vs. Navy (American) |
| Dec. 28 | Quick Lane | Detroit | W. Michigan* (B1G Nos. 8-9) vs. Louisville (ACC Nos. 7-9) |
| Dec. 29 | Arizona | Tucson | Colorado St. (MWC) vs. Arizona*+ (C-USA) |
| Dec. 29 | Armed Forces | Fort Worth, Texas | Air Force (MWC) vs. La.-Lafayette* (B1G Nos. 8-9) |
| Dec. 29 | Russell Athletic | Orlando, Fla. | Florida St. (ACC No. 2) vs. Oklahoma St. (Big 12 No. 3) |
| Dec. 29 | Texas | Houston | Mississippi St. (SEC Nos. 3-8) vs. Texas Tech (Big 12 No. 4) |
| Dec. 30 | Birmingham | Birmingham, Ala. | Cincinnati (American) vs. Auburn (SEC No. 9-10) |
| Dec. 30 | Belk | Charlotte, N.C. | Arkansas (SEC Nos. 3-8) vs. Virginia Tech (ACC Nos. 3-6) |
| Dec. 30 | Music City | Nashville, Tenn. | Tennessee (SEC Nos. 3-8) vs. Minnesota (B1G Nos. 5-7) |
| Dec. 30 | Holiday | San Diego | Cal (Pac-12 No. 3) vs. Wisconsin (B1G Nos. 2-4) |
| Jan. 1 | Outback | Tampa, Fla. | Penn St. (B1G Nos. 2-4) vs. Texas A&M (SEC Nos. 3-8) |
| Jan. 1 | Citrus | Orlando, Fla. | Florida (SEC No. 2) vs. Michigan (B1G Nos. 2-4) |
| Jan. 2 | TaxSlayer | Jacksonville, Fla. | Ole Miss (SEC Nos. 3-8) vs. North Carolina (ACC Nos. 3-6) |
| Jan. 2 | Liberty | Memphis, Tenn. | Georgia (SEC Nos. 3-8) vs. Kansas St. (Big 12 No. 5) |
| Jan. 2 | Alamo | San Antonio | Oklahoma (Big 12 No. 2) vs. USC (Pac-12 No. 2) |
| Jan. 2 | Cactus | Tempe, Ariz. | West Virginia (Big 12 No. 6) vs. Arizona St. (Pac-12 No. 7) |
* -- replacement for a conference without enough eligible teams
+ projected 5-7 team
Stewart Mandel is a senior college sports columnist for FOXSports.com. He covered college football and basketball for 15 years at Sports Illustrated. You can follow him on Twitter @slmandel and Facebook. Send emails and Mailbag questions to Stewart.Mandel@fox.com.
