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All for Tennessee Official SEC and New Year's Six Bowl Projections After Week 5
Oct 1, 2016; Athens, GA, USA; Tennessee Volunteers quarterback Joshua Dobbs (11) is lifted in the air by defensive back Todd Kelly Jr. (24) after throwing the winning touchdown pass on the last play on the game against the Georgia Bulldogs during the fourth quarter at Sanford Stadium. Tennessee defeated Georgia 34-31. Mandatory Credit: Dale Zanine-USA TODAY Sports
Here are the official All for Tennessee SEC and New Year’s Six Bowl Projections following Week Five of the college football season.
Now that we are fully into October, it’s time to begin our weekly bowl projections. As the official FanSided page for the Tennessee Vols, we’ll be focusing our bowl projections on the SEC and the New Year’s Six.
That way we keep all the conference games and the national picture relevant.
As we get set to bring you our first round of bowl projections, it’s important to note that we don’t base these on our College Football Playoff Watch or our Power Rankings. Power Rankings are based on who is playing the best at the time.
Our playoff watch is what our rankings would be on a week-to-week basis based solely on the body of work, not who we think the better team is.
The bowl projections, however, factor in the better team. They also factor in what the body of work will look like for the teams at the end of the year based on their talent and what they’ve already done.
That’s why they are projections.
We also separated them based on tiers. We have pre-New Year’s Day bowls, New Year’s Day bowls, New Year’s Six bowls, and College Football Playoff bowls.
However, it’s important to note that this year, since New Year’s Day is on a Sunday, the New Year’s Day bowls are either on Dec. 31 or Jan. 2. But they are all in the same class.
Right now, it appears as if 11 SEC teams will be able to reach a bowl game this year. We can almost guarantee that the conference will have nine teams getting in. One SEC East team and the Mississippi State Bulldogs remain up in the air.
We will be able to trim our projections in the future, but for this week, we will treat it as if all 11 teams will get to six wins. So here are our official Bowl Projections following Week Five of the college football season.
Aug 28, 2016; Houston, TX, USA; General exterior view of NRG Stadium before a NFL football game between the Arizona Cardinals and the Houston Texans. NRG Stadium will play host to Super Bowl LI on Feb 5, 2017. Mandatory Credit: Kirby Lee-USA TODAY Sports
Pre-New Year’s Day Bowl Projections Part I
Texas Bowl: Wednesday, Dec. 28 at 9 p.m.; NRG Stadium; Houston, Texas
Arkansas Razorbacks vs Oklahoma State Cowboys
This is a tribute to the depth of the SEC West. In any other conference, Bret Bielema’s Arkansas Razorbacks would be more than capable of making a New Year’s Day bowl game. But there are six teams in the SEC playing better football than them right now.
So in our bowl projections, we have the, heading to Houston to face the Oklahoma State Cowboys. This is the best lower-level bowl spot for them. It’s close, and it’s a chance to play a border team in Texas.
Birmingham Bowl: Thursday, Dec. 29 at 2 p.m.; Legion Field; Birmingham, Ala.
Mississippi State Bulldogs vs South Florida Bulls
Mississippi State has a lot of work to do to be able to get to 6-6 this year, but if they are able to do it, this is the bowl they’ll likely go to. The Bulldogs will almost certainly finish last in the SEC West this year as Dan Mullen’s team rebuilds.
But our bowl projections are favorable to them because if they make it to the Birmingham Bowl, they’ll face an AAC team. The South Florida Bulls are 4-1 right now and atop their division in the AAC, but they’re not better than three other teams in the conference. So they’ll end up here.
Belk Bowl: Thursday, Dec. 29 at 5:30 p.m.; Bank of America Stadium; Charlotte, N.C.
Georgia Bulldogs vs North Carolina Tar Heels
This is probably the most elite bowl game of the lower level bowls. Kirby Smart’s team has a great chance to make a statement here in his first year. As he rebuilds, we have his team finishing third in the SEC East. That’s worse then the first three teams in the SEC West, so they’ll likely finish sixth or seventh in the conference.
But this is a great bowl game for them to go to, and they’ll face the fourth or fifth best team in the SEC in the North Carolina Tar Heels. That’ll be a draw from both sides.
Sep 20, 2014; Memphis, TN, USA; General view of the Liberty Bowl before the game between the Memphis Tigers and the Middle Tennessee Blue Raiders at Liberty Bowl Memorial Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Justin Ford-USA TODAY Sports
Pre-New Year’s Day Bowl Projections Part II
Liberty Bowl: Friday, Dec. 30 at Noon; Liberty Bowl; Memphis, Tenn.
Missouri Tigers vs TCU Horned Frogs
The Missouri Tigers are the Mississippi State Bulldogs of the SEC East. They have to win every one of the games they’re supposed to win to get bowl eligible in Barry Odom’s first year. However, we have them doing that in our bowl projections. And Memphis is a perfect location for this 6-6 SEC team, as it’s only five hours away.
Missouri fans will travel there, and the TCU Horned Frogs, who are likely to finish in the middle of the Big 12, will come up for this game. It’d be a bad match-up for Missouri, but at least they’d draw some fans and excitement.
Music City Bowl: Friday, Dec. 30 at 3:30 p.m.; Nissan Stadium; Nashville, Tenn.
Auburn Tigers vs Virginia Tech Hokies
Gus Malzahn’s Auburn Tigers enjoyed a major boost after beating the LSU Tigers, and they look to be on a roll. However, as we’ve mentioned, the SEC West is so loaded that we can’t put them in an elite bowl in our bowl projections. It’s hard for us to objectively say they’ll keep this up.
So Auburn will face a resurgent Virginia Tech Hokies team in first-year head coach Justin Fuente. They are likely to go on a run in the ACC but not win the Coastal. That’ll put them back in Tennessee, where they played the Battle at Bristol. And it will make this an exciting game to watch between two cutting-edge offenses.
Jan 1, 2015; Orlando, FL, USA; The newly renovated Florida Citrus Bowl during the 2015 Citrus Bowl in Orlando, Florida. Missouri wins 33-17 over Minnesota. Mandatory Credit: Jim Dedmon-USA TODAY Sports
New Year’s Day Bowl Projections
TaxSlayer Bowl: Saturday, Dec. 31 at 11 a.m.; EverBank Field; Jacksonville, Fla.
Florida Gators vs Michigan State Spartans
Yes, it’s on Dec. 31, but it counts as a New Year’s Day bowl game. Anyway, the Florida Gators are likely to finish second in the SEC East this year unless they lose to the Georgia Bulldogs. That second-place finish, though, will still be below the top four teams of the SEC West. So as a lower-level team, they’ll at least get to stay in state.
In our bowl projections, the Gators will face a rebuilding Michigan State team in what used to be the Gator Bowl. It will be your usual, exciting, SEC vs Big Ten bowl match-up.
Citrus Bowl: Saturday, Dec. 31 at 11 a.m.; Camping World Stadium; Orlando, Fla.
Ole Miss Rebels vs Wisconsin Badgers
This game features the best SEC team and the best Big Ten team that did not make it to a New Year’s Six bowl game. Because of the way they’ve played, we have the Ole Miss Rebels right now as the third best team in the SEC West…and the fourth best team in the conference overall. So they will head to the Citrus Bowl in our bowl projections this week.
Meanwhile, the Wisconsin Badgers have a solid team and will still win the Big Ten West despite losing to the Michigan Wolverines. However, they’ll still have three losses after losing to the Ohio State Buckeyes and losing the Big Ten Championship. That’ll keep them out of the New Year’s Six.
Outback Bowl: Monday, Jan. 2 at 1 p.m.; Raymond James Stadium; Tampa, Fla.
LSU Tigers vs Nebraska Cornhuskers
The LSU Tigers will find a resurgence with Ed Orgeron at the helm as head coach. They first showed it last week against the Missouri Tigers, and it is going to continue for the rest of the year. As a result, they won’t win the SEC, but they’ll move up in the conference to finish as one of the top four teams in the West.
In our bowl projections, that’s enough to get them to the Outback Bowl. The Nebraska Cornhuskers will come close just like the Wisconsin Badgers to a New Year’s Six game. But they’ll also lose twice, once to Wisconsin. And that’ll place them here.
Jan 9, 2016; Phoenix, AZ, USA; A general view of the Orange Bowl trophy at media day at Phoenix Convention Center. Mandatory Credit: Matthew Emmons-USA TODAY Sports
New Year’s Six Bowl Projections Part I
Orange Bowl: Friday, Dec. 30 at 8 p.m.; Hard Rock Stadium; Miami Gardens, Fla.
Louisville Cardinals vs West Virginia Mountaineers
With their loss to the Clemson Tigers, the Louisville Cardinals are likely eliminated from a New Year’s Six bowl game. But they’ll likely win out with the game against the Houston Cougars being the one possible exception. And even if they lose that game, they’ll still have the body of work to get to a New Year’s Six bowl.
So with Clemson in the Final Four, the next best ACC team will go to the Orange Bowl, and that’s Louisville. They’ll face a West Virginia Mountaineers team whose favorable schedule gives it a great chance to finish in the Top Two of the Big 12. Finishing that high will get you into a New Year’s Six game, and they’ll probably head to the Orange Bowl as well. This could be an epic match-up.
Cotton Bowl: Monday, Jan. 2 at 1 p.m.; AT&T Stadium; Arlington, Texas
Texas A&M Aggies vs Baylor Bears
The Texas A&M Aggies and two other teams from the SEC will all be in contention to get to the College Football Playoff in our bowl projections. But we likely predict that only one will go, and the others will reach the New Year’s Six games. Although the Sugar Bowl gets first dibs, the Aggies would likely be the perfect pick for the Cotton Bowl. It’s a New Year’s Six game in Texas, and they’d draw fans from everywhere.
Meanwhile, the Baylor Bears look like the clear favorite to win the Big 12 Championship. However, even if they go undefeated, their pathetic schedule should keep them out of the playoff. So that puts them here. This would be a great showdown between two Texas teams, and fans would fill the stadium in a heartbeat.
Dec 29, 2014; Los Angeles, CA, USA; General view of the Leishman trophy at media day for the 2015 Rose Bowl at the L.A. Hotel Downtown. Mandatory Credit: Kirby Lee-USA TODAY Sports
New Year’s Six Bowl Projections Part II
Rose Bowl: Monday, Jan. 2 at 5 p.m.; Rose Bowl; Pasadena, Calif.
Ohio State Buckeyes vs Stanford Cardinal
Urban Meyer’s Ohio State Buckeyes are clearly one of the five most talented teams in college football this year. However, they are also a very young team. As a result, we have them losing one game this year and finishing second in the Big Ten. Since the Big Ten champion will get into the playoff, we have them going to the Rose Bowl in our bowl projections.
Meanwhile the Stanford Cardinal are in hot water after David Shaw’s team lost badly to the Washington Huskies over the weekend. However, they still have a great chance to run the table. And doing that would put them at No. 2 in the Pac-12. Just like the Big Ten, the Pac-12 team is reaching the playoff. So our Rose Bowl is still a Big Ten/Pac-12 match-up, even if it’s a consolation game.
Sugar Bowl: Monday, Jan. 2 at 8 p.m.; Mercedez-Benz Superdome; New Orleans, La.
Tennessee Volunteers vs Houston Cougars
The Tennessee Vols are already 5-0 and likely guaranteed a 10-win season. To potentially get to 11 wins, they would need to win the SEC East, which is likely, and win one of three games among their next two and in the SEC Championship. They are more than capable of doing that. As a result, we have them as a clear-cut favorite to get to a New Year’s Six game in our bowl projections.
However, they would be the team to face the Group of Five champion to get into the New Year’s Six. The Houston Cougars present a great match-up for the Vols. Houston is clearly the best team in the Group of Five, and they will likely get in with one loss this year. This game would be a match-up between two exciting quarterbacks. For the Vols, it would be their first elite bowl game since 1999 and their first Sugar Bowl since the end of the 1990 season.
Jul 21, 2015; Dallas, TX, USA; College Football Playoff executive director Bill Hancock speaks to the media during the Big 12 Media Days at Omni Dallas. Mandatory Credit: Kevin Jairaj-USA TODAY Sports
College Football Playoff Semifinal Part I
Chick-Fil-A Peach Bowl: Saturday, Dec. 31 at 3 or 7 p.m.; Georgia Dome; Atlanta, Ga.
College Football Playoff Semifinal
Alabama Crimson Tide vs Washington Huskies
Right now, we don’t even have the Alabama Crimson Tide or the Washington Huskies in our College Football Playoff Watch, but as we have already mentioned, that’s based on where our rankings are in the moment.
These are our projections. And our projections have the Tide and Huskies both winning out to win their respective conferences.
Nick Saban’s Crimson Tide have a brutal road ahead of them in the SEC West, but we will not bet against them until they lose. Even if they do lose, they could still win out, win the conference, and get to the playoff. That’s our more likely scenario.
Meanwhile, the Washington Huskies have played an awful schedule to date. However, their blowout win over the Stanford Cardinal counts for something. And if they keep winning, their schedule strength will go up. Right now, they are in perfect position to go undefeated. Winning the Pac-12 Championship will then put them as a clear-cut College Football Playoff team.
Their schedule, though, will be an issue compared to other teams on here. As a result, we have them as a No. 4 seed while the Tide go into the game as a No. 1 seed. Because Alabama is the No. 1 seed, they get the advantage of playing close to home, which is what the Peach Bowl would be for them.
So we would get the epic showdown of the South’s genius in Nick Saban and the Northwest’s genius in Chris Petersen.
Jan 9, 2016; Phoenix, AZ, USA; General view of the college football playoff trophy during media day at Phoenix Convention Center. Mandatory Credit: Joe Camporeale-USA TODAY Sports
College Football Playoff Semifinal Part II
Fiesta Bowl: Saturday, Dec. 31 at 3 or 7 p.m.; University of Phoenix Stadium; Glendale, Ariz.
College Football Playoff Semifinal
Clemson Tigers vs Michigan Wolverines
And welcome to the final game of our bowl projections. The Clemson Tigers and Michigan Wolverines are both generating a ton of hype right now after huge wins last Saturday, so they seem like the favorites to challenge the Alabama Crimson Tide for the king’s throne.
Clemson came away with arguably the most thrilling victory of the season after beating the Louisville Cardinals 42-36. That game will allow the Tigers to run the table in the ACC, and they can even afford a loss to the Florida State Seminoles at this point as long as they win every other game. That is a huge likelihood, so this team will get into the playoff.
They are probably only the third most talented team in their own division. However, Dabo Swinney’s team, led by Deshaun Watson, will have the body of work.
The Tigers will face the Michigan Wolverines. Jim Harbaugh’s team has lots of talent, and they have the experience now. As a result, we have predicted from the start that they would get the best of the Ohio State Buckeyes this year in what could be the game of the century. When that happens, they will be the team to go to the College Football Playoff.
And while Alabama will be the No. 1 seed, these two teams will both be right there. This will truly be a game on a neutral field in Arizona. It will be Clemson’s cutting-edge, high-powered offense against Michigan’s traditional, pro-style, physical play. That makes for an epic showdown.
Sep 5, 2016; Orlando, FL, USA; The AFCA Coaches Trophy presented by Amway, prior to kickoff of Florida State Seminoles and Mississippi Rebels. The Waterford Crystal Football will be presented to the No. 1 team in the Amway Coaches Poll and national champion at the end of the season. It has been awarded to the Coaches National Champion since 1986 and made available to all Coaches Poll winners since 1950. Mandatory Credit: Kim Klement-USA TODAY Sports
National Title Game Projection
College Football Playoff National Championship
Monday, Jan. 9; Raymond James Stadium; Tampa, Fla.
Alabama Crimson Tide vs Michigan Wolverines
It’s arguably going to be the most thrilling national championship game you could think of. These are two physical teams that base their wins off solid quarterback play, a great running game, and amazing defense.
It’s Nick Saban vs Jim Harbaugh. The most storied SEC program against the most storied Big Ten program. And, above all, North vs South.
Seriously, how much better can you get?
Alabama would get here by destroying the Washington Huskies in the Peach Bowl, a game that would be a complete embarrassment to the Pac-12. Saban would make Chris Petersen look like an amateur in the process.
Meanwhile, the Clemson Tigers are simply not as good as they were last year. But after a lucky win over the Louisville Cardinals, they will have enough of a resume to get to the College Football Playoff.
That’s when Deshaun Watson and Co. will face a much better Michigan Wolverines team. Michigan’s defense would suffocate Watson, and the Tigers are not as deep on defense this year as they were last year. So they’d give up lots of plays too.
Winner: Michigan Wolverines
Right now, the Alabama Crimson Tide are our No. 1 team in the country. But the Wolverines have better and more experienced talent this year. And as an overall in-game coach, I’d venture to say Jim Harbaugh is a bit better than Nick Saban.
Saban just has better talent.
As a result, our bowl projections end with Alabama playing Michigan in the national championship game and losing a close one. However, this could change next week.
Everything we do here is week to week, but at this point, we have more faith in the Wolverines. So we are picking them to win it all following Week Five of the college football season.
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