Like the rest of its Florida brethren, the Buccaneers were on the outside looking in during the playoffs last year, and in Tampa’s case, the franchise hasn’t won a postseason game since its Super Bowl XXXVII win over the Raiders to close the 2002 season. But don’t be fooled by the Bucs’ 6-10 final tally in 2015; Tampa started the season 6-6 before faceplanting down the stretch and has plenty of talent to work with. Now it’s up to new head coach Dirk Koetter, the team’s offensive coordinator last season, to figure out how to make those pieces fit. One obvious place for improvement is on the defensive side of the ball, where Tampa Bay gave up 26.1 points per game and the third-most points per drive in the NFL last year. To that end, the Bucs will benefit greatly from the additions of Robert Ayers at defensive end, Brent Grimes at cornerback and Daryl Smith at linebacker — to say nothing of the team’s first-round draft choice, former Florida defensive back Vernon Hargreaves.
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Winston played well, if not exceptionally, after going No. 1 overall in the 2015 draft, and by all accounts, he’s looking even better going into 2016. The former Florida State standout has slimmed down and hunkered down in the film room and feels due for a breakout sophomore season.
Typically you wouldn’t describe a kicker a player to watch, but it’s also not often that a team trades up to draft one in the second round. Another ex-‘Nole, Aguayo is the most accurate kicker in NCAA history and -- preseason stumbles aside -- should dramatically improve a Tampa kicking unit that made just 72.5 percent of its field goals last year, third worst in the NFL.
Evans has all the tools to be an elite wideout in the NFL, but he’s got to start holding on to the ball. Last season, the Texas A&M product led the league in dropped passes — including five in one game — and caught just three touchdown passes after snagging 12 as a rookie. If he starts finding the end zone again in Year 3, watch out. FANTASY SPIN
Even if you work with the assumption that starting running back Doug Martin will maintain a high level of play in the first year of a long-term contract and stay completely healthy in the process, Charles Sims still has standalone value thanks to his receiving prowess. Sims caught 51 passes in just his second year in the league. He also flashed a complete skill set while averaging 4.9 yards a carry. If Martin falters or misses time, Sims is the kind of back who could easily pick up the three-down workload and put up big fantasy numbers.
(All lines courtesy of Bovada.com, as of 8/31)
Season win total over/under: 7.5 (over +115, under -145)
Odds to win the Super Bowl: 100/1. There's just too much change going on in Tampa Bay to consider betting on the Bucs to win the Super Bowl, even at 100-to-1. While we're here, though, let's be clear. This team will be better than the championship odds indicate. There's no reason for the Bucs to be on equal footing as the Niners and Browns.
One thing we wish we could bet on: How much the Bucs will regret drafting a kicker. We'd say "when" they regret drafting a kicker, but that buyer's remore must have kicked in by now. By all measures, Aguayo is an outstanding kicker. He might be the best ever. But there's so little extra value in "the greatest kicker" relative to just "one of the best," and the Bucs have holes up and down their current roster. Using a second-rounder on a kicker is just befuddling.
October 10, at Carolina
Tampa Bay might face the cruelest Week 1-5 schedule in the entire league — one that mercifully comes to a close on the road against the defending NFC champs. The Bucs’ Week 6 bye will be a welcome sight after this Monday night showdown against the Panthers, a division rival Tampa hasn’t beaten since 2012.
October 30, vs. Oakland
After the bye, Tampa Bay travels to San Francisco, only to return home to face Oakland in a game that could be one of the most entertaining matchups this year. The Raiders are a team on the rise in the AFC, and both clubs feature a host of talent on offense. The odds of a February Super Bowl rematch are slim, but this one should be fun.
December 11, vs. New Orleans
Last year’s December slide started with a home loss to the Saints, so the Bucs will be looking for revenge when the teams meet for the first time in 2016 in Week 14. They’ll play again on Christmas Eve, with the two games likely deciding whether Tampa Bay finishes on the right side of .500 for the first time since 2010.
We say: 9-7
WhatIfSports simulation says: 6-10
-- Sam Gardner, D.J. Foster (fantasy), Andrew Lynch (betting)
