It is now widely and justifiably assumed that Emmanuel Dapidran Pacquiao has been touched by greatness. A career that began 14 years ago at a weight of 106 pounds is now expected to flourish against a man who, not long ago, was regarded as the most formidable 147-pounder in the world.
Pacquiao's gifts have been recently celebrated with an appearance on Jimmy Kimmel's television program, and a five-page spread in Time. Even The New York Times, which ceased diplomatic relations with boxing years ago, has deigned to cover the Pacquiao phenomenon.
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The forecasts for his future are impossibly giddy. It's as if greatness were a fungible commodity. Once he's done being a great fighter, he can be a great politician. Or a great crooner. His choice. Not bad for a boy who left home for good when his father ate his dog.
Still, anyone who saw Pacquiao's rendition of "Sometimes When We Touch" on Kimmel should acknowledge the propaganda with just a bit of caution. Sure, he's a way better welterweight than he is a tenor. But let's not get carried away here.
I'm not saying Pacquiao isn't the rightful favorite. I expect him to win, especially if Miguel Cotto has trouble with the 145-pound catch weight. But at 3-to-1 against Cotto — a guy with a single loss to an opponent who probably cheated — the odds have been hyped out of whack.
Two years ago, Cotto earned a unanimous decision against Shane Mosley to retain his 147-pound belt. The natural welterweight who won that night in Madison Square Garden would beat this Pacquiao, who's fought at 140 or higher just twice. What's more, I submit that the fighter who seemed comfortably ahead of Antonio Margarito though the first six rounds of their fight 16 months ago at the MGM Grand would've beaten Pacquiao easily, as well.
Those six rounds were a masterful display of skill. Cotto would jab and slip, duck and counter — with hooks to the body and uppercuts that caught Margarito flush on the chin.
"He was fighting the perfect fight against Margarito," Pacquiao's trainer, Freddie Roach, told me some weeks ago.
Still, as perfect as Cotto appeared to be, that chin of Margarito proved a little better. That night saw Margarito become boxing's Terminator. No matter what Cotto hit him with, Margarito kept coming forward, running him down.
As it ended, with Cotto taking a knee — twice — in the 11th round, his face looked like something out of splatter flick.
