Green Bay Packers 2016 preview: Aaron Rodgers must return to form
The Packers’ usually high-powered offense sputtered last season in ways not seen since before Brett Favre arrived in Green Bay almost a quarter-century ago. But there’s a good chance the three big problems – Jordy Nelson’s torn ACL, Eddie Lacy’s belly fat and perhaps the league’s slowest set of tight ends – have all been addressed. Nelson is back at practice, Lacy did the P90X thing with Tony Horton, and Jared Cook signed on to give the Packers a speedy threat down the seam. What was supposed to be Mike McCarthy’s best offensive line as coach of the Packers but finished the season as a taped-together mess is also back to full health. An improving defense led by a stellar young secondary made its biggest change at defensive tackle, where first-round pick Kenny Clark is hoping to be the disruptive force the retired B.J. Raji hadn’t been since his first two years in the league.
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The two-time league MVP looked like this a lot last season. The health of his offense (see above) crumbled around him, but the usually cool Rodgers too often seemed uneasy with his continually altered surroundings. The Packers expect more from him, and there’s little doubt he’ll deliver it after posting a career-low passer rating in 2015.
Last year’s starting tight end, Richard Rodgers, put up respectable numbers, but he’s a possession option at best. Cook, signed as a free agent after three years with the Rams and four with the Titans, gives the Packers’ offense the speed it has been missing at tight end since Jermichael Finley’s career was cut short by a neck injury in 2013.
Matthews is a six-time Pro Bowl selection who has made it to his last two while moving from his accustomed outside pass-rushing linebacker position to the inside in order to patch holes in the Packers defense. No more. Green Bay intends to turn Matthews loose on the corner again, and if he’s healthy that’ll give QBs reason to worry.
The Packers obviously lost their primary deep threat when Nelson tore his ACL last August. Nelson’s absence hurt both No. 2 wideout Randall Cobb and Aaron Rodgers, because with the Pack unable to stretch the field, opposing defenses could lock down more on Cobb’s short routes. Cobb dropped off from a 91-1,287-12 line in 2014 to 79-829-6 last season. With Nelson back and apparently ready to roll, Cobb should look more like his 2014 self. As a late third-/early fourth-round fantasy pick, he should offer pretty good value.
(All lines courtesy of Bovada.com, as of 8/31)
Season win total over/under: 10.5 (over -175, under +145)
Odds to win the Super Bowl: 6/1. The Packers will undoubtedly be in the championship hunt all season. With McCarthy back calling the plays on offense and everyone healthy on the field, this is an obviously formidable team. Yet at 6-to-1, there's not a lot of extra value in betting on Green Bay to win the Super Bowl. You'll be sweating this bet throughout the playoffs if you take a swing. But if you can't resist, maybe look for a parlay on the Packers winning it all and Aaron Rodgers winning MVP.
One thing we wish we could bet on: Aaron Rodgers leading the NFL in passing yards. Oh, wait, we can bet on this — and it's outstanding value. Bovada has Rodgers at 10/1 to be the most prolific passer in the NFL this season, behind Drew Brees, Ben Roethlisberger, Philip Rivers and Matt Ryan.
September 18, at Minnesota
Most expect the Packers and Vikings to run neck-and-neck for the NFC North title again this season – Minnesota ended Green Bay’s run of four straight division championships last season – and they’ll get a first look at each other in the Vikings’ first regular-season game in their new stadium. Cue the gjallarhorn.
December 11, vs. Seattle
The Packers beat Seattle in Green Bay last season after losing twice to the Seahawks – including that gruesome finish to the NFC championship game – the year before. NFC supremacy is usually on the line when these two teams meet, and it’ll be no different this year.
December 24, vs. Minnesota
Packers-Vikings on Christmas Eve on the frozen tundra, likely with the NFC North title hanging in the balance? I think we can all drink (egg nog) to that.
We say: 11-5, Divisional Round playoff loss
WhatIfSports simulation says: 10-6, Divisional Round playoff loss
-- Dan Graf, John Halpin (fantasy), Andrew Lynch (betting)
