Saturday night, boxing fans get what is sure to be one of the biggest events of the year. Whether Floyd Mayweather-Victor Ortiz will live up to the expectations remains to be seen — but the matchup certainly has fans intrigued.
Is Ortiz the young, strong, hungry fighter who finally presents a true challenge to Mayweather? Or will he simply be another notch on the belt of a fighter who, love him or hate him, has beaten everyone in front of him with relative ease for nearly two decades.
Let’s take a look inside at the specifics of the bout:
Fighters: Floyd “Money” Mayweather, age 34, (41-0 [25 KOs] of Grand Rapids, Mich., currently living in Las Vegas) vs. “Vicious” Victor Ortiz, age 24, (29-2-2 [22 KOs] of Garden City, Kansas, currently living in Oxnard, Calif., left-hander), WBC welterweight champion
Where: MGM Grand, Las Vegas
When: Sat., 7 p.m. ET
TV: HBO PPV
Undercard: Saul "Canelo" Alvarez vs. Alfonso Gomez (from Staples Center, Los Angeles); Erik Morales vs. Pablo Cesar Cano; Jessie Vargas vs. Josesito Lopez
Last fight: Mayweather: unanimous decision over Shane Mosley on May 1, 2010; Ortiz unanimous decision over Andre Berto April 16, 2011
The Breakdown
Boxing ability: Mayweather is the best boxer in the sport today. It can be argued who the best pound-for-pound fighter is between Mayweather and Manny Pacquiao, but Mayweather is the best pure boxer. He performs basically every fundamental aspect of the sport to perfection from years of dedicated training. Ortiz has solid boxing skills but often abandons them to land power punches. Even if Ortiz sticks to strict boxing technique, he cannot hope to outbox Mayweather.
Physical condition: Both fighters are in tremendous shape. They are dedicated and relentless in their preparation, not neglecting a single aspect of training. Both will enter the ring in condition to go 12 rounds and have whatever is needed in the tank to win. Mayweather is the more naturally gifted athlete, but that is countered by the fact he is 10 years older than Ortiz.
Power: This is where Ortiz must make his stand. Don’t get me wrong, Mayweather has power. His power is often underrated or overlooked due to the focus on his defense and technique. The fact is, Mayweather probably could have more knockouts, but his safety-first nature leads to decisions in bouts that could have been knockouts if Mayweather had pressed the action. Ortiz is a true power puncher. He has put nearly every fighter he has ever fought — win, lose, or draw — on the canvas. He has the power to hurt any fighter near his weight class, and if able to connect on Mayweather he will be able to do damage.
Speed: Ortiz is a fast fighter. He has quick movement on his feet and fast hands that fire good combinations. Mayweather has truly elite speed. He can move in and out of range using his feet as fast as anyone. He can slip a punch and counter with a shot of his own in the blink of an eye. He will be the faster fighter on Saturday.
Defense: Again this one goes to the one who calls himself “Money.” Similar to boxing skills, Mayweather’s defense is the best in the game. Many fighters have come to the ring convinced they had the game plan to get him, and found out quickly that actually making contact with the most elusive fighter in the planet is far easier said than done.
Mayweather can defend multiple ways. He is a master at the shell defense, slipping punches by rolling his left shoulder. He can employ a high guard and head movement, causing punches to glance of his guard with no effect. Then you mix in his expert footwork and you have a near-impossible target.
Ortiz is not bad defensively when he fights smart, but often gets caught up in brawling, causing his guard to slip and leaving him open to counters.
Chin: Ortiz’s chin is a question. He went down and bowed out against Marcos Rene Maidana. One should note Maidana is one of the hardest punchers in the game, and he hit Ortiz with some serious bombs. Then Ortiz turns around almost two years later and absorbs punches from the hard-hitting Andre Berto that sent him to the canvas. Ortiz not only got up but fought with more aggression after being dropped. Which Ortiz comes Saturday is anyone’s guess.
Mayweather is so good defensively that his chin is rarely tested. The few times it was, including fights against Zab Judah and Shane Mosley, who landed big shots in the early rounds against Mayweather, his chin held up just fine.
Remember, this is a fight with a puncher who drops almost everyone and a defensive boxer who has never gone down. One immovable force will have to back up at some point.
Experience: Ortiz has obtained some good experience in his bouts with Maidana, Lamont Peterson and Berto, but he is a pup compared to Mayweather. While many critique Mayweather’s choice of opponents, he has faced some top competition. Maybe more important, the PPV spotlight has become second nature to Mayweather. This will be Ortiz’s first experience under boxing’s brightest lights, giving Mayweather a big advantage in the category of which fighter will be better prepared to deal with the extra distractions and expectations of a fight of this magnitude.
Wear and Tear: Ortiz is only 24. He has been in some tough fights, especially with Maidana, but he has plenty left in the tank so this is not a problem for him. Mayweather has really never been in any career-changing wars and maintains great care of his body, so he should also not be affected here. At the same time, Mayweather is 34, and has had issues with his hands, so a slight edge goes to Ortiz in this category.
Intangibles: This fight will come down to one aspect. It will be won by the guy who delivers the one-two. No, not the jab-cross. Step 1 is who wins the battle of the lead foot, the key in a southpaw vs. orthodox fight. Whoever gets his lead foot consistently outside his opponent’s will have the edge in delivering No. 2, the cross down the middle. Whether it is Mayweather’s straight right or Ortiz’s booming left, the fight could be decided on this punch and who gets to use that punch by getting the lead foot into position.
Keys to Victory
Mayweather: Let Ortiz come to him and make him eat the straight right all night. Use his perfected shoulder roll to slip shots and counter with the right down the middle, which is an orthodox fighter’s best weapon against the southpaw. Mix in his leaping left hook and his underused jab, as well, to keep Ortiz guessing, and he has a simple but effective recipe for beating the strong pressure fighter.
Not much else can be said. The beauty to what Mayweather does is he has mastered the art of boxing. For all his outbursts outside of the ring, he never makes mistakes physically or mentally inside it. As long as he does what he has done in past fights he is more than likely coming out the winner.
Ortiz: This section could go on forever to list all the things Ortiz will have to do right to pull off the upset. In short, Ortiz must box smart, at times using the jab, which he forgets too often. He must be “vicious” when the moment calls for it, but it must be a controlled aggression. Lastly, he must keep his composure against the most controlled fighter he has ever seen in the ring.
Technically, Ortiz must win the battle of the lead foot discussed above. Mayweather can afford to lose that battle and get away with it by shoulder rolling punches. Ortiz will have no such luck. If Ortiz loses the footwork battle, he will eat right hands in what will be a long, painful night. He also needs to circle to his right away from Mayweather’s right hand (Ortiz normally circles the “wrong” way to his left).
Prediction
Last week before Vitali Klitschko vs. Tomasz Adamek, I said I found myself wanting to pick the underdog until sanity took over. I am having déjà vu. While I see ways for Ortiz to win, being bigger, stronger and younger, in the end I think the majority obvious opinion is correct in this case.
Ortiz will have his moments early and into the middle rounds, but Mayweather is simply too good and too experienced for the young lion. Ortiz will land some good shots and even may have Mayweather in trouble a few times. But the master boxer will survive and adjust, as he does so well every time, and take control just like he did in Round 2 of the fight with Mosley after getting rocked. By the late rounds he will be in full control, out-boxing his young opponent.
I do think the determined Ortiz who fought Berto will be the one in the ring and he will not get knocked out. He will be getting hurt late, but his resilience, along with Mayweather’s safe tactics, will allow him to see the final bell.
Mayweather wins somewhere around eight rounds to four.
