With Serbia set to face France on Friday in Belgrade in the Davis Cup final, the question is this: What will be the deciding factor? The court and Serbia's home advantage? The doubles play? Or will it come down to Novak Djokovic, the Serbs' mercurial star?
More than one observer thinks Djokovic, the world's No. 3-ranked player, is no sure thing.
"He's a selective competitor," Tim Henman said Thursday at the Aegon ATP Seniors Championships at the Royal Albert Hall in London. "Sometimes he will fight to the death, and then there are other times when he defaults in Grand Slam semifinals."
Other former pros chimed in on the subject of Djokovic.
"He was as tight as a drum against the Czech in a previous round," former French star Henri Leconte Leconte offered. "You never know how he is going to react. He has breathing problems."
If France captain Guy Forget's selection of Gilles Simon over Michael Llodra for the second singles berth came as a surprise, Leconte had a ready explanation.
"The court is very slow," Leconte said at the Aegon ATP Seniors Championships. "I have just flown in from Belgrade and I watched the guys practicing on it. Llodra likes it fast, so playing Simon was logical."
It still is asking a lot of the quiet, former top-10 player who has endured an injury-plagued year. Simon is a fighter, but when he plays Djokovic in front of a packed stadium of wildly partisan Serbs, it will take more than steady groundstrokes to earn France a precious point.
By then, Gael Monfils will have played Janko Tipsarevic in the opening match, and if the athletic Frenchman has survived that, France will be in with a chance. But most players I spoke to think the Serbs are the favorites.
Former Wimbledon doubles champion Peter McNamara pointed to the court as a factor in Serbia's favor.
"Monfils needs a faster court," the Australian said. "You saw how well he played in the ATP event in Paris a couple of weeks ago. That court was lightning quick. But I think it will hinge on the doubles, as it so often does in Davis Cup."
Llodra, who was so instrumental in helping France oust the Cup holders, Spain, in the quarterfinal in July, will at least have a chance to impose himself in the doubles with veteran Arnaud Clement as his partner. Although a late change can still be made, it seems unlikely that Djokovic will play the doubles, leaving Viktor Troicki to partner with big doubles expert Nenad Zimonjic.
"Serbia is the likely winner," Former U.S. doubles ace Peter Fleming said. "Given the situation, I think there is more chance of the French guys imploding. Although with Djokovic, you never know."
Goran Ivanisevic, the former Wimbledon champion from Croatia, put the whole thing in perspective.
"It is a historic moment in Davis Cup," he said. "We have already won the Cup for Croatia and now the second country that was once part of Yugoslavia is going to have a chance to win. That is amazing for tennis in our region. Obviously the Serbs are big rivals of ours, but I would be happy for Zimonjic if they won. He is a good guy and a big friend of mine."
There have been few stories over the past decade more extraordinary than the sudden emergence of Serbia as a world tennis power. Besides Djokovic, who has won the Australian Open, Ana Ivanovic and Jelena Jankovic also have done Serbia proud — Ivanovic winning the French Open and Jankovic making it to No. 1 in the world.
To have reached the Davis Cup final so early in the fledgling nation's history is another amazing achievement, and this weekend, tennis will knock soccer out of the headlines all across the Balkans.
