NATAL, Brazil --
Let's just come right out and say it: the United States men's national team's first game at the 2014 World Cup is a must-win affair. Counter-intuitive as it may seem to anoint their opener the make-or-break contest, that's just about the whole truth.
Yes, there will be two more group stage games to play before two of four teams from Group G are knocked out. But it is well worn by now that the Americans drew a lamentable lot and that they'll probably need to get some kind of result against either Portugal or Germany as well as a win over Ghana. If they'd like to stand any sort of chance of advancing, that is.
And to advance is the objective. Following the group stage, this becomes a one-and-done knockout tournament and anything is possible, however implausible. As ever, this World Cup will serve as a referendum on the progress of American soccer. "It's clear that as the game continues to grow in our country, so do the expectations, the media, the focus," said USA midfielder Michael Bradley.
"Over time you want to see a progress happening with the team, with the whole game in the country," added head coach Jurgen Klinsmann, who was his usual light and breezy self in the pre-game press conference. "We're growing, we're getting better. Now this is an awesome moment because it's the biggest stage you can have and we want to show that you improved. And nothing better than against the team that beat you the last two World Cups."
The road into the knockout round leads through Ghana, the very team that eliminated the USA in the group stage in 2006 and knocked them out of the round of 16 in extra time in 2010. "The first game is so important," said Bradley. "Statistically, the chances of advancing go way up if you're able to get three points from the first game. We've made no secret of the fact that all the focus is on Ghana. A good result puts us in a really good spot."
Conversely, if they should lose, the Americans face a nearly insurmountable task. They would have to beat either the world's fourth-ranked team, Portugal, or the second-ranked team, Germany. Portugal is led by the world's best player, Cristiano Ronaldo -- who seems to be recovering from a pair of niggling injuries -- and that game takes place in the erratic jungle conditions of Manaus, in the heart of the Amazon. As for Germany, there's probably no fact more telling about their unrelenting dominance than the record 11 top-3 finishes they have posted at the World Cup. As Klinsmann put it: "This is probably the most difficult group in the World Cup."
So Ghana represents the best chance to collect the bulk of the four or five points the USA likely needs. "It's like starting the whole World Cup with a final," Klinsmann said. The better to prepare, the Americans have been in camp for a month and played three friendly tune-up games stateside, all of which they won. "We've prepared well," said Klinsmann. "We are full of confidence toe approach Ghana, a team full of individual talent. It's going to be a challenge, but we are very confident."
Ghana, like four years ago and eight years ago, is the rare side that can match the Americans' physicality while probably boasting a touch more individual ability on the ball. "It's a team that causes you trouble," explained Bradley. "Especially in the attacking half of the field they have guys who have a mix of athleticism, technical ability. They can improvise and turn a half-play into a chance."
The last time around, the Americans came so very close to matching their modern high-watermark of reaching the quarterfinals -- which they last did in 2002 -- before buckling in extra time, when Asamoah Gyan scored the 2-1 winner by running down a high ball over the top. "For the majority of that game we were the ones in control and pushing things," Bradley recalled.
"I just remember them taking their chances," added striker Jozy Altidore. "That was basically the difference in that game."
Ghana remains a team that bombs forward in numbers after forcing turnovers with a high press. The USA is changed in that it now plays a more possession-oriented game, relying less on the counter-attack. "I think we're in a good position to face Ghana," said goalkeeper Tim Howard. "We've got more athleticism [in defense than in 2010], we've got more pace and that's going to be important in dealing with Ghana."
The United States camp downplayed the notion that this has become a grudge match for them. But the Ghanaians weren't buying it. "They're coming for revenge," said Gyan, scorer of that fateful goal in 2010. "They don't want us to beat them for the third time."
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There is more to deal with than just Ghana though. The weather could conspire to ratchet up the pressure on the Americans. It's hot here, and sticky humid. It started raining in biblical volumes on Thursday here in the ocean-side town of Natal. Roads have flooded, a mud slide ripped through a favela, people have been evacuated and a "state of alert" was called by the city. More rain and thunderstorms are predicted for kickoff. It's anybody's guess how the field at the leaky Arena das Dunas will hold up to such saturation.
"Whatever the circumstances are, we're going to embrace them," said Klinsmann. "If it's raining, if it's snowing, if it's thunder and lighting or whatever -- this is about football where you play in any circumstances. Field wet, field dry, heat, humidity, whatever. We're not worried about that stuff at all."
A local paper predicted that some 20,000 Americans will pack into this 45,000-capacity facility. On the eve of Team USA's seventh consecutive World Cup, optimism rules the day. "I've booked my flight down to the final," Klinsmann said in jest.
A long and bendy road that started the day Ghana knocked the USA out of the last edition of this mighty tournament in Rustenburg, South Africa on June 26, 2010 has wound here, to this rain-soaked city hard by the ocean. Until kickoff on Monday night, the United States can still have any kind of World Cup at all.
